Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
826 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S...WHICH IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE HOURLY TEMPS AS OF
01Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY
FIZZLE OUT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF RECENTLY DISSIPATED CONVECTION. EXPECT THAT THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS TREND
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS FINE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FCST...SO NO
CHANGES ARE NECESSARY WITH THIS UPDATE.

WILL FRESHEN WORDING IN ZONES AND RESEND THEM SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 627 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/
FOR 00Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP TO MVFR WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 18/03Z.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS AOA 5KFT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. VSBYS
MAY DIP BETWEEN 4-5SM BETWEEN 18/10-12Z...BUT WILL IMPROVE AS FOG
DISSIPATES BY 18/14Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HRS TOMORROW...LINGERING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 352 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A CUT OFF
LOW NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A LARGE AREA OF RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINING CONUS. ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/GEORGIA...A VORT MAX IS
SLOWLY PUSHING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS TUTT LOW HAS
AIDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWFA
HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB VIRTUALLY UNIMPEDED /SAVE FOR A SCATTERED CU
FIELD/. THE 3PM TEMPERATURE FROM MSL WAS A TOASTY 97
DEGREES...HOWEVER THE AIR MIXED SUFFICIENTLY THERE TO KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX AT A BALMY 103.

FOR THIS EVENING...OPTED TO GO ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES GIVEN THE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR AND THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HOWEVER THERE ARE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM NEARBY STORMS...AND
GIVEN THE WARM ATMOSPHERE...COULD STILL SEE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
SUNSET. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME THREATS...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS THIS
EVENING...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOIST...SO PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...LOOK FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE TUTT LOSES INTENSITY TOMORROW...BUT WITH A WEAK
APPROACHING LOW LEVEL WAVE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB.
CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE DEVELOPING AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AS
MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ANY OF THE STORMS ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES OF THE FORECAST WILL COME ON FRIDAY AS
THE SURFACE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH PWATS SURPASSING 2.0
INCHES AND SHEAR REMAINING WEAK...THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING. ALONG WITH THE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON
FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

MODELS ADVERTISE THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO HAVE SHOWN A
NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S EXPECTED.

JLL

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
830 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-181000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
830 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT SHOULD BE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY...WITH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION LIMITING ELEVATED STRESS LIMITS GOING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1020 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

TNZ097-180345-
FRANKLIN-
1020 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM
CDT...

AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A GUST FRONT FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MARION COUNTY.  AS THIS
PUSHES WEST ACROSS FRANKLIN COUNTY...A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OF 30
TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ST. ANDREWS.
  SHERWOOD...SEWANEE.
  COWAN...WINCHESTER.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8587 3522 8586 3499 8586 3499 8588
      3499 8616 3531 8616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 088DEG 18KT 3511 8585

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1116 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

ALZ008>010-180500-
DE KALB-JACKSON-MARSHALL-
1116 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB...JACKSON AND MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JERICHO TO
SYLVANIA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  FACKLER...PISGAH.
  SYLVANIA.
  MARTINTOWN.
  JERICHO.
  RAINSVILLE...HOLLYWOOD.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8575 3452 8575 3449 8577 3445 8608
      3453 8623 3499 8623 3499 8581 3486 8576
      3463 8570
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 021DEG 7KT 3502 8602 3456 8577

CA

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