Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING FOR WARM UNSETTLED WEATHER. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS...WHERE RIDGETOP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MOVING
ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT MORE SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.EAST OF THERE...LONGER TERM
PROSPECTS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMNANT OF MORNING LOW STRATUS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE SC AND NE
GEORGIA... WHICH HAS PREVENTED DESTABILIZATION. OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS...DRIER AIR HAS ALSO LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY. THINK
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS BUT WILL HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING MUCH INTO THE PIEDMONT WHERE DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE TO BREAK
OUT...SO A CHANCE WILL BE INCLUDED THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...AND WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND MOSGUIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
PAST NIGHT...HOWEVER.

EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...WITH BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING OVER TOP OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE.
THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE MAY TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT A BIT
EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RAMPED UP TO THE HIGH
END OF THE CHANCE RANGE...WHICH COULD GO HIGHER BASED ON THE VERY
HIGH POP ON THE 09Z SREF. A GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...SUNRISE THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL SWING EAST
DURING THE DAY...PLACING THE CWA UNDER THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. CAPES SHOULD POOL BETWEEN 1000 TO
1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE
IN POPS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. COVERAGE OF SHRA AND SOUTHERN TSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LOW/TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND A BACK DOOR SFC FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. I WILL INDICATE A DECREASING CHC IN TSRA AS STABLE CAD
SLOWLY BUILDS SW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL TRACK EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE LLVL...WINDS WILL REMAIN NE WITH WEAK CAD
LINGERING. ALSO...H925 MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC AND GA. IT APPEARS
THAT CAD WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NE WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE U50S TO
L60S...OR 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. POPS WILL COME TO AN END ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 PM TUESDAY...LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. H85 TEMPS WILL COOL BELOW 5C...WITH
CLEARING SKY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS THE MTNS TO L40S
EAST...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD REACH U60S
TO L70S. THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION.
MON TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER SUNDAY/S VALUES.
WEAK CAA ON TUESDAY SHOULD FAVOR MID 60S ACROSS THE MTNS WITH L70S
EAST...I WILL INDICATE SCHC POPS FOR SHRA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD FORM A BRIEF BROKEN CEILING...BUT CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUD BASE IN THE VFR
RANGE. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ANY TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO THIS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. WILL MONITOR FOR
CHANGES THIS EVENING. WIND WILL COME AROUND MORE TO THE WSW ON
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A PATCH OF LOW MVFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT ACROSS UPSTATE SC THROUGH THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT KGSP/KGMU/KAND THROUGH 20Z
TO 22Z. ONCE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WE SHOULD SEE MUCH DEEPER
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO A CB CLOUD GROUP WAS
INDICATED AFTER 22Z. KAVL WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE ACTION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BALSAMS AND
SMOKIES ARE DRIFTING TOWARD THE FR BROAD VALLEY. AN AMENDMENT MIGHT
BE NECESSARY BY 19Z. KHKY WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...BUT WITH CLOUDS
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING AROUND 040. THE CONVECTION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
KAVL WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW FOR DENSE FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT IMPEDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN AT
THE TAF SITE MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW MOISTURE AND COOL IT OFF
ENOUGH THAT FOG WOULD DEVELOP ANYWAY. THE FOG WAS TAKEN OUT FOR THIS
ISSUANCE BUT IT IS EQUALLY LIKELY TO BE PUT BACK IF THERE IS MORE OF
AN INDICATION THAT IT WILL CLEAR OFF LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE WEEK...WITH ASSOC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
TSTM CHC WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BRING WIDESPREAD LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-
509-SCZ001>005-041945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
339 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ028-029-NCZ068-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ006>008-010>012-019-041945-
HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
339 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A FEW PULSE
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHLY LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-013-014-041945-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
339 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCZ049-050-032215-
MITCHELL-YANCEY-
527 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MITCHELL AND NORTHERN YANCEY
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLAR...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
ERWIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RAMSEYTOWN...
  BULADEAN...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3615 8215 3611 8212 3611 8208 3591 8212
      3594 8248 3598 8251 3602 8245 3608 8242
      3611 8237 3614 8230 3614 8225 3616 8222

JOH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             4 SSW CARNESVILLE       34.31N 83.25W
04/03/2012  M0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            OFFICER REPORTED NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALONG ATKINSON BRIDGE
            ROAD.

0517 PM     HAIL             CARNESVILLE             34.37N 83.23W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           GA   PUBLIC

0516 PM     HAIL             SSW LAVONIA             34.43N 83.11W
04/03/2012  M0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           GA   PUBLIC

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

SCZ010-032245-
ANDERSON-
620 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANDY SPRINGS...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ANDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANDERSON...
  WILLIAMSTON...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3462 8285 3465 8281 3470 8246 3468 8245
      3467 8247 3464 8245 3463 8245 3458 8242
      3457 8243 3455 8241 3449 8240 3447 8283

ARK

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