Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2012

Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 14, 201221 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at May 14, 2012, 5:23 PM EDT for 21 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 14, 2012, 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2012, 3:43 AM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Flood severity
None
All 21 counties

Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 26 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2012-05-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 100 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
26 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-122 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
713 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
100 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

344 
WGUS62 KGSP 142123
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING...

.WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND
ALREADY SATURATED BY EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH STREAM LEVELS
ALREADY RUNNING QUITE HIGH...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-150530-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0001.120514T2123Z-120515T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...HENDERSONVILLE...
SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
523 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN 
  PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...CABARRUS...CLEVELAND...DAVIE... 
  GASTON...IREDELL...LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION NC. 
  IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE 
  MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CATAWBA...EASTERN 
  MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL... 
  GREATER RUTHERFORD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS... 
  MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS AND YANCEY. 

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. 

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
  PER HOUR ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL.
  STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH AND FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP
  VERY RAPIDLY.

* THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
  WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING
  DEVELOPING. LOW SPOTS IN AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AS THE
  HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
  ROADS IN AFFECTED AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE
THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
3 follow-up statements
540 
WGUS62 KGSP 150006
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

.WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. SERIOUS FLOODING
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...AND ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL TODAY...SO FLASH FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS.

NCZ033-049-050-053-150115-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
806 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY...AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL RATES
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FLOODING FROM DEVELOPING.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-150815-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...
CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
806 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PIEDMONT NORTH 
  CAROLINA...CABARRUS...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...GASTON...IREDELL... 
  LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION NC. IN WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...BURKE MOUNTAINS...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS... 
  CATAWBA...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE... 
  GREATER CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...POLK MOUNTAINS AND RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS. 

* UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL
  TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WITH
  SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING IN SOME PLACES. THESE HEAVY
  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
  THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT RATES UP
  TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED...FALLING ON GROUND ALREADY
  SATURATED BY EARLIER RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP VERY
  QUICKLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THIS
  EVENING.

* THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
  WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING
  DEVELOPING. LOW SPOTS IN AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AS THE
  HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
  ROADS IN AFFECTED AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE
THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
104 
WGUS62 KGSP 150252
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1052 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND
MAY LINGER IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW FLOODING EARLIER THIS EVENING...

.WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WILL
SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SERIOUS FLOODING
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...AND HIGH WATER
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN THE CHARLOTTE AREA. 

NCZ065-501-503-505>510-150400-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...LAKE LURE...
RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS
1052 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR HENDERSON COUNTY AND
THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-151000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON
1052 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PIEDMONT NORTH 
  CAROLINA...CABARRUS...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...GASTON...IREDELL... 
  LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION NC. IN WESTERN NORTH 
  CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...CATAWBA...GREATER BURKE AND GREATER 
  CALDWELL. 

* UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
  ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN
  ADDITION...HIGH WATER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS FOOTHILL AND
  PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING.
  RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
  THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOODING COULD RAPIDLY
  DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

* THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WATER
  LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING
  DEVELOPS. LOW SPOTS IN AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AS THE
  HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
  ROADS IN AFFECTED AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE
THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
596 
WGUS62 KGSP 150743
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-150845-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON
343 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OR ENDED
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING...AND NO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES CONCERNING POTENTIAL FLOODING LATER TODAY.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 14, 2:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 2:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 230 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY
MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST PROFILES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORTS LINED UP TO CROSS THE
AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE MORE
IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WOULD EXPECT THAT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDINESS AND FOG SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST
AREAS.

ON TUE...THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY WITH A CONTINUED LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD THE LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY. WITH THE INSOLATION AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK
SHORT WAVE...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS HIGH
DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP. USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS
ON TUE WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 TROF WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SFC...A LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSES
AND LLVL WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE MTNS. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MILD
TEMPS BETWEEN H8 TO H6 WITH VERY SHALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY FAVOR VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000
J/KG...WITH WEAK LLVL CIN VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LLVL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER A
FEW SHRA/TSRA DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...I WILL INDICATE
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST.

ON THURSDAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORT
RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL TROF MAY REMAIN OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF TO A WEAK LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT AND LOW MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LLVL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNTS
OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA AND LATE AFTERNOON SCHC EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY OBSERVED VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF NOON MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MID LEVEL TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTERN TROF WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
IN PLACE...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RANGING AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. BASED OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...I WILL ADVERTISE LATE AFTERNOON SCHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
ACROSS THE MTNS...DRY EAST. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE MTNS
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...RADAR INDICATES SCT SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD
AND DOWNSTREAM...SO WILL START THE FORECAST OFF WITH PREDOMINATE
-SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRFIELD SHOULD ENCOUNTER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN
THE 20Z-23Z TIMEFRAME SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR THAT WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z...SO
SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWNARD LOWERING CIGS TO IFR BY EARLY TUE...THEN LIFTING BY
LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HENCE...WILL GIVE
ALL AIRFIELDS A TEMPO FOR TSRA IN THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH
GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z.
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD
WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS BY EARLY TUE...IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING

OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY WED...BEFORE SOME
DRYING WED AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR THEN. THERE WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK. MRNG FOG
PSBL...MAINLY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...LG
Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 5:19 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-152130-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
519 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>014-
019-152130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
519 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS KEPT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH.
THEREFORE...STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 14, 4:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ050-142115-
MITCHELL-
413 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEDGER...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRUCE
PINE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE YANCEY
COUNTY LINE EAST OF BURNSVILLE SINCE 3 PM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3606 8207 3601 8204 3598 8206 3591 8201
      3591 8215 3593 8216 3593 8218 3595 8220
      3596 8219 3600 8220

LANE
Special weather statement, May 14, 4:46 PM EDT, 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ052-059-142115-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-
446 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN
JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BALSAM...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SYLVA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BALSAM...
  MAGGIE VALLEY...
  WAYNESVILLE...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3559 8299 3541 8297 3539 8320 3548 8322

LANE
Special weather statement, May 14, 5:09 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NCZ082-142200-
UNION-
509 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 5 MILES NORTH OF
LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANCASTER COUNTY LINE SOUTH OF WAXHAW. AS THIS
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN IS LIKELY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3481 8056 3481 8079 3482 8080 3485 8080
      3490 8080 3491 8078 3490 8054

LANE
Special weather statement, May 14, 5:13 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

GAZ010-142145-
RABUN-
513 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIAWASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE BURTON...
  CLAYTON...

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BOATERS ON LAKE BURTON SHOULD SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3487 8366 3491 8363 3496 8332 3475 8332
      3474 8333 3478 8356 3483 8360 3482 8366
      3485 8367

LANE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 14, 5:29 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPHenderson, Polk, Rutherford3 hr
May 14, 5:44 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPHenderson6 hr
May 14, 8:49 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln2 hr
May 14, 4:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMitchell62 min
May 14, 4:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHaywood29 min
May 14, 4:52 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCleveland3 hr
May 14, 5:09 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion51 min
May 14, 5:24 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPIredell96 min
May 14, 5:39 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, McDowell81 min
May 14, 5:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMcDowell29 min
May 14, 5:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPPolk34 min
May 14, 6:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPAlexander, Caldwell, Iredell3 hr
May 14, 6:54 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPRutherford59 min
May 14, 7:02 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPBurke, Cleveland, Rutherford118 min
May 14, 7:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland38 min
May 14, 7:27 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPCatawba, Iredell93 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2012Every flash flood watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.