Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
H5 SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTN AND MOVE E OF CWA THIS EVE. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MRNG HAVE KEPT
THE NW HALF OF THE CWA MORE STABLE BUT AS BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUDS AND THE FRONT APPROACHES EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS
TO INCREASE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME
STORMS TO BECOME SVR...ESP OVER THE SE CWA WHICH HAS HAD BETTER
HEATING WITH A WEAK LEADING SHORTWAVE. CURRENT STORMS OVER THAT AREA
WILL PUSH E OF THE CWA EARLY BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
AS THE FRONT COMES THRU LATER. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS E AND WITH COOLING THIS EVE. EXPECT PCLDY TO MCLR
SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS COOLING TO BELOW AVG. BROAD UPPER TROF
REMAINS OVER THE REGION SAT WHILE H85 RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES BEGIN
TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECTING PCLDY SKIES AND
BELOW AVG HIGHS SAT AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 210 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF AXIS CONTINUES TO SWING EAST OF
THE AREA SAT NIGHT ENABLING H5 HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THE 12Z NAM IS ONLY AVAILABLE TO 60 HRS...SO A NON/HYDROSTATIC MODEL
COMPARISON IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. HOWEVER...THE 12Z
GFS DOES AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NAM UNTIL 00Z MON. THE GFS DOES
BECOME A SIGFNT OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WITH A S/W
RACING SE TOWARD THE CWFA DURING THE DAY MON. THE CMC/ECMWF HAVE A
MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SOLN...SO THE GFS DYNO/MASS FIELDS WILL BE
TEMPERED DOWN A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE.

STILL SEE A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR ISOL -SHRA ACROSS THE NC MTNS
BEGINNING SUN MORNING AS THE H8 FLOW IS MAINTAINED W/LY AND A GOM
MOISTURE FLUX IS TAPPED. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP A LEE SIDE TROF
WHICH WILL ENABLE TEMPS TO REBOUND TO A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A LLVL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NRN UPSTATE AND NE GE SUN NIGHT AND
THIS WILL HELP GENERATE ISOL SHRA ACROSS WRN AND SRN ZONES EARLY MON
WHILE A WARM FRONT ADVANCES INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND MAX
HEATING. EXPECT A GOOD SFC TD MODIFICATION INTO THE L60S EVEN WITH
THE W/LY FLOW AS SFC CONVERGENCE AND POOLING INCREASES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH GENERATE LOW END SBCAPE FOR LATE
AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS THE SW/RN ZONES. NOTHING TOO STRONG NOR
SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED ATTM. MAX TEMPS FOR MON WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL AS MOST OF THE CWFA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 150 PM EDT FRIDAY...CLOSED LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST THROUGH
START OF THE WEEK.  THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES WESTERN TN INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.  THE OLD ECMWF DOWNPLAYS THIS...BUT GFS IS CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING THIS SYSTEM IN SOME FORM. HPC DRIES US OUT FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS BROAD TROFINESS CONTINUES OVER
THE EAST WITH A CLOSED OR NEARLY CLOSED LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.
GREATER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT AND ANY DIURNAL HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY BUT A BIT BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPO TSRA WITH MVFR CIG/VSBY...UNTIL
THE FRONT GOES THRU EARLY THIS EVE. CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY
BY MID EVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL SWING W THEN
NW WITH FROPA AFTER SUNSET. LOOK FOR PCLDY SKIES WITH N WINDS AT
10KT SAT.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT BUT EARLIER END TO TSTM ACTIVITY WITH
EARLIER FROPA.

OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020430-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
321 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR AT LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADO OR TWO. THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE AND THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AROUND SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ071-SCZ009-011915-
MECKLENBURG-YORK-
233 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YORK AND SOUTHERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TEGA CAY...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCK
HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FORT MILL...
  CAROWINDS...
  PINEVILLE...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...
  EASTLAND MALL...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3503 8077 3503 8080 3500 8084 3505 8089
      3501 8090 3496 8088 3490 8098 3503 8113
      3536 8074 3530 8068 3527 8067 3524 8060
      3520 8056

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

GAZ018-026-SCZ001-004-011930-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-STEPHENS-
256 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
OCONEE AND STEPHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
LONG CREEK TO 4 MILES NORTH OF EASTANOLEE TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
EASTANOLEE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  EASTANOLEE...
  MARTIN...
  MARTIN...
  WALHALLA...
  WHITWORTH...
  SENECA...

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN OCONEE AND STEPHENS
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

TOCCOA...EASTANOLEE...MARTIN...WESTMINSTER...LAKE HARTWELL...
WHITWORTH...LAVONIA...SENECA AND FAIR PLAY...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3448 8340 3458 8336 3478 8331 3477 8289
      3474 8290 3473 8288 3464 8284 3448 8300
      3450 8305 3443 8309

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
258 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ057-072-011945-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
258 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS AND ROWAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HUNTERSVILLE...OR 10 MILES
WEST OF CONCORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ENOCHVILLE...
  KANNAPOLIS...
  LANDIS...
  CHINA GROVE...
  GRANITE QUARRY...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3536 8072 3540 8077 3542 8075 3547 8078
      3550 8079 3551 8074 3558 8075 3576 8050
      3556 8032

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ033-050-012000-
AVERY-MITCHELL-
323 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY AND CENTRAL MITCHELL
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MINNEAPOLIS...OR 7 MILES
WEST OF NEWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  NEWLAND...
  LINVILLE...
  BANNER ELK...

PEOPLE IN AVERY AND CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

NEWLAND...LINVILLE AND BANNER ELK...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8184 3616 8182 3611 8180
      3609 8178 3595 8209 3610 8222 3616 8215
      3611 8212 3611 8208 3613 8205 3613 8204
      3628 8193 3629 8190

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

SCZ002-005-006-010-012015-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
349 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...EASTERN
PICKENS AND NORTHERN ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DACUSVILLE TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  EASLEY...
  ANDERSON...
  POWDERSVILLE...
  TRAVELERS REST...
  DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3445 8286 3450 8291 3462 8286 3462 8284
      3464 8285 3464 8283 3466 8284 3497 8270
      3499 8254 3497 8252 3499 8249 3501 8231
      3451 8239 3441 8284

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

NCZ501>506-012045-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER
BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
409 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
445 PM. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

LAT...LON 3608 8142 3600 8132 3593 8134 3562 8158
      3566 8229 3571 8228 3572 8222 3577 8216
      3591 8193 3598 8187 3596 8180 3607 8173
      3610 8177 3612 8176 3613 8155

HG