Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

529 
WWUS52 KGSP 091848
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
248 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

NCC045-071-SCC091-091915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0375.000000T0000Z-120709T1915Z/
CLEVELAND NC-GASTON NC-YORK SC-
248 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
YORK...SOUTHERN GASTON AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

AT 244 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BESSEMER CITY...OR 8 MILES WEST OF GASTONIA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  GASTONIA.
  LOWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8103 3515 8105 3512 8104 3505 8106
      3506 8132 3515 8138 3516 8137 3517 8138
      3535 8149 3542 8144 3524 8101
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 251DEG 19KT 3528 8129

$$

CSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT
IS WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START AS EXPECTED WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE MESOSCALE MDLS SUGGESTED. GREATEST COVERAGE STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS AND ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NE
GA...INTO THE UPSTATE AND THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NC. ONLY
SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE...STILL NUMEROUS...IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
PORTIONS OF NE GA...THE UPSTATE AND THE NRN MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR
OF NC. ANY OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DCAPE VALUES FROM 800 J/KG NORTH TO 1500 J/KG SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR STILL FCST TO INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 25 KTS ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR...SO THAT AREA HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION.
STILL...ORGANIZED STORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF THERE GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. ALSO...COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
THE HIGHER DCAPE. HAVE ALREADY INCLUDED SVR TSRA WORDING IN THE FCST
THRU 00Z TO COVER THE POTENTIAL.

STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING THEN TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE AS
INSTABILITY WANES. SH/TSRA COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WOULD BE SCT AT BEST.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...ESP MTN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. LOWS AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DEVELOPING TUE
AS THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH NO CAP
EXPECTED AGAIN. HOWEVER...DCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HIGH AS
AIRMASS MOISTENS. STILL...ISOLATED TO SCT SVR STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STRING OF
VERY HOT TEMPS SHUD FINALLY COME TO AN END WITH HIGHS NEAR TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
BROAD...POSITIVELY TILTED UPR TROF EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LWR MS VALLEY AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGE. RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACRS THE SE CONUS IN THIS
PATTERN...KEEPING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED FROM SW
TO NE ACRS THE REGION. COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE WITH PWATS IN THE 1-2 SD ABV NORMAL RANGE. AS FOR
FORCING...THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO AGREE SOMEWHAT ON SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SOME UPR DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZED ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LLVL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE TN VLY AS WELL...BACKING
THE FLOW TO S/SELY AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE RESULTS IN VERY HIGH POPS...BASICALLY
SHOTGUN LIKELY ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE SHUD STILL BE SOMEWHAT OF
A DIURNAL NATURE TO POPS...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF UPPER
IMPULSES...THERE COULD BE DECENT COVERAGE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL PER INSTBY IN FCST SNDGS. IN FACT...FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY MOIST
COLUMN INDICATIVE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SEVERE THREAT WILL
PROBABLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC SNDGS AND WEAK
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT MONDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH FORM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY....WITH WEAK RIDGING OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN FROM NC ACROSS THE GULF
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DISSIPATES ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION GOING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT. THIS LIKELY DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA.
IN LINE WITH THE NEW TAF RULES...HAVE PREVAILING VFR TS IN THE TAF
BEGINNING AT 20Z GIVEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD. EVEN THIS
MAY BE TOO SLOW...BUT WILL AMD AS CELLS APPROACH. NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH SCT CONVECTION
POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE WITH PREVAILING VFR
TS THRU 04Z AND PROB30 THEREAFTER. EXPECT THAT ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO CONVECTIVE CELLS...SO THE FCST IF VFR THROUGHOUT. IF
CONVECTION TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR...THEN FOG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GET GOING EARLY AGAIN TUE WITH MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA...HENCE THE
PREVAILING TS BY NOON. N TO NW WIND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
XCPT FOR VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR TS.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION COMPARED TO KCLT. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION IS AN EARLIER ONSET AT ALL BUT KAND. IN ADDITION...WINDS
WILL BE MORE WLY FOR THE SC SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN N TO NE
OVERNIGHT AND TUE. FOG MORE LIKELY AT KAVL/KHKY...BUT COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE CONVECTION TAPERS OFF AND SKIES CLEAR.

OUTLOOK...SHRA/TSRA AREA EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AROUND STORMS. AREAS OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS AND WHERE RAIN
FALLS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
527 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY...AND WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS IN NORTH CAROLINA THAN IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR GEORGIA.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
926 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE PINE MOUNTAIN      34.92N 83.17W
07/08/2012                   OCONEE             SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG SC28 NEAR THE GA STATE LINE.

&&

TW