Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2012
Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at May 14, 2012, 5:23 PM EDT for 21 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 10 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2012, 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2012, 3:43 AM EDT
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Flood severity
- None
All 21 counties
Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 713 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 100 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
344 WGUS62 KGSP 142123 FFAGSP URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 523 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING... .WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH STREAM LEVELS ALREADY RUNNING QUITE HIGH...FLASH FLOODING COULD RESULT. NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-150530- /O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0001.120514T2123Z-120515T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS- GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE... SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...HENDERSONVILLE... SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE... LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS 523 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...CABARRUS...CLEVELAND...DAVIE... GASTON...IREDELL...LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION NC. IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...CATAWBA...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL... GREATER RUTHERFORD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS... MITCHELL...POLK MOUNTAINS...RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS AND YANCEY. * THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. * THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AT THE RATE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. STREAMS ARE RUNNING VERY HIGH AND FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY. * THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING DEVELOPING. LOW SPOTS IN AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AS THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME ROADS IN AFFECTED AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS. && $$ GERAPETRITIS
3 follow-up statements
540 WGUS62 KGSP 150006 FFAGSP FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 806 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... .WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CROSS THE PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. SERIOUS FLOODING HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS...AND ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL TODAY...SO FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS. NCZ033-049-050-053-150115- /O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE 806 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR AVERY...MITCHELL...YANCEY...AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FLOODING FROM DEVELOPING. $$ NCZ035>037-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-150815- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN- GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD- POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA... CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION... LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS 806 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...CABARRUS...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...GASTON...IREDELL... LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION NC. IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...BURKE MOUNTAINS...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS... CATAWBA...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...GREATER BURKE... GREATER CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...POLK MOUNTAINS AND RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS. * UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. * THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED 4 TO 6 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...WITH SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPING IN SOME PLACES. THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED...FALLING ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY EARLIER RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. * THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL WANT TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING DEVELOPING. LOW SPOTS IN AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AS THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME ROADS IN AFFECTED AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS. && $$ GERAPETRITIS
104 WGUS62 KGSP 150252 FFAGSP FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1052 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA AND MAY LINGER IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW FLOODING EARLIER THIS EVENING... .WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SERIOUS FLOODING DEVELOPED ACROSS SOME FOOTHILL LOCATIONS...AND HIGH WATER CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN THE CHARLOTTE AREA. NCZ065-501-503-505>510-150400- /O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD- POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...LAKE LURE... RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS 1052 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR HENDERSON COUNTY AND THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. $$ NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-151000- /O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON 1052 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...CABARRUS...CLEVELAND...DAVIE...GASTON...IREDELL... LINCOLN...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN AND UNION NC. IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...ALEXANDER...CATAWBA...GREATER BURKE AND GREATER CALDWELL. * UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. * A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH WATER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS. FLASH FLOODING COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. * THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING DEVELOPS. LOW SPOTS IN AREA ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FLOOD AS THE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SOME ROADS IN AFFECTED AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS. && $$ GERAPETRITIS
596 WGUS62 KGSP 150743 FFAGSP FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 343 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-150845- /O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-120515T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...LENOIR...MORGANTON 343 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OR ENDED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WATER LEVELS ARE RECEDING...AND NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING POTENTIAL FLOODING LATER TODAY. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 14, 2:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 14, 2:33 PM EDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 233 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AT 230 PM...CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE TO NUMEROUS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOIST PROFILES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORTS LINED UP TO CROSS THE AREA. