Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM...POPS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED AGAIN TO CHASE TRENDS. A
HEALTHY CU FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE...BUT JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO
BE ABLE TO BREAK THRU. THE 13Z HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY...AND
IT REALLY ONLY HAS A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ACRS THE NC MTNS THRU THE
AFTN HOURS. SO POPS WERE PUSHED BACK TO LATE AFTN/EVE...WHICH ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE. TEMPS ARE STILL LAGGING. ONE THING TO NOTE
IS THAT THE MODIFIED FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT A FCST
MAX TEMP OF 87-89 STILL RESULTED IN SOME CIN. STILL EXPECT A VORT
MAX TO ENTER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN...AND THAT MAY BE ENUF TO
BREAK THE CAP. WE/LL SEE.

LATER TONIGHT...AS WITH THE CONVECTION...FCST SNDGS AND MOISTURE
PROGS ON THE NAM AND GFS ARE VAGUE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER (STRONGER) VORT MAX...CURRENTLY OVER
MO...WILL PROVIDE DECENT QG FORCING LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK...HELPING KEEP
THINGS MIXED. SO TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG. I ALSO KEEP A LINGERING SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT MAX.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHUD BE ABLE TO PUSH THRU THE REST OF THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO DEVELOP A LITTLE
CONVECTION ACRS MAINLY THE SE ZONES WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHUD BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THU AS SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS WELL. EXPECT
DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING MID LEVELS THU HELPING TO CAP THE
ATMOS. SHUD BE A DRY FCST WITH LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL. HEIGHTS FALL FRI AS SHORT WAVES DIVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF THE
CWFA. LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO HELP PRODUCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO RETURN WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WHERE
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE HIGHER...BUT SCT CONVECTION SHUD DEVELOP
ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NITE RISE TO AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND
THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THAN BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THRU
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW WITH THE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS THE AXIS OF THE LONG WAVE
EAST ON TUE WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IN IN PLACE. AT THE SFC..A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...THEN STALLS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE PERIOD. THE WAVE ON MONDAY MAY HELP DRAG THE FRONT BACK
TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF US AGAIN FOR TUE.
GOOD AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST SCT POP SAT WITH THE FRONT...THEN
GUIDANCE DIFFERS FROM DAY TO DAY WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON
WHERE ANY WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND IF THEY CAN PULL MOISTURE
BACK NORTH INTO THE CWFA. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POP SAT...SLIGHT CHC
SUN/MON THEN DRY TUE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SAT THRU MON...THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MODELS HAVING
TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVERALL. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS...THINK CONVECTION WILL GET A LATE START IN THE NC
MTNS...WITH ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE VICINITY UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
SO I PUSHED THE TEMPO BACK TO 00Z. THEN AFTER 03Z...STILL A PROB30
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. MEANWHILE...SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR SO WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE. WIND
DECREASE TO UNDER 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE A BIT VAGUE ON HOW
MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A FAIR
AMT...SO BETWEEN WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...NO FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHUD STAY FAIRLY LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SLOW TO GET GOING...SO TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS
MENTIONS HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND COVERAGE IS STILL LOW. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW BREAKS IN LOW VFR CLOUD COVER.
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS TODAY (EXCEPT
AT KAVL)...DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. BETWEEN WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THO GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WIND SHIFT ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-152030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ507-508-142130-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
439 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF LAKE LURE...OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST
OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE LURE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3553 8203 3537 8201 3538 8211 3541 8216
      3540 8223 3545 8223 3552 8215

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ508-510-142200-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
510 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN
POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MILL SPRING...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPINDALE...
  RUTHERFORDTON...HARRIS...FOREST CITY AND ALEXANDER MILLS.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3538 8185 3518 8185 3519 8197 3527 8216
      3540 8214

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

SCZ001-004-142200-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
515 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE KEOWEE
  AND WALHALLA.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3487 8292 3471 8289 3473 8314 3484 8313

MCAVOY