Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

622 
WWUS52 KGSP 101917
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

SCC007-045-059-102000-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0387.000000T0000Z-120710T2000Z/
ANDERSON SC-LAURENS SC-GREENVILLE SC-
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GREENVILLE...WESTERN LAURENS AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
400 PM EDT...

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
DONALDSON CENTER...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING
NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SIMPSONVILLE.
  DONALDSON CENTER.
  MAULDIN AND WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 8225 3448 8232 3438 8249 3472 8269
      3485 8241 3478 8214 3473 8207 3469 8205
      3466 8199 3459 8189 3430 8210 3431 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 181DEG 18KT 3470 8236

$$

NED

536 
WWUS52 KGSP 102001
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

SCC007-045-059-102009-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0387.000000T0000Z-120710T2000Z/
ANDERSON SC-LAURENS SC-GREENVILLE SC-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...
WESTERN LAURENS AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400
PM EDT...

HOWEVER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH 
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENVILLE COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN 
GREENVILLE AND LAURENS COUNTIES LATER. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA 
OUTLETS OR NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER 
INFORMATION.


LAT...LON 3442 8225 3448 8232 3438 8249 3472 8269
      3485 8241 3478 8214 3473 8207 3469 8205
      3466 8199 3459 8189 3430 8210 3431 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 181DEG 18KT 3491 8236

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
GEORGIA...AND WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WRN CWFA WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY EXISTS. STILL EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OR
MOVE INTO THE ERN ARES AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. 20 TO 25 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THAN MONDAY. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE
EVEN OVER THE ERN CWFA WHERE CLOUDS EARLY CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
INSTABILITY LOWER. THAT SAID...THE WRN CWFA HAS A BETTER CHC OF SVR
STORMS GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION COULD LINGER LATE INTO THE EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AS ATMOS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
CANNOT  AGREE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OR TIMING OF THE BETTER CHANCES
WITH DIFFERING PLACEMENT OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...
HAVE KEPT SCT CONVECTION ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE
QUITE MILD BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS MORNINGS.

THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WED AS DOES THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALSO ROTATES INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT. THEREFORE...
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH FAIRLY EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION. THIS
CONVECTION SHUD AGAIN BECOME NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE SHOULD BE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LESS CLOUDS AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY LIKE TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE THREAT OF SVR STORMS WILL
CONTINUE...BUT MAY BE MORE LIMITED. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT
TERM...AS THE CWFA REMAINS WITHIN A DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW REGIME.
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR
EAST...WHILE A STATIONARY TROF LINGERS OVER THE LWR-MID MS VALLEY.
THE BULK OF THE QG FORCING AND UPR DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST
OF OUR AREA INVOF THE UPR TROF. HOWEVER...A LLVL WAVE WILL
STRENGTHEN UNDER THE TROF...AND RESULT IN INCREASED S/SELY LLVL FLOW
ACRS THE REGION FROM WED NGT THRU FRI. FCST SNDGS LOOK VERY MOIST
WITH PWATS REMAINING 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW. THE INCREASED UPSLOPE AND OVERALL PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUD RESULT IN HIGH POPS PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD
THRU FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE IN THE NEAR
TERM...SOME SORT OF FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA (ESP IF CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS HIGH FOR ANY
GIVEN PERIOD(S)). MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON QPF FOR FRIDAY. THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPS THE UPR TROF FURTHER WEST AND HAS LESS QPF OVR THE
REGION COMPARED TO THE GFS AND CMC. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A
PRONOUNCED PSEUDO-WEDGE BNDRY SET UP ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
CWFA WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL ADD MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN/HYDRO THREAT IN THIS AFTN/S HWO WITH GENERAL WORDING. MAX
TEMPS THRU THE SHORT TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNDER
CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND MIN TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...UPR RIDGE SHUD CONTINUE TO BUILD JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE STATIONARY TROF INVOF THE MS VALLEY WILL LIFT OUT
AND TRACK ACRS THE GREAT LAKES SUN-MON. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE DEEPEST WITH THE TROF...AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLN BY
HPC. WITH THAT SAID...IT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN. THE HPC GUIDANCE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH HAS
THE 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS DAYS 5-7. SO POPS SHUD
TREND LOWER AND TEMPS HIGHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...MVFR SHUD LIFT QUICKLY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...LEAVING
VFR AND INCREASING TSRA CHANCE. EXPECT TSRA TO BE IN THE AREA MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWING TAF RULES...HAVE VFR TEMPO
TS BEGINNING AT 19Z. WILL AMD FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS AS CELLS APPROACH
THE AIRFIELD. CONVECTION COULD LINGER ALL NIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE AREA...SO
PROB30 IN PLACE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS TOWARD
MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE NORMAL TIME PERIOD. VFR WITH
PROB30 TSRA BY LATE MORNING WED. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH CURRENT SLY WINDS THRU
EVENING...THEN TURN TO THE MDL CONSENSUS OF NELY OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORN.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TRENDS TO KCLT...XCPT CONVECTION ON THE DOORSTEP
AT KAVL. HAVE STARTED WITH TEMPO TS AND RESTRICTIONS THERE. REST OF
THE SITES GET THEM AT 20Z. SC SITES AND KAVL THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE CONVECTION...SO INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS
IN THE TEMPO THERE. VCTS OR PROB30 OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION COULD
LINGER THRU THE NITE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY ALL BUT KAND...BUT COULD
OCCUR THERE AS WELL...BY MORNING...WITH MVFR VSBY LIKELY KAVL/KHKY.
EXPECT VFR WITH PRO30 BY LATE MORNING. WINDS SHUD HAVE A SLY
COMPONENT SC SITES INTO EVENING...WITH NLY NC SITES. NELY WIND
OVERNIGHT AND WED MORN.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A
WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. THIS COULD OCCUR AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AREAS OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-111000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
515 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING....HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ010-101815-
RABUN-
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE MOUNTAIN...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLAYTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  PINE MOUNTAIN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3500 8312 3495 8311 3495 8312 3494 8312
      3492 8315 3493 8315 3491 8316 3492 8317
      3490 8319 3485 8327 3500 8333

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

NCZ037-101845-
DAVIE-
158 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT DAVIE COUNTY THROUGH 245 PM
EDT...

AT 155 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF FARMINGTON...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FARMINGTON...
  MOCKSVILLE...
  BERMUDA RUN...
  ADVANCE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3588 8041 3585 8038 3583 8043 3583 8048
      3595 8071 3603 8070 3606 8068 3605 8049
      3607 8047 3606 8045 3601 8041 3599 8041
      3596 8037 3589 8036

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ017-101830-
HABERSHAM-
207 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 202 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOSSY CREEK...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BALDWIN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3458 8364 3461 8341 3457 8341
      3449 8345 3448 8346 3449 8354 3445 8359
      3443 8361 3443 8362 3451 8367

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

SCZ002-003-101845-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
221 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PICKENS AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKY BOTTOM...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
PICKENS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3509 8278 3507 8278 3507 8276 3510 8272
      3510 8270 3512 8268 3512 8266 3500 8262
      3497 8283 3505 8287

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

GAZ010-101915-
RABUN-
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RABUN COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 223 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE MOUNTAIN...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT
CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
ALSO RISE. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3500 8311 3499 8310 3497 8312 3493 8312
      3494 8313 3492 8314 3493 8315 3492 8316
      3490 8320 3491 8324 3500 8326

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

SCZ006-012-101915-
GREATER GREENVILLE-LAURENS-
252 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF FORK SHOALS...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FOUNTAIN INN...

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN LAURENS AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE
COUNTIES...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3447 8232 3450 8233 3450 8234 3454 8239
      3455 8242 3476 8244 3470 8214 3450 8216
      3444 8227

NED