Severe Thunderstorm Warning 547, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

097 
WWUS52 KGSP 142221
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCC027-142300-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0547.000000T0000Z-120814T2300Z/
CALDWELL NC-
621 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTH OF PATTERSON...OR 3 
MILES NORTHWEST OF LENOIR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
CALDWELL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8157 3588 8162 3590 8167 3595 8168
      3610 8157 3595 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 234DEG 12KT 3596 8155

$$

MCAVOY

506 
WWUS52 KGSP 142254
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCC027-142305-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0547.000000T0000Z-120814T2300Z/
CALDWELL NC-
654 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3587 8157 3588 8162 3590 8167 3595 8168
      3610 8157 3595 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 234DEG 12KT 3603 8144

$$

MCAVOY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING THE COAST BY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...RECENT RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT COVERAGE OF TSRA
HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GA. LATEST CAPE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT VALUES RANGE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH DCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 1300 J/KG EAST OF THE MTNS. IN
ADDITION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR RANGES FROM 20 TO 30 KTS. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT...FOOTHILL STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE IN CLUSTERS...FORM
COLD POOLS...AND TRACK EAST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING
WINDS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. I WILL UPDATE
THE FORECAST FOR POP PLACEMENT AND TIMING.

AS OF 145 PM...POPS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED AGAIN TO CHASE TRENDS. A
HEALTHY CU FIELD CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE...BUT JUST DOESN/T SEEM TO
BE ABLE TO BREAK THRU. THE 13Z HRRR IS THE CLOSEST TO REALITY...AND
IT REALLY ONLY HAS A FEW CELLS DEVELOPING ACRS THE NC MTNS THRU THE
AFTN HOURS. SO POPS WERE PUSHED BACK TO LATE AFTN/EVE...WHICH ARE
PROBABLY STILL OVERDONE. TEMPS ARE STILL LAGGING. ONE THING TO NOTE
IS THAT THE MODIFIED FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT A FCST
MAX TEMP OF 87-89 STILL RESULTED IN SOME CIN. STILL EXPECT A VORT
MAX TO ENTER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN...AND THAT MAY BE ENUF TO
BREAK THE CAP. WE/LL SEE.

LATER TONIGHT...AS WITH THE CONVECTION...FCST SNDGS AND MOISTURE
PROGS ON THE NAM AND GFS ARE VAGUE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER (STRONGER) VORT MAX...CURRENTLY OVER
MO...WILL PROVIDE DECENT QG FORCING LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS AROUND. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK...HELPING KEEP
THINGS MIXED. SO TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FOG. I ALSO KEEP A LINGERING SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT MAX.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHUD BE ABLE TO PUSH THRU THE REST OF THE
CWFA DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE DOES TRY TO DEVELOP A LITTLE
CONVECTION ACRS MAINLY THE SE ZONES WITH DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...SHUD BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS AND HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THU AS SHORT WAVE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS WELL. EXPECT
DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING MID LEVELS THU HELPING TO CAP THE
ATMOS. SHUD BE A DRY FCST WITH LOWS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL. HEIGHTS FALL FRI AS SHORT WAVES DIVE TOWARD THE AREA.
THIS HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF THE
CWFA. LEE TROF DEVELOPS TO HELP PRODUCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO INCREASE AS UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD THE AREA AS
WELL. EXPECT INSTABILITY TO RETURN WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND
COOLING MID LEVELS. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE MTNS WHERE
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE HIGHER...BUT SCT CONVECTION SHUD DEVELOP
ALL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NITE RISE TO AROUND NORMAL
WITH HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND
THE 00Z ECMWF REGARDING THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THAN BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...
LONG WAVE TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND REMAINS IN PLACE THRU
THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU THE FLOW WITH THE
STRONGEST ON MONDAY. THE GFS THEN SHIFTS THE AXIS OF THE LONG WAVE
EAST ON TUE WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IN IN PLACE. AT THE SFC..A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...THEN STALLS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH
THRU THE PERIOD. THE WAVE ON MONDAY MAY HELP DRAG THE FRONT BACK
TOWARD THE AREA BEFORE IT PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF US AGAIN FOR TUE.
GOOD AGREEMENT ON AT LEAST SCT POP SAT WITH THE FRONT...THEN
GUIDANCE DIFFERS FROM DAY TO DAY WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON
WHERE ANY WAVES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND IF THEY CAN PULL MOISTURE
BACK NORTH INTO THE CWFA. HAVE GONE WITH SCT POP SAT...SLIGHT CHC
SUN/MON THEN DRY TUE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SAT THRU MON...THEN RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST NEXT 24 HOURS...AS MODELS HAVING
TOUGH TIME WITH CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER OVERALL. BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS...THINK CONVECTION WILL GET A LATE START IN THE NC
MTNS...WITH ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE VICINITY UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
SO I PUSHED THE TEMPO BACK TO 00Z. THEN AFTER 03Z...STILL A PROB30
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. MEANWHILE...SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR SO WITH POSSIBLY A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE. WIND
DECREASE TO UNDER 5 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE A BIT VAGUE ON HOW
MUCH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGER OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A FAIR
AMT...SO BETWEEN WINDS AND CLOUD COVER...NO FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHUD STAY FAIRLY LIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION SLOW TO GET GOING...SO TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS
MENTIONS HAVE BEEN PUSHED BACK AT ALL SITES. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
AND COVERAGE IS STILL LOW. AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS SHOW BREAKS IN LOW VFR CLOUD COVER.
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS TODAY (EXCEPT
AT KAVL)...DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. BETWEEN WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY...EVEN THO GUIDANCE DOES
HAVE FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WIND SHIFT ARE
EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS SHUD REMAIN LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-152030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
418 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
510 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ508-510-142200-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
510 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN
POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF MILL SPRING...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPINDALE...
  RUTHERFORDTON...HARRIS...FOREST CITY AND ALEXANDER MILLS.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3538 8185 3518 8185 3519 8197 3527 8216
      3540 8214

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

SCZ001-004-142200-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
515 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE KEOWEE
  AND WALHALLA.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3487 8292 3471 8289 3473 8314 3484 8313

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ509-510-142200-
EASTERN POLK-POLK MOUNTAINS-
520 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE ADGER...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MILL SPRING
  AND COLUMBUS.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3532 8215 3520 8218 3522 8226 3525 8234
      3529 8233 3534 8229

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ503>506-142230-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
528 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF NORTHERN MCDOWELL
COUNTY AND NORTHWEST BURKE COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  JAMES...WOODLAWN...TABLE ROCK...MARION...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD AND
  NEBO.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE
STORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3587 8169 3578 8169 3565 8202 3566 8215
      3583 8212 3585 8209 3586 8204 3588 8203
      3588 8200 3591 8198 3592 8195 3594 8196
      3600 8189

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ065-507-510-142230-
EASTERN POLK-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
541 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTHERN
POLK AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF BAT
CAVE TO MOUNTAIN HOME...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  EDNEYVILLE...CHIMNEY ROCK...LAKE LURE...LAKE ADGER...DANA AND BAT
  CAVE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3546 8226 3548 8224 3544 8215 3540 8219
      3540 8215 3532 8216 3534 8225 3540 8219
      3540 8225 3528 8235 3539 8253 3547 8239
      3546 8237 3550 8233

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NCZ501-502-142245-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
558 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLLETTSVILLE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF LENOIR...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  PATTERSON...LENOIR...GAMEWELL AND COLLETTSVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3609 8156 3598 8140 3585 8162 3593 8172

MCAVOY