Severe Thunderstorm Warning 546, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

197 
WWUS52 KGSP 142035
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCC089-149-142115-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0546.000000T0000Z-120814T2115Z/
HENDERSON NC-POLK NC-
435 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN POLK
AND EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF EDNEYVILLE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF 
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE ADGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8227 3541 8216 3523 8214 3527 8235
      3533 8241 3540 8239 3541 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 279DEG 9KT 3535 8230

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER BRIEFLY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE CAROLINAS LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM...POPS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED AGAIN TO CHASE TRENDS. A
HEALTHY CU FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE...BUT JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO
BE ABLE TO BREAK THRU. THE 13Z HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY...AND
IT REALLY ONLY HAS A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ACRS THE NC MTNS THRU THE
AFTN HOURS. SO POPS WERE PUSHED BACK TO LATE AFTN/EVE...WHICH ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE. TEMPS ARE STILL LAGGING. ONE THING TO NOTE
IS THAT THE MODIFIED FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT A FCST
MAX TEMP OF 87-89 STILL RESULTED IN SOME CIN. STILL EXPECT A VORT
MAX TO ENTER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN...AND THAT MAY BE ENUF TO
BREAK THE CAP. WE/LL SEE.

LATER TONIGHT...AS WITH THE CONVECTION...FCST SNDGS AND MOISTURE
PROGS ON THE NAM AND GFS ARE VAGUE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER (STRONGER) VORT MAX...CURRENTLY OVER
MO...WILL PROVIDE DECENT QG FORCING LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK...HELPING KEEP
THINGS MIXED. SO TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG. I ALSO KEEP A LINGERING SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT MAX.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHUD BE ABLE TO PUSH THRU THE REST OF THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO DEVELOP A LITTLE
CONVECTION ACRS MAINLY THE SE ZONES WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHUD BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THU AS SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS WELL. EXPECT
DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING MID LEVELS THU HELPING TO CAP THE
ATMOS. SHUD BE A DRY FCST WITH LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL. HEIGHTS FALL FRI AS SHORT WAVES DIVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF THE
CWFA. LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO HELP PRODUCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO RETURN WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WHERE
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE HIGHER...BUT SCT CONVECTION SHUD DEVELOP
ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NITE RISE TO AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND
THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THAN BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THRU
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW WITH THE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS THE AXIS OF THE LONG WAVE
EAST ON TUE WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IN IN PLACE. AT THE SFC..A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...THEN STALLS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE PERIOD. THE WAVE ON MONDAY MAY HELP DRAG THE FRONT BACK
TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF US AGAIN FOR TUE.
GOOD AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST SCT POP SAT WITH THE FRONT...THEN
GUIDANCE DIFFERS FROM DAY TO DAY WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON
WHERE ANY WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND IF THEY CAN PULL MOISTURE
BACK NORTH INTO THE CWFA. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POP SAT...SLIGHT CHC
SUN/MON THEN DRY TUE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SAT THRU MON...THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MODELS HAVING
TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVERALL. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS...THINK CONVECTION WILL GET A LATE START IN THE NC
MTNS...WITH ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE VICINITY UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
SO I PUSHED THE TEMPO BACK TO 00Z. THEN AFTER 03Z...STILL A PROB30
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. MEANWHILE...SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR SO WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE. WIND
DECREASE TO UNDER 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE A BIT VAGUE ON HOW
MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A FAIR
AMT...SO BETWEEN WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...NO FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHUD STAY FAIRLY LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SLOW TO GET GOING...SO TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS
MENTIONS HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND COVERAGE IS STILL LOW. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW BREAKS IN LOW VFR CLOUD COVER.
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS TODAY (EXCEPT
AT KAVL)...DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. BETWEEN WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THO GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WIND SHIFT ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151445-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1039 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.