Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
305 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

MID LEVEL TROF WAS KICKING OFF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA FROM THE EAST
COAST THRU ERN KY AND INTO SE MS. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF
RAINFALL SINCE THEY ARE ONLY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. A FEW STORMS
MAY ALSO BECOME SVR WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR TONIGHT WILL
KEEP LOW END CHC POP ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER
TROF. HOWEVER DO EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA TO
DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FOR THESE TWO DAYS DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROF AND A WEAK CDFNT THAT WILL APPROACH THE
CWA BY FRIDAY. AT THE MOMENT MODELS DO NOT MOVE THE CDFNT THRU OUR CWA.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CDFNT JUST NW OF THE TN VALLEY ALONG
WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF. THUS WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH AFTN AND EVENING THE BEST TIMING FOR PCPN.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHC OF SHRA AND
TSRA AS A WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BE BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE...ONE OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF THE
SERN US. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE SERN US WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE PCPN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA.

NOTE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AND MUGGY WX CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE CHC OF SHRA AND STORMS EVERY
DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/
THE AREA WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER ENHANCED. CONVECTION MAY
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HRS.
HOWEVER...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN RELATION TO THE TWO MAIN TERMINALS. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN PREVAILING VCTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 01Z THU.
AMD/UPDATES THOUGH MAY BE REQUIRED PROVIDED ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
APPROACHES ONE OF THE AIRPORTS...WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LOWERING
INTO THE MVFR CAT IN/NEAR THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY XPCTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY CIGS LOOK TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE VFR LEVELS INTO THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    72  92  73  90  73 /  30  60  30  60  40
SHOALS        73  93  74  90  74 /  30  60  30  60  40
VINEMONT      72  90  74  89  73 /  30  60  30  60  40
FAYETTEVILLE  71  91  72  89  72 /  30  60  30  60  40
ALBERTVILLE   72  90  72  89  73 /  30  60  30  60  40
FORT PAYNE    70  90  72  89  72 /  30  60  30  60  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-191015-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1235 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AROUND
THE AREA...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...TIMELY REPORTS OF GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE ATHENS            34.80N 86.95W
07/18/2012  E5.00 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF WATER WAS REPORTED COVERING BOTH
            SOUTHBOUND LANES ON HIGHWAY 31 IN ATHENS.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N ATHENS              34.83N 86.97W
07/18/2012                   LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED ON HIGHWAY 99.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
454 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S OAKLAND             34.81N 87.80W
07/18/2012                   LAUDERDALE         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON CR 15 NORTH OF OAKLAND.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
456 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE ATHENS            34.80N 86.95W
07/18/2012  E0.00 INCH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF WATER WAS REPORTED COVERING BOTH
            SOUTHBOUND LANES ON HIGHWAY 31 IN ATHENS.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
459 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE ATHENS             34.78N 86.94W
07/18/2012  E60.00 MPH       LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

KWEBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
502 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NW CROSSVILLE           34.29N 86.00W
07/18/2012                   DEKALB             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 68.

&&

KWEBER