Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

725 
WWUS52 KGSP 011900
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCC175-SCC045-077-011945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-120501T1945Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-GREENVILLE SC-PICKENS SC-
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE AND CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ROSMAN...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  ROCKY BOTTOM.
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR AND CAESARS HEAD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 8286 3524 8261 3515 8258 3515 8255
      3498 8254 3499 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 265DEG 9KT 3511 8282

$$

07

891 
WWUS52 KGSP 011921
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCC175-011931-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-120501T1945Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3504 8276 3507 8276 3510 8272 3510 8270
      3512 8268 3512 8266 3513 8265 3512 8263
      3514 8261 3515 8255 3498 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 271DEG 14KT 3510 8267

$$

SCC045-077-011945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-120501T1945Z/
GREENVILLE SC-PICKENS SC-
321 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
PICKENS AND NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CAESARS HEAD.
  JONES GAP STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 8276 3507 8276 3510 8272 3510 8270
      3512 8268 3512 8266 3513 8265 3512 8263
      3514 8261 3515 8255 3498 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 271DEG 14KT 3510 8267

$$
LANE

853 
WWUS52 KGSP 011931
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

SCC045-077-011941-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0151.000000T0000Z-120501T1945Z/
GREENVILLE SC-PICKENS SC-
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS AND
NORTHWESTERN GREENVILLE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3504 8276 3507 8276 3510 8272 3510 8270
      3512 8268 3512 8266 3513 8265 3512 8263
      3514 8261 3515 8255 3498 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 271DEG 14KT 3510 8262

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLIER START THIS AFTERNOON AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. ATMOS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH NO CIN. DCAPE IS MODERATE BUT FREEZING LEVEL IS NOT VERY LOW.
STILL THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND
WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AS STORMS ARE VERY REFLECTIVE AND
GROWING VERY TALL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS STRONGEST NORTH OF I-85...SO
EXPECT ANY ORGANIZATION THERE. SOUTH OF I-85...EVEN THO INSTABILITY
IS HIGH...LFC LEVELS ARE ABOVE 5 KFT. EXPECT THIS TO KEEP A LID ON
CONVECTION UNLESS SOME LIFTING MECHANISM CAN PUSH INTO THE AREA...
LIKE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FORM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. MAY HAVE
TO SPREAD ISOLATED POP A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-85 AND EXPAND THE SCT
COVERAGE NORTH OF THERE. CONVECTION SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BUT
COULD LINGER OVER THE NRN TIER WHERE THE SHEAR IS BEST. LOWS SHUD BE
10 TO 15 ABOVE NORMAL.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA WED BRINGING A WARMER AND
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. ATMOS WILL REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS NC. EXPECT BEST INSTABILITY TO BE
LIMITED TO THE MTNS AND I-40 CORRIDOR. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE THERE
AS WELL...HAVE LIMITED POP TO THOSE AREAS WITH SCT POP OVER THE NRN
BLUE RIDGE AND THE MTNS BETWEEN THE FRENCH BROAD AND PIGEON RIVER
VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE WITH CONTINUED SLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL DOMINATE THE CWA ON THURSDAY. STRONG INSOLATION...DEEP
RIDGING...AND LIMITED MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND SUPPRESSED
BL. MOS GUIDANCE BLEND SUPPORTS MORNING TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L50S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO L60S EAST. THE MILD START COMBINED WITH STEADY
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PLACE RECORD HIGH EAST OF THE MTNS IN
RANGE...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK H8 INVERSION ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SIGNIFICANT CIN EAST
AND LESS THAN 25 J/KG ACROSS THE MTNS. RIDGETOP HEATING MAY TRIGGER
A COUPLE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LESS OF AN LLVL
INVERSION...THEREFORE...I WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER
THURSDAY/S VALUES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN CHALLENGE RECORDS
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM TUESDAY...ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE AXIS
LIKELY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW VERY MILD
LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POSSIBLY REACHING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS
ON SATURDAY...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. STEERING FLOW AND BROAD INSTABILITY
FIELD MAY RESULT IN A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO
MOVE ACROSS THE MTNS...I WILL KEEP A DIURNAL MENTION OF CHC POPS.
SCHC POPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE. I WILL HEAVILY FAVOR THE HPC GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON BOTH DAYS...BUT NOT CHALLENGING ANY RECORDS. I WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SCHC RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BKN AROUND 050
BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE SITE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. ANY CONVECTION AND CIGS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE
EVENING. MVFR VSBY AND POSSIBLY CIG COULD DEVELOP NEAR DAYBREAK BUT
CHC TOO LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. SCT CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WED. SSW WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT
DIMINISH TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING WED.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY...SO HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS TO START AT KAVL. KHKY HAS THE NEXT BEST CHC OF
CONVECTION SO HAVE VCTS THERE AT 20Z. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE SC SITES...BUT SINCE IT IS ONGOING OVER THE MTNS
WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE AS WELL. CONVECTION SHUD END BY EARLY
EVENING WITH ANY BKN CU DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MVFR VSBY
LIKELY AT KAVL/KHKY/KAND WITH MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAND
AROUND DAYBREAK. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH SCT
CU CONTINUING TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. S TO SWLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT RETURN WITH MIXING WED.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHES OF FOG AND
STRATUS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. APART FROM
THAT...MOST OF THE TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN 3 DEGREES F...

KGSP
MAY 2ND  90F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  90F IN 1901...FORECAST 89F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1934...FORECAST 90F

KCLT
MAY 2ND  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 90F
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  92F IN 1959...FORECAST 91F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1955...FORECAST 90F

KAVL
MAY 2ND  88F IN 1935...FORECAST 86F
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965...FORECAST 86F

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...RWH/NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
538 AM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY MOVE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
85...DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
103 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 WSW TRAVELERS REST    34.95N 82.51W
04/27/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            BRIEF DIME SIZED HAIL.

0838 PM     HAIL             4 NNW SPRUCE PINE       35.97N 82.11W
04/30/2012  E1.25 INCH       MITCHELL           NC   PUBLIC

            HARDWARE STORE BETWEEN SPRUCE PINE AND BAKERSVILLE HAD
            ABOUT 10 MINUTES OF HAIL WITH THE LARGEST BEING AS LARGE
            AS A HALF DOLLAR. NOT MUCH WIND.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
133 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S PUMPKINTOWN         34.96N 82.65W
04/27/2012                   PICKENS            SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DACUSVILLE FIRE DEPARTMENT REMOVED A TREE FROM POWERLINES
            ON CONNELLY ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ064-SCZ002-003-011900-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-TRANSYLVANIA-
221 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN
GREENVILLE AND SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE TOXAWAY...OR 15 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKY BOTTOM...
  TABLE ROCK RESERVOIR...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3514 8298 3516 8300 3523 8261 3517 8259
      3515 8258 3515 8256 3500 8253 3498 8294
      3499 8294 3501 8292 3504 8292 3505 8290
      3503 8300 3510 8302

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

NCZ504>506-011915-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
236 PM EDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCDOWELL AND SOUTHERN
BURKE COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEBO...OR 5 MILES EAST OF MARION...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MORGANTON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3582 8162 3583 8160 3581 8159 3578 8156
      3578 8151 3561 8150 3560 8202 3579 8204
      3580 8197 3577 8192 3581 8187 3584 8163

07