Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.AVIATION...
NORTHERN TAF SITES (ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-10) HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF
LOUISIANA MCS AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST ALONG
AND AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS MCS. NOT SURE HOW FAR
SOUTH OF I-10 EVERYTHING WILL GET LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
DUE TO A MORE CAPPED AIR MASS. FOR TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
AND MAYBE SOME FOG DEPENDING ON WHERE TODAY'S RAINS FALL. BECOMING VFR
AREA WIDE TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012/

UPDATE...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS DO
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE MCS TO OUR EAST.
SURFACE WINDS SHOW A BIT OF CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA OVER THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED
SEVERE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. 38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  74  93  74  94 /  30  30  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              95  77  94  74  93 /  30  30  10  10  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  80  89  80  89 /  30  10  20  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-131445-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
933 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM COLLEGE STATION TO LIBERTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND POSSIBLY EXTEND FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ179-121845-
POLK TX-
1256 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 1252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CORRIGAN...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF DIBOLL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN AND SEVEN OAKS.

LAT...LON 3067 9473 3094 9499 3111 9481 3095 9464
      3076 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 335DEG 13KT 3098 9484

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 121 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-121900-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
121 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TRINITY AND EASTERN
HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 117 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GROVETON AND KENNARD.

LAT...LON 3141 9513 3113 9487 3099 9518 3132 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 323DEG 15KT 3130 9517

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
136 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ198-121915-
GRIMES TX-
136 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

AT 136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AROUND 5 MILES NORTH OF BEDIAS... MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN
GRIMES COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A
SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3056 9583 3061 9611 3078 9612 3083 9610
      3086 9587
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 306DEG 3KT 3082 9600

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
202 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ163-164-121945-
TRINITY TX-HOUSTON TX-
202 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TRINITY AND SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 200 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
TRINITY AND SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3114 9501 3100 9528 3130 9537 3134 9521
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 348DEG 4KT 3127 9525

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON
TX 210 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

TXZ178-122000-
SAN JANCINTO TX-
210 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN JANCINTO COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLDSPRING...OR
17 MILES WEST OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHEPHERD AND COLDSPRING.

LAT...LON 3037 9521 3066 9534 3073 9518 3048 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 342DEG 5KT 3063 9522