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO THERE WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WOULD EXPECT THAT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MOST AREAS. ON TUE...THE DAY WILL BEGIN CLOUDY WITH A CONTINUED LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH A LITTLE MORE OF A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD THE LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. WITH THE INSOLATION AND THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS UP. USED A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS ON TUE WHICH CALLS FOR TEMPS TO TOP OUT NEAR CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF A H5 TROF WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROF WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSES AND LLVL WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MILD TEMPS BETWEEN H8 TO H6 WITH VERY SHALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY FAVOR VALUES BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG...WITH WEAK LLVL CIN VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROF AND RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA/TSRA DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. USING A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO L80S EAST. ON THURSDAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NC ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL TROF MAY REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF TO A WEAK LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT AND LOW MID LEVEL HEIGHTS I EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LLVL CONVERGENCE AND AMOUNTS OF CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN FOR SHRA/TSRA AND LATE AFTERNOON SCHC EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY VERY CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY OBSERVED VALUES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF NOON MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MID LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE WESTERN TROF WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GEORGIA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RANGING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOT FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. BASED OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS...I WILL ADVERTISE LATE AFTERNOON SCHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MTNS...DRY EAST. A COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE MTNS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT....POSSIBLY RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AT KCLT...RADAR INDICATES SCT SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AND DOWNSTREAM...SO WILL START THE FORECAST OFF WITH PREDOMINATE -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE AIRFIELD SHOULD ENCOUNTER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE 20Z-23Z TIMEFRAME SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO FOR THAT WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z...SO SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWNARD LOWERING CIGS TO IFR BY EARLY TUE...THEN LIFTING BY LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HENCE...WILL GIVE ALL AIRFIELDS A TEMPO FOR TSRA IN THE 20Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WANE AFTER 00Z. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD WIDESPREAD IFR RESTRICTIONS BY EARLY TUE...IMPROVING BY LATE MORNING OUTLOOK...EXPECT RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS INTO TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY WED...BEFORE SOME DRYING WED AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR THEN. THERE WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU LATE WEEK. MRNG FOG PSBL...MAINLY MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES/RIVERS. AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...WINESETT NEAR TERM...LG SHORT TERM...NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...LG
Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 5:19 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 519 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 NCZ033-035>037-049-050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-152130- AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- 519 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>014- 019-152130- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD- GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 519 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS KEPT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH. THEREFORE...STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REGENERATE AND MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS OR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 14, 4:13 PM EDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
NCZ050-142115-
MITCHELL-
413 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM EDT...
AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEDGER...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRUCE
PINE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE YANCEY
COUNTY LINE EAST OF BURNSVILLE SINCE 3 PM.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
LAT...LON 3606 8207 3601 8204 3598 8206 3591 8201
3591 8215 3593 8216 3593 8218 3595 8220
3596 8219 3600 8220
LANESpecial weather statement, May 14, 4:46 PM EDT, 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 446 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 NCZ052-059-142115- HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON- 446 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HAYWOOD AND NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT... AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF BALSAM...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SYLVA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BALSAM... MAGGIE VALLEY... WAYNESVILLE... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. LAT...LON 3559 8299 3541 8297 3539 8320 3548 8322 LANE
Special weather statement, May 14, 5:09 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
509 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
NCZ082-142200-
UNION-
509 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN UNION
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT...
AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 5 MILES NORTH OF
LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LANCASTER COUNTY LINE SOUTH OF WAXHAW. AS THIS
NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF
RAIN IS LIKELY.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
LAT...LON 3481 8056 3481 8079 3482 8080 3485 8080
3490 8080 3491 8078 3490 8054
LANESpecial weather statement, May 14, 5:13 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
GAZ010-142145-
RABUN-
513 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RABUN COUNTY THROUGH 545
PM EDT...
AT 506 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIAWASSEE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
LAKE BURTON...
CLAYTON...
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
BOATERS ON LAKE BURTON SHOULD SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE.
HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.
LAT...LON 3487 8366 3491 8363 3496 8332 3475 8332
3474 8333 3478 8356 3483 8360 3482 8366
3485 8367
LANEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 5:29 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Henderson, Polk, Rutherford | 3 hr |
| May 14, 5:44 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Henderson | 6 hr |
| May 14, 8:49 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Burke, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln | 2 hr |
| May 14, 4:13 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Mitchell | 62 min |
| May 14, 4:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Haywood | 29 min |
| May 14, 4:52 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Cleveland | 3 hr |
| May 14, 5:09 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 51 min |
| May 14, 5:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Iredell | 96 min |
| May 14, 5:39 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Burke, McDowell | 81 min |
| May 14, 5:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | McDowell | 29 min |
| May 14, 5:56 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Polk | 34 min |
| May 14, 6:31 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | GSP | Alexander, Caldwell, Iredell | 3 hr |
| May 14, 6:54 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Rutherford | 59 min |
| May 14, 7:02 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Burke, Cleveland, Rutherford | 118 min |
| May 14, 7:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cleveland | 38 min |
| May 14, 7:27 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Catawba, Iredell | 93 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2012Every flash flood watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.