Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.AVIATION...
NORTHERN TAF SITES (ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-10) HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF
LOUISIANA MCS AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG
AND AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MCS. NOT SURE HOW FAR
SOUTH OF I-10 EVERYTHING WILL GET LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
DUE TO A MORE CAPPED AIR MASS. FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AND MAYBE SOME FOG DEPENDING ON WHERE TODAY'S RAINS FALL. BECOMING VFR
AREA WIDE TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/

UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS DO
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE MCS TO OUR EAST.
SURFACE WINDS SHOW A BIT OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  74  93  74  94 /  30  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  94  74  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  80  89  80  89 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-131445-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO LIBERTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ179-121845-
POLK TX-
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORRIGAN...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF DIBOLL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN AND SEVEN OAKS.

LAT...LON 3067 9473 3094 9499 3111 9481 3095 9464
      3076 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 335DEG 13KT 3098 9484

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 121 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-121900-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
121 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TRINITY AND EASTERN
HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 117 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVETON AND KENNARD.

LAT...LON 3141 9513 3113 9487 3099 9518 3132 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 323DEG 15KT 3130 9517