Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM...CONVECTION BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE. STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DCAPE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WRN CWFA WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PLENTIFUL. LESS OVER THE ERN CWFA
WHERE CLOUDS LINGER. THE WRN SECTIONS HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING
ANY SEVERE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED THAT WORDING IN THOSE AREAS.
NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SVR POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. RAISED
HIGHS OVER THE WEST AND LOWERED OVER THE EAST FOR THE ABOVE REASONS.

AS OF 1035 AM...A FEW SA/TSRA ARE MOVING INTO THE NRN MTNS THIS
MORNING. THOSE MAY DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINS BY NOON...OR THEY COULD LINGER WHILE
CONVECTION BEGINS ELSEWHERE. A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER
THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN MONDAY GIVEN THAT THE LOW CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL RETARD HEATING. STILL...EXPECT MODERATE OR NEAR MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AS 12Z RAOB PROFILES SHOW A SIMILAR TEMP
TRACE TO MONDAY. DCAPE WILL BE LOWER AS WELL AS THE PROFILES HAVE
MOISTENED SOMEWHAT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY
WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGER AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES IN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES WITH THE ENHANCEMENT OF AN ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAX.
THEREFORE...STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF TSRA TODAY...BUT A
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS
INCREASED GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING
STORMS.

AS OF DAYBREAK...AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS RAIN SHOULD STEADILY
DISSIPATE OVER THE CLT METRO AREA AND NW PIEDMONT THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY DELAY THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP
INTO THAT PART OF THE FCST AREA. TEMP TRENDS LOOK OK.

FOR TODAY...DEEP MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH PW IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE AND A FAVORABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE TROF AXIS TO THE
WEST. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN LAID OUT ACROSS
TN AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE HEATING UNLEASHES CAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN
AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE
FAILURE OF YESTERDAYS FCST TO WORK OUT. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE KEPT
PRECIP CHANCES LIMITED TO LIKELY...IN SPITE OF CATEGORICAL SREF. THE
HIGH PRECIP CHANCES ONLY GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO THE CHANCE RANGE
LATE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...BUT SOME CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD A GUIDANCE
BLEND...SO SOME WARMING INTO THE 90S SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTH WHERE PRECIP MIGHT BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE BUMPED MIN
TEMPS UP A BIT TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER. SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
A POSSIBILITY...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT BE AS RICH IN DCAPE
AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...SO THAT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHEAR MAY ORGANIZE STORMS MORE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS. WILL
HAVE TO MIND PERSISTENT OR TRAINING CELLS FOR INCREASING FLOOD
THREAT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AT 3 AM EDT TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND
FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ARE OUT OF PHASE...WITH
THE CANADIAN PORTION OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSING...AND THE PORTION IN
THE USA REMAINING IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY.
ON THURSDAY A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT IN THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...AND THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE NORTH. AGAIN...THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS MIT MOVES NORTH. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES LEAVING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE UP THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...MAKING THAT THE AREA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE
GREATEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. ADDING TO THIS
SCENARIO...THE NAM INCREASES SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THURSDAY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE FRONTAL LOCATION...FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE MODERATE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
UNDER CLOUDS COVER...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
IN ELEVATED MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL LING OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO MONDAY...WHILE UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  UPPER IMPULSES LEAVING THE
TROUGH MAY ADD SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE BACK BUILDING ATLANTIC
RIDGE KEEPS THE IMPULSE TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS  RIDGE
FLATTENS THE RIDGE ON MONDAY...AND TAKES A SHORTWAVE TO THE
APPALACHIANS....WHILE THE ECMWF RIDGE HOLD UPPER SYSTEMS AT BAY.
THIS OLD STATIONARY FRONT FROM NC TO THE GULF STATES BEGINS LIFTING
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY REACHING THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY.
THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT WITH THE RIDGE CENTER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO WARMTH AT THE
MID LEVELS THAT MIGHT CAP CONVECTION. CHANCE POPS WILL BE
CARRIED...HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE IMPULSES AFFECT THE MOUNTAINS
HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE LOWEST...AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE POSSIBLE.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DUE
TO MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR SHUD LIFT QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...LEAVING
VFR AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCE. EXPECT TSRA TO BE IN THE AREA MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWING TAF RULES...HAVE VFR TEMPO
TS BEGINNING AT 19Z. WILL AMD FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS AS CELLS APPROACH
THE AIRFIELD. CONVECTION COULD LINGER ALL NIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA...SO
PROB30 IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE NORMAL TIME PERIOD. VFR WITH
PROB30 TSRA BY LATE MORNING WED. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH CURRENT SLY WINDS THRU
EVENING...THEN TURN TO THE MDL CONSENSUS OF NELY OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TRENDS TO KCLT...XCPT CONVECTION ON THE DOORSTEP
AT KAVL. HAVE STARTED WITH TEMPO TS AND RESTRICTIONS THERE. REST OF
THE SITES GET THEM AT 20Z. SC SITES AND KAVL THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE CONVECTION...SO INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TEMPO THERE. VCTS OR PROB30 OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION COULD
LINGER THRU THE NITE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY ALL BUT KAND...BUT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL...BY MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBY LIKELY KAVL/KHKY.
EXPECT VFR WITH PRO30 BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHUD HAVE A SLY
COMPONENT SC SITES INTO EVENING...WITH NLY NC SITES. NELY WIND
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORN.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. THIS COULD OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING....HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

NCZ065-509-101815-
HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUXEDO...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SALUDA...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3530 8228 3529 8229 3525 8227 3520 8227
      3519 8232 3519 8236 3518 8237 3521 8239
      3517 8244 3526 8247 3532 8228

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

NCZ064-065-101815-
HENDERSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
144 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 138 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR MOUNTAIN...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BREVARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3529 8247 3518 8244 3517 8249 3516 8249
      3515 8253 3516 8255 3515 8255 3512 8266
      3519 8272 3535 8255

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ010-101815-
RABUN-
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE MOUNTAIN...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLAYTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PINE MOUNTAIN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3500 8312 3495 8311 3495 8312 3494 8312
      3492 8315 3493 8315 3491 8316 3492 8317
      3490 8319 3485 8327 3500 8333

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

NCZ037-101845-
DAVIE-
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF FARMINGTON...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FARMINGTON...
  MOCKSVILLE...
  BERMUDA RUN...
  ADVANCE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3583 8043 3583 8048
      3595 8071 3603 8070 3606 8068 3605 8049
      3607 8047 3606 8045 3601 8041 3599 8041
      3596 8037 3589 8036

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ017-101830-
HABERSHAM-
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOSSY CREEK...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BALDWIN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3458 8364 3461 8341 3457 8341
      3449 8345 3448 8346 3449 8354 3445 8359
      3443 8361 3443 8362 3451 8367

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

SCZ002-003-101845-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PICKENS AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKY BOTTOM...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3509 8278 3507 8278 3507 8276 3510 8272
      3510 8270 3512 8268 3512 8266 3500 8262
      3497 8283 3505 8287

LANE