Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. STILL EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OR
MOVE INTO THE ERN ARES AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. 20 TO 25 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THAN MONDAY. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE
EVEN OVER THE ERN CWFA WHERE CLOUDS EARLY CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
INSTABILITY LOWER. THAT SAID...THE WRN CWFA HAS A BETTER CHC OF SVR
STORMS GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION COULD LINGER LATE INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AS ATMOS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
CANNOT  AGREE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OR TIMING OF THE BETTER CHANCES
WITH DIFFERING PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT SCT CONVECTION ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE
QUITE MILD BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WED AS DOES THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO ROTATES INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT. THEREFORE...
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH FAIRLY EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION SHUD AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE SHOULD BE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LESS CLOUDS AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LIKE TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF SVR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT MAY BE MORE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT
TERM...AS THE CWFA REMAINS WITHIN A DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
EAST...WHILE A STATIONARY TROF LINGERS OVER THE LWR-MID MS VALLEY.
THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING AND UPR DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA INVOF THE UPR TROF. HOWEVER...A LLVL WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN UNDER THE TROF...AND RESULT IN INCREASED S/SELY LLVL FLOW
ACRS THE REGION FROM WED NGT THRU FRI. FCST SNDGS LOOK VERY MOIST
WITH PWATS REMAINING 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE INCREASED UPSLOPE AND OVERALL PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUD RESULT IN HIGH POPS PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD
THRU FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE IN THE NEAR
TERM...SOME SORT OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA (ESP IF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS HIGH FOR ANY
GIVEN PERIOD(S)). MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON QPF FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE UPR TROF FURTHER WEST AND HAS LESS QPF OVR THE
REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CMC. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A
PRONOUNCED PSEUDO-WEDGE BNDRY SET UP ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
CWFA WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL ADD MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO THREAT IN THIS AFTN/S HWO WITH GENERAL WORDING. MAX
TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNDER
CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...UPR RIDGE SHUD CONTINUE TO BUILD JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE STATIONARY TROF INVOF THE MS VALLEY WILL LIFT OUT
AND TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES SUN-MON. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE DEEPEST WITH THE TROF...AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLN BY
HPC. WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN. THE HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS
THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS DAYS 5-7. SO POPS SHUD
TREND LOWER AND TEMPS HIGHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR SHUD LIFT QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...LEAVING
VFR AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCE. EXPECT TSRA TO BE IN THE AREA MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWING TAF RULES...HAVE VFR TEMPO
TS BEGINNING AT 19Z. WILL AMD FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS AS CELLS APPROACH
THE AIRFIELD. CONVECTION COULD LINGER ALL NIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA...SO
PROB30 IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE NORMAL TIME PERIOD. VFR WITH
PROB30 TSRA BY LATE MORNING WED. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH CURRENT SLY WINDS THRU
EVENING...THEN TURN TO THE MDL CONSENSUS OF NELY OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TRENDS TO KCLT...XCPT CONVECTION ON THE DOORSTEP
AT KAVL. HAVE STARTED WITH TEMPO TS AND RESTRICTIONS THERE. REST OF
THE SITES GET THEM AT 20Z. SC SITES AND KAVL THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE CONVECTION...SO INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TEMPO THERE. VCTS OR PROB30 OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION COULD
LINGER THRU THE NITE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY ALL BUT KAND...BUT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL...BY MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBY LIKELY KAVL/KHKY.
EXPECT VFR WITH PRO30 BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHUD HAVE A SLY
COMPONENT SC SITES INTO EVENING...WITH NLY NC SITES. NELY WIND
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORN.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. THIS COULD OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING....HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY
LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
THREAT WILL INCREASE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

NCZ070-102130-
GASTON-
505 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GASTON COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF BESSEMER CITY...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GASTONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  DALLAS...
  STANLEY...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3524 8110 3524 8132 3527 8133 3539 8137
      3540 8097

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE LANDRUM           35.15N 82.17W
07/10/2012                   SPARTANBURG        SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN ON FRANK CLINTON RD AND ASHEVILLE HWY.
            WSPA FACEBOOK. TIME ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.

&&

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PENDLETON               34.65N 82.78W
07/10/2012                   ANDERSON           SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 INJ *** A PERSON WAS TAKEN TO THE HOSPITAL AFTER
            BEING HIT BY A FALLING TREE ON MECHANIC STREET IN
            PENDLETON. EXTENT OF INJURIES UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW GREENVILLE        34.82N 82.44W
07/10/2012                   GREENVILLE         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN AT JCT OF ANDERSON RD AND WHITE HORSE
            RD. TIME ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.

&&

ARK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

SCZ006-012-102245-
GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-
559 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HICKORY TAVERN...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAURENS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  HICKORY TAVERN...
  GRAY COURT...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3449 8233 3450 8233 3472 8232 3472 8208
      3447 8203

NED