Severe Thunderstorm Warning 417, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

743 
WWUS52 KGSP 171645
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SCC073-171730-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0417.000000T0000Z-120717T1730Z/
OCONEE SC-
1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OCONEE COUNTY
UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LONG CREEK...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...MOVING
SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF OCONEE
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8316 3461 8316 3462 8324 3470 8335
      3474 8335 3475 8332 3481 8330 3481 8327
      3485 8326 3493 8315 3494 8312 3501 8310
      3485 8290 3478 8288 3474 8290 3473 8286
      3465 8283 3447 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 014DEG 15KT 3469 8321

$$

RWH

743 
WWUS52 KGSP 171726
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SCC073-171736-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0417.000000T0000Z-120717T1730Z/
OCONEE SC-
126 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OCONEE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
130 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER.
STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3458 8316 3461 8316 3462 8324 3470 8335
      3474 8335 3475 8332 3481 8330 3481 8327
      3485 8326 3493 8315 3494 8312 3501 8310
      3485 8290 3478 8288 3474 8290 3473 8286
      3465 8283 3447 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 014DEG 15KT 3452 8326

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1206 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH
MID-WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH...INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1600 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED PER RADAR COVER...WITH AN
INCREASE INT EH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 26. WINDS WERE UPDATED
TO INCORPORATE THE 12Z NAM.

AT 1000 AM EDT TUESDAY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING...WHILE A WEAK
CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH FL. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
CONTROL THE STEERING FLOW OVER OUR AREA...MOVING WEAK CHANNELED
IMPULSES SW ACROSS THE AREA. THE BLUE RIDGE AND A LEE TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE WEAK SHEAR...MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE TODAY...
WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPE AND NO HINT OF A MID LEVEL CAP. PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN SOAKED GROUND FROM YESTERDAY MEANS TREES
WILL FALL MORE EASILY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...AS HEIGHTS ALOFT REMAIN HIGH...EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS MILD...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S
TO L70S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
WEAKEN SOME ON WED AS AN UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THE GFS KEEPS THE GULF LOW DOWN ACROSS SRN GA BY WED EVENING
WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING THE LOW NORTHWARD WITH AN ELONGATED
SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE NAM/EC SOLUTION WOULD IMPLY
A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SREF POPS ARE
UP AROUND 90 PERCENT. THE GFS WOULD CONFINE MOST OF IF/S POPS TO THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES IN MAV ARE UP IN THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE. MY SUSPICION IS THAT WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT
OF CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT FOR NOW I/LL HOLD
BACK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE POPS WILL BE IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE.
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE WITH EITHER SCENARIO AND I/VE
CARRIED LIKELY POPS THERE. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THAT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ON THURSDAY. THE
SHEAR IS STILL WEAK...BUT LAYER RH/S SHOULD BE HIGH. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT WON/T BE MUCH FATHER SOUTH THAN CENTRAL VA/WV BY THU
EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE GOOD PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THE FINER DETAILS WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW
QUICKLY THE SRN STREAM LOW GETS PICKED UP...BUT FOR NOW LIKELY POPS
CONTINUE TO LOOK WARRANTED ACROSS THE FA ON THURSDAY WHICH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THU NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FA ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. THE
BNDRY STILL LOOKS AS THROUGH IT WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE. OWING TO THE
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME I WON/T RAISE POPS...BUT IF THE
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE WE/LL NEED SOMETHING IN THE LIKELY RANGE FOR
SATURDAY. THE GFS BEGINS TO BUILD IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WEST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES CONFINED
TO THE COAST. THIS YIELDS A WARM AND MAINLY DRY DAY. HOWEVER...THE
EC CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION AND MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE FA SUN AND MON. AT THIS POINT I CAN/T SAY
WHICH IS RIGHT...THOUGH HPC CONTINUES TO DOUBT THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS. THEREFORE...I/D EXPECT A WETTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING FOR DAY/S 6 AND 7...BUT I WON/T MAKE ANY
CHANGES THIS SHIFT SO AS TO AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING ON SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...FEW TO SCT HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO THIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVER SATURATED SOIL DURING THE INITIAL HOUR OF THE 12Z TAF.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS...GSP VIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH GROUND FOG LOCATED AT THE ASOS PLATFORM. I WILL
KEEP ALL TERMINALS VFR THIS MORNING. LEE TROF WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD SPREAD EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I
WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OR TWO OF PROB30 FOR ALL TAF SITES. CU BASES
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 040 TO 060 KFT. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...A SMALL CHANCE
FOR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST CHC WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDER...CLOUD
COVER...AND FOG OVER SATURATED SOIL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AS SUPPORTED BY MODEL SOUDNINGS. WEAKER TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER BURN CATEGORIES.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCAVOY
NEAR TERM...JAT/NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-180930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
520 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION
AGAIN TODAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL AREAS
OF WIND DAMAGE. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY
DEVELOP. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE NEARLY
ANYWHERE TODAY...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER CHANCE ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.

OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF INSTANCES OF
TREES FALLING MAINLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SATURATED SOILS. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN AGAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1004 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE DENVER            35.53N 81.02W
07/16/2012                   LINCOLN            NC   POST OFFICE

            TREE LIMBS DOWN AROUND THE DENVER AREA.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE PUMPKINTOWN        34.97N 82.61W
07/16/2012                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES IN ROADWAY ALONG SC135 NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MT
            TABOR CHURCH RD.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW PACOLET            34.94N 81.81W
07/16/2012                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            A FEW LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ALONG BETHESDA RD.

&&

TW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

NCZ052-059-063-171630-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
1141 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND
SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM EDT...

AT 1137 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BALSAM...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOLF
  MOUNTAIN...WAYNESVILLE...SUNBURST AND BALSAM.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3555 8304 3538 8279 3537 8279 3531 8286
      3532 8287 3529 8292 3526 8293 3520 8300
      3543 8320

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

GAZ010-171630-
RABUN-
1143 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 1230 PM
EDT...

AT 1140 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TATE CITY...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  RABUN...TIGER...MOUNTAIN CITY...LAKEMONT...DILLARD AND CLAYTON.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3492 8360 3494 8360 3495 8356 3499 8356
      3500 8355 3499 8352 3500 8340 3488 8322
      3473 8341 3475 8343 3473 8346 3491 8363

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001-171630-
HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-STEPHENS-
1148 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HABERSHAM...NORTHWESTERN
STEPHENS...SOUTHERN RABUN AND WESTERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM
EDT...

AT 1143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TURNERVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  RABUN...NACOOHE LAKE...TURNERVILLE...TALLULAH FALLS...LAKEMONT...
  HOLLYWOOD...CLARKESVILLE AND LONG CREEK.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3483 8326 3458 8322 3459 8353 3477 8355

07