Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST PROFILES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORTS LINED UP TO CROSS THE
AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE MORE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WOULD EXPECT THAT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS AND FOG SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST
AREAS.

ON TUE...THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY WITH A CONTINUED LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD THE LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY. WITH THE INSOLATION AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS HIGH
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP. USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS
ON TUE WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 TROF WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SFC...A LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSES
AND LLVL WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE MTNS. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MILD
TEMPS BETWEEN H8 TO H6 WITH VERY SHALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY FAVOR VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000
J/KG...WITH WEAK LLVL CIN VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LLVL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHRA/TSRA DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...I WILL INDICATE
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL TROF MAY REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF TO A WEAK LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT AND LOW MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LLVL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNTS
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA AND LATE AFTERNOON SCHC EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MID LEVEL TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTERN TROF WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
IN PLACE...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RANGING AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. BASED OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...I WILL ADVERTISE LATE AFTERNOON SCHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS...DRY EAST. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...RADAR INDICATES SCT SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD
AND DOWNSTREAM...SO WILL START THE FORECAST OFF WITH PREDOMINATE
-SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRFIELD SHOULD ENCOUNTER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN
THE 20Z-23Z TIMEFRAME SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR THAT WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z...SO
SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWNARD LOWERING CIGS TO IFR BY EARLY TUE...THEN LIFTING BY
LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HENCE...WILL GIVE
ALL AIRFIELDS A TEMPO FOR TSRA IN THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH
GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD
WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS BY EARLY TUE...IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING

OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY WED...BEFORE SOME
DRYING WED AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR THEN. THERE WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK. MRNG FOG
PSBL...MAINLY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
342 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS KEPT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH.
THEREFORE...STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ050-142115-
MITCHELL-
413 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEDGER...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRUCE
PINE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE YANCEY
COUNTY LINE EAST OF BURNSVILLE SINCE 3 PM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3606 8207 3601 8204 3598 8206 3591 8201
      3591 8215 3593 8216 3593 8218 3595 8220
      3596 8219 3600 8220

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ052-059-142115-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-
446 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN
JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BALSAM...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SYLVA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BALSAM...
  MAGGIE VALLEY...
  WAYNESVILLE...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3559 8299 3541 8297 3539 8320 3548 8322

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ082-142200-
UNION-
509 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 5 MILES NORTH OF
LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANCASTER COUNTY LINE SOUTH OF WAXHAW. AS THIS
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN IS LIKELY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3481 8056 3481 8079 3482 8080 3485 8080
      3490 8080 3491 8078 3490 8054

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

GAZ010-142145-
RABUN-
513 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIAWASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BURTON...
  CLAYTON...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BOATERS ON LAKE BURTON SHOULD SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3487 8366 3491 8363 3496 8332 3475 8332
      3474 8333 3478 8356 3483 8360 3482 8366
      3485 8367

LANE