Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT
IS WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START AS EXPECTED WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE MESOSCALE MDLS SUGGESTED. GREATEST COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE
GA...INTO THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. ONLY
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE...STILL NUMEROUS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF NE GA...THE UPSTATE AND THE NRN MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR
OF NC. ANY OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE VALUES FROM 800 J/KG NORTH TO 1500 J/KG SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR STILL FCST TO INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 25 KTS ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...SO THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION.
STILL...ORGANIZED STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. ALSO...COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE HIGHER DCAPE. HAVE ALREADY INCLUDED SVR TSRA WORDING IN THE FCST
THRU 00Z TO COVER THE POTENTIAL.

STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS
INSTABILITY WANES. SH/TSRA COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WOULD BE SCT AT BEST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...ESP MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. LOWS AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DEVELOPING TUE
AS THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP
EXPECTED AGAIN. HOWEVER...DCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HIGH AS
AIRMASS MOISTENS. STILL...ISOLATED TO SCT SVR STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STRING OF
VERY HOT TEMPS SHUD FINALLY COME TO AN END WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LWR MS VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SE CONUS IN THIS
PATTERN...KEEPING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED FROM SW
TO NE ACRS THE REGION. COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH PWATS IN THE 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL RANGE. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO AGREE SOMEWHAT ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SOME UPR DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LLVL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE TN VLY AS WELL...BACKING
THE FLOW TO S/SELY AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN VERY HIGH POPS...BASICALLY
SHOTGUN LIKELY ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE SHUD STILL BE SOMEWHAT OF
A DIURNAL NATURE TO POPS...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER
IMPULSES...THERE COULD BE DECENT COVERAGE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL PER INSTBY IN FCST SNDGS. IN FACT...FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY MOIST
COLUMN INDICATIVE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC SNDGS AND WEAK
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND LITTLE SPREAD IN GEFS SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
MEDIUM RANGE FCST. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE
EAST COAST...BUT AMPLIFIES...PUSHING A FRONTAL BNDRY BACK NORTH FOR
THIS WEEKEND. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SELY...AND PWATS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL. SO CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IS PROGGED
THRU NEW DAY 7. GIVEN SUCH A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF HIGH POPS...HYDRO
CONCERNS MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. OVERALL...THERE
IS NO PERIOD WHERE UPR FORCING IS ALL THAT STRONG...AND 850MB
MOISTURE FLUX REMAINS MODEST AT BEST...WHILE MOISTURE PLUME/PWAT
ANOMALIES SHIFTS WEST OF THE CWFA (PER THE 12Z GEFS). SO WILL NOT
ADD ANY HYDRO MENTION IN THE HWO ATTM. EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER
AND A WARMING TEMP TREND AS UPR RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION GOING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS LIKELY DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA.
IN LINE WITH THE NEW TAF RULES...HAVE PREVAILING VFR TS IN THE TAF
BEGINNING AT 20Z GIVEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD. EVEN THIS
MAY BE TOO SLOW...BUT WILL AMD AS CELLS APPROACH. NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT CONVECTION
POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING VFR
TS THRU 04Z AND PROB30 THEREAFTER. EXPECT THAT ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO CONVECTIVE CELLS...SO THE FCST IF VFR THROUGHOUT. IF
CONVECTION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR...THEN FOG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET GOING EARLY AGAIN TUE WITH MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HENCE THE
PREVAILING TS BY NOON. N TO NW WIND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
XCPT FOR VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR TS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION COMPARED TO KCLT. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION IS AN EARLIER ONSET AT ALL BUT KAND. IN ADDITION...WINDS
WILL BE MORE WLY FOR THE SC SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN N TO NE
OVERNIGHT AND TUE. FOG MORE LIKELY AT KAVL/KHKY...BUT COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE CONVECTION TAPERS OFF AND SKIES CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN
FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
406 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LAKE WYLIE        35.10N 81.01W
07/09/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON SOUTH POINT AND REESE WILSON
            ROADS.

&&

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW PINEVILLE         35.15N 80.93W
07/09/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ON WEST ARROWOOD ROAD NEAR SOUTH TRYON STREET.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S CHARLOTTE           35.13N 80.83W
07/09/2012                   MECKLENBURG        NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            A TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE ON LAKESIDE DR AND MULTIPLE
            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGH RIDGE ROAD.

&&

JOH

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