Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG THE OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLIER MCS ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH THE COMBINED RAIN AREA THEN MOVING INTO OUR CENTRAL
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL
ALSO BRING THE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SERIES OF VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RAIN
THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO THE COAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTHWARD AND A WEAKNESS ALOFT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TRENDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
COAST. 38

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  94  72  95  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  75  94  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  79  89  79 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-131445-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO LIBERTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
136 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ198-121915-
GRIMES TX-
136 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AROUND 5 MILES NORTH OF BEDIAS... MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
GRIMES COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3056 9583 3061 9611 3078 9612 3083 9610
      3086 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 306DEG 3KT 3082 9600

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
202 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-121945-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
202 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TRINITY AND SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
TRINITY AND SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3114 9501 3100 9528 3130 9537 3134 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 348DEG 4KT 3127 9525

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 210 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ178-122000-
SAN JANCINTO TX-
210 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN JANCINTO COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLDSPRING...OR
17 MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEPHERD AND COLDSPRING.

LAT...LON 3037 9521 3066 9534 3073 9518 3048 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 342DEG 5KT 3063 9522

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ177-198-199-122130-
WALKER TX-GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALKER...
NORTHEASTERN GRIMES AND NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS...PANORAMA VILLAGE...NEW WAVERLY AND MONTGOMERY.

LAT...LON 3064 9537 3034 9535 3036 9570 3046 9598
      3073 9604
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 334DEG 14KT 3060 9569

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 423 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ176-196-198-122200-
MADISON TX-GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
423 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN GRIMES AND NORTH CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
CDT...

AT 412 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF MADISONVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON...NORTHWESTERN GRIMES AND NORTH CENTRAL
BRAZOS COUNTIES. NORTH ZULCH AND KURTEN ARE IN THE PATH.

LAT...LON 3086 9639 3093 9633 3097 9626 3099 9620
      3099 9617 3102 9613 3091 9596 3068 9614
      3085 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 32DEG 10KT 3097 9612

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