Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
206 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING HOT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THE HEAT
WAVE WILL BREAK EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING COOLER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OUTFLOW SPARKED THE TINIEST OF POPUP SHOWERS IN NRN
GRANT/PENDLETON COUNTIES KY BUT IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION IN SW OHIO...AT LEAST NOT DEEP CONVECTION. HAVE DROPPED
WATCH #466 AND WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE ABOUT EVERY HOUR OR TWO TO
REMOVE SHOWERS/TSTORMS WHERE IT IS APPLICABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING OVER THE TOP OF AN EXPANDING RIDGE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FOR
THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS TO BE EXPANSIVE ENOUGH TO HAVE ANY MORE THAN A TEMPORARY
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAYS HIGHS. WITH LITTLE VARIATION IN DEW POINTS...THESE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH MOST LOCATIONS INTO HEAT WARNING
CRITERION /HEAT INDEX 105 OR GREATER/. IN ADDITION THIS WILL BE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT INDICES. SO EVEN IF SOME PLACES DO
NOT MEET THE THRESHOLD...THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF THE HEAT WILL
TAKE A TOLL. THUS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO ALL
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO FAVOR WARMER MOS FOR
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES. DUE TO THIS THE ENTIRE AREA
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WITH RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THE FA WILL STAY DRY
ON FRIDAY AND DURING MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AFTER THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A LOT QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE PRECIPITATION AND BEGINS TO BRING PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE
PRECIPITATION AND BRINGS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND HAVE THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL THEN LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA MAINLY IN
NORTHERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE COMPLETELY
EXITING THE AREA. AFTER SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A GENERAL DECREASE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUBBLE OVER THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE
EVENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. EXCEPT FOR CMH/LCK IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...THE TAFS SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WE RETURN TO A REPEAT OF WHAT
HAPPENED TODAY. H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH NE
FLOW DROPPING DOWN INTO THE REGION ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
MODELS HANDLE IMPULSES IN THE FLOW DIFFERENTLY...SO SOME MODELS
POP AFTN CONVECTION WHILE OTHER HOLD OFF AND TRY AND DEVELOP
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DROP IT SE INTO THE REGION.

FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE CONVECTION IN THE TAF REGION DURING THE
LAST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT WITH NO GOOD SIGNAL...THE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THE
MOMENT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1233 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-060445-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1233 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

OHZ046-055-050630-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-
155 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

AT 152 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MINERVA
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...MINERVA PARK...
COLUMBUS...GAHANNA...BEXLEY AND REYNOLDSBURG.

ALSO...HUBER RIDGE...WHITEHALL...BRICE AND BLACKLICK ESTATES ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3997 8278 3994 8278 3994 8281 3992 8281
      3986 8290 4010 8311 4021 8292 4003 8277
      4000 8277

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
213 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                39.99N 82.99W
07/05/2012  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
217 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0214 AM     HAIL             GAHANNA                 40.03N 82.88W
07/05/2012  E0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

JOHNF

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