Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 4 PM...I UPDATED THE FORECAST AT 315 PM TO ADD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219. I ALSO RAISED POPS IN THE WATCH AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING AND FUTURE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLIER START THIS AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ATMOS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH NO CIN. DCAPE IS MODERATE BUT FREEZING LEVEL IS NOT VERY LOW.
STILL THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND
WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AS STORMS ARE VERY REFLECTIVE AND
GROWING VERY TALL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STRONGEST NORTH OF I-85...SO
EXPECT ANY ORGANIZATION THERE. SOUTH OF I-85...EVEN THO INSTABILITY
IS HIGH...LFC LEVELS ARE ABOVE 5 KFT. EXPECT THIS TO KEEP A LID ON
CONVECTION UNLESS SOME LIFTING MECHANISM CAN PUSH INTO THE AREA...
LIKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. MAY HAVE
TO SPREAD ISOLATED POP A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-85 AND EXPAND THE SCT
COVERAGE NORTH OF THERE. CONVECTION SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT
COULD LINGER OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE THE SHEAR IS BEST. LOWS SHUD BE
10 TO 15 ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WED BRINGING A WARMER AND
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. ATMOS WILL REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS NC. EXPECT BEST INSTABILITY TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE THERE
AS WELL...HAVE LIMITED POP TO THOSE AREAS WITH SCT POP OVER THE NRN
BLUE RIDGE AND THE MTNS BETWEEN THE FRENCH BROAD AND PIGEON RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE WITH CONTINUED SLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON THURSDAY. STRONG INSOLATION...DEEP
RIDGING...AND LIMITED MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND SUPPRESSED
BL. MOS GUIDANCE BLEND SUPPORTS MORNING TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L50S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO L60S EAST. THE MILD START COMBINED WITH STEADY
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PLACE RECORD HIGH EAST OF THE MTNS IN
RANGE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK H8 INVERSION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SIGNIFICANT CIN EAST
AND LESS THAN 25 J/KG ACROSS THE MTNS. RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER
A COUPLE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LESS OF AN LLVL
INVERSION...THEREFORE...I WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER
THURSDAY/S VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN CHALLENGE RECORDS
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE AXIS
LIKELY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW VERY MILD
LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POSSIBLY REACHING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. STEERING FLOW AND BROAD INSTABILITY
FIELD MAY RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS...I WILL KEEP A DIURNAL MENTION OF CHC POPS.
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE. I WILL HEAVILY FAVOR THE HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT CHALLENGING ANY RECORDS. I WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BKN AROUND 050
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE SITE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION AND CIGS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE
EVENING. MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY CIG COULD DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BUT
CHC TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. SCT CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WED. SSW WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING WED.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS TO START AT KAVL. KHKY HAS THE NEXT BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION SO HAVE VCTS THERE AT 20Z. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC SITES...BUT SINCE IT IS ONGOING OVER THE MTNS
WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE AS WELL. CONVECTION SHUD END BY EARLY
EVENING WITH ANY BKN CU DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBY
LIKELY AT KAVL/KHKY/KAND WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAND
AROUND DAYBREAK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH SCT
CU CONTINUING TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. S TO SWLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT RETURN WITH MIXING WED.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF FOG AND
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. APART FROM
THAT...MOST OF THE TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN 3 DEGREES F...

KGSP
MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  90F IN 1901...FORECAST 89F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1934...FORECAST 90F

KCLT
MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  92F IN 1959...FORECAST 91F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1955...FORECAST 90F

KAVL
MAY 2ND  88F IN 1935...FORECAST 86F
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965...FORECAST 86F

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...NED/RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...RWH/NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-021930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEVERAL STORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-501>506-021930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     HAIL             4 SE MORGANTON          35.70N 81.66W
05/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             5 NNE CASAR             35.58N 81.59W
05/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ064-012030-
TRANSYLVANIA-
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BALSAM GROVE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3521 8296 3523 8294 3524 8293 3529 8292
      3530 8276 3514 8277 3520 8297

LANE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

GAZ010-017-012045-
HABERSHAM-RABUN-
415 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HABERSHAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN RABUN COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF BATESVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE BURTON...
  NACOOHE LAKE...
  LAKE RABUN...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3489 8345 3473 8341 3474 8362 3482 8367
      3484 8366

LANE