Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

472 
WWUS52 KGSP 012212
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
612 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCC023-111-012222-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-120501T2245Z/
MCDOWELL NC-BURKE NC-
612 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND
NORTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM IN THE LAKE JAMES AREA.

LAT...LON 3595 8178 3594 8177 3593 8178 3593 8176
      3587 8171 3576 8166 3565 8213 3574 8219
      3596 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 240DEG 20KT 3578 8192

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 5 PM...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONCENTRATE POPS A LITTLE MORE
ALONG THE ERN ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STORMS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE EARLIER. APPEARS THAT WEAK LOW LEVEL INHIBITION IS
KEEPING STORMS FROM GOING DESPITE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AOB THE
LFC. THIS WAS THE TREND YDAY AS WELL. THE WORKSTATION WRF-ARW
MAINTAINS SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER OVER THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS THROUGH SUNSET. WE/LL SEE IF THAT PANS OUT.

AT 4 PM...I UPDATED THE FORECAST AT 315 PM TO ADD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219. I ALSO RAISED POPS IN THE WATCH AREA TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING AND FUTURE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLIER START THIS AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ATMOS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH NO CIN. DCAPE IS MODERATE BUT FREEZING LEVEL IS NOT VERY LOW.
STILL THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND
WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AS STORMS ARE VERY REFLECTIVE AND
GROWING VERY TALL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STRONGEST NORTH OF I-85...SO
EXPECT ANY ORGANIZATION THERE. SOUTH OF I-85...EVEN THO INSTABILITY
IS HIGH...LFC LEVELS ARE ABOVE 5 KFT. EXPECT THIS TO KEEP A LID ON
CONVECTION UNLESS SOME LIFTING MECHANISM CAN PUSH INTO THE AREA...
LIKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. MAY HAVE
TO SPREAD ISOLATED POP A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-85 AND EXPAND THE SCT
COVERAGE NORTH OF THERE. CONVECTION SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT
COULD LINGER OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE THE SHEAR IS BEST. LOWS SHUD BE
10 TO 15 ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WED BRINGING A WARMER AND
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. ATMOS WILL REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS NC. EXPECT BEST INSTABILITY TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE THERE
AS WELL...HAVE LIMITED POP TO THOSE AREAS WITH SCT POP OVER THE NRN
BLUE RIDGE AND THE MTNS BETWEEN THE FRENCH BROAD AND PIGEON RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE WITH CONTINUED SLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON THURSDAY. STRONG INSOLATION...DEEP
RIDGING...AND LIMITED MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND SUPPRESSED
BL. MOS GUIDANCE BLEND SUPPORTS MORNING TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L50S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO L60S EAST. THE MILD START COMBINED WITH STEADY
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PLACE RECORD HIGH EAST OF THE MTNS IN
RANGE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK H8 INVERSION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SIGNIFICANT CIN EAST
AND LESS THAN 25 J/KG ACROSS THE MTNS. RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER
A COUPLE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LESS OF AN LLVL
INVERSION...THEREFORE...I WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER
THURSDAY/S VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN CHALLENGE RECORDS
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE AXIS
LIKELY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW VERY MILD
LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POSSIBLY REACHING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. STEERING FLOW AND BROAD INSTABILITY
FIELD MAY RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS...I WILL KEEP A DIURNAL MENTION OF CHC POPS.
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE. I WILL HEAVILY FAVOR THE HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT CHALLENGING ANY RECORDS. I WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BKN AROUND 050
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE SITE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION AND CIGS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE
EVENING. MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY CIG COULD DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BUT
CHC TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. SCT CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WED. SSW WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING WED.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS TO START AT KAVL. KHKY HAS THE NEXT BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION SO HAVE VCTS THERE AT 20Z. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC SITES...BUT SINCE IT IS ONGOING OVER THE MTNS
WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE AS WELL. CONVECTION SHUD END BY EARLY
EVENING WITH ANY BKN CU DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBY
LIKELY AT KAVL/KHKY/KAND WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAND
AROUND DAYBREAK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH SCT
CU CONTINUING TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. S TO SWLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT RETURN WITH MIXING WED.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF FOG AND
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. APART FROM
THAT...MOST OF THE TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN 3 DEGREES F...

KGSP
MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  90F IN 1901...FORECAST 89F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1934...FORECAST 90F

KCLT
MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  92F IN 1959...FORECAST 91F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1955...FORECAST 90F

KAVL
MAY 2ND  88F IN 1935...FORECAST 86F
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965...FORECAST 86F

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-021930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SEVERAL STORMS MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-501>506-021930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ503>505-012130-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
501 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ASHFORD...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ASHFORD...

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3577 8174 3580 8204 3586 8204 3588 8203
      3588 8201 3587 8200 3591 8198 3594 8179

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
518 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             RUTHERFORDTON           35.36N 81.96W
05/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         NC   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
534 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ501>503-012200-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
534 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CALDWELL AND NORTHERN
BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF TABLE ROCK...OR 12 MILES
NORTH OF MORGANTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLLETTSVILLE...
  LENOIR...
  PATTERSON...

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3608 8158 3592 8146 3587 8169 3589 8174
      3585 8180 3585 8181 3593 8185

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ053-065-507-012200-
BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
536 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM
EDT...

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SKYLAND...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN
ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FAIRVIEW...

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3560 8229 3559 8229 3556 8224 3555 8223
      3541 8219 3542 8259 3550 8261 3562 8226

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             2 SE MORGANTON          35.72N 81.67W
05/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT EXIT 105 ON I-40.

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ505-506-012215-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
546 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY THROUGH
615 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  LAKE JAMES...

DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3575 8191 3571 8187 3570 8187 3566 8214
      3571 8219 3585 8205

LANE