Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH...INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER FL IS EXPECTED TO
OPEN UP AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST INTO GA TONIGHT...WHILE A FLAT
RIDGE REMAINS FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY SE INTO THE FOOTHILLS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BR AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER GA OPENS UP AND DRIFTS FARTHER
NORTH...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR ON WEATHER UPPER IMPULSES
ROUNDING THIS LOW REACH THE OUR AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE AT LEAST AS GREAT AS TODAY...AND EVEN
GREATER IF THE UPPER LOW CAN PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. THE HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SOMEWHAT OF A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE CLOSE OF FRIDAY. THE WEAK UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE MIDLANDS OF SC AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WHICH THEN SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AS HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
ALONG THE EAST COAST THANKS TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A WEAK NW FLOW REGIME IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST WITH GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH A LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...EXPECT THAT DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THU. LATE DAY CONVECTION ON WED SHOULD WANE
DURING THE EVENING PER LOW LEVEL CIN ADVERTISED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON THU. SEE NO REASON TO
DEVIATE FROM THE RATHER ROBUST AFTERNOON POPS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE MOUNTAIN AREAS. WILL BACK OFF POPS AGAIN THU NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL CIN DEVELOPS.

THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO FRI WITH SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO ALMOST 20KT IN THE SFC-6KM LAYER. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE AREA ON FRI. WITH THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING SHEAR EXPECT GOOD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH LIKELY POPS JUSTIFIED. SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD
GET GOING ON FRI AND POSE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. USED A BLEND OF
BIAS CORRECTED MOS TO GENERATE TEMP FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUING SHOWER/THUDNERSTORM THREAT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
OVER...OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS SAT AND SUN AFTERNOONS. THE
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT BY MON WHICH MEANS WE SHOULD RETURN
TO A MORE TYPICAL JULY PATTERN...WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION BOTH MON AND TUE. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND THANKS TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAD REGIME.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL MON AND THEN A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...BUT
UNLESS IT OCCURS OVER THE TERMINAL...A RESTRICTION IS NOT LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY TS AND A LOW VFR CIG WITH CB. A
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DOES NOT FAVOR MORNING FOG...AND MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SUGGEST LESS CUMULUS AND MORE CIRRUS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
WINDS REA EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE SW BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE MOST COVERAGE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAKING KAVL MOST VULNERABLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR RESTRICTIONS. WILL CARRY TS AND LOW VFR CIG WITH CB THIS
AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE...WHILE ANVIL
DEBRIS REMAINS. GUIDANCE STILL LIKE DAYBREAK FOG AT KAVL...BUT IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE AT FOOTHILL SITES. GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
OVERDONE AT KAVL...VFR WILL BE MAINTAINED THERE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A WESTERLY COMPONENT...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL CHANNEL UP VALLEY FROM THE NW.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE WEDNESDAY...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
THURSDAY...REMAINING INTO THE WEEKEND...AND INCREASING THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER...LOW CIGS...AND FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
345 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY
DEVELOP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE NEARLY
ANYWHERE...THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

THE EFFECTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS WILL ENHANCE THE
THREAT OF TREES FALLING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NCZ048-052-053-171915-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-MADISON-
226 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD...
SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND WESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM
EDT...

AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LUCK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SPRING
  CREEK...LUCK...LEICESTER...CANTON AND CANTO.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3564 8259 3550 8284 3573 8299 3584 8281

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NCZ049-053-505-172000-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-YANCEY-
335 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...
SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY AND WESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...OR 11 MILES
SOUTH OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3567 8215 3567 8239 3582 8237 3581 8216

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NCZ082-172015-
UNION-
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY THROUGH 415
PM EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UNIONVILLE...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONROE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WINGATE...
  UNIONVILLE...
  FAIRVIEW...
  MONROE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3490 8066 3509 8071 3513 8065 3516 8036
      3498 8032

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSONVILLE          35.32N 82.46W
07/17/2012                   HENDERSON          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON 4TH AVE WEST NEAR
            NORTH WASHINGTON ST.

&&

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NCZ049-172030-
YANCEY-
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YANCEY COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MICAVILLE...OR 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BURNSVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3595 8219 3593 8216 3582 8215 3581 8213
      3578 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8241
      3583 8242 3586 8242 3596 8246 3599 8219

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SCZ014-172045-
CHESTER-
407 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHESTER COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES EAST OF BLACKSTOCK...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHESTER...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BLACKSTOCK...

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3456 8133 3457 8133 3471 8132 3464 8097
      3454 8098

RB