Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

207 
WWUS52 KGSP 031750
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCC087-031815-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-120403T1815Z/
HAYWOOD NC-
150 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAYWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 148 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE JUNALUSKA...OR NEAR 
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CANTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8296 3574 8292 3561 8285 3562 8281
      3557 8277 3546 8279 3543 8308 3546 8310
      3546 8312 3551 8318 3557 8316 3560 8319
      3563 8317 3579 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 255DEG 11KT 3553 8295

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY...AND BACK DOOR ITS WAY ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING ONCE AGAIN. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WEAKEN
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF MID MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF LOW
STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND EXTENDING UP NORTH JUST EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS CLOUD AREA SHOULD START TO LIFT AND MIX OUT
AROUND THE EDGES BY 15Z AND SCATTER OUT BY 16Z-17Z...AT WHICH TIME
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL NEED A
MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMUP IN THE CLOUDY AREAS...BUT MAX TEMPS
DO NOT YET APPEAR TO BE IN DANGER.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER...WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV/S WILL GRADUALLY HELP TO
WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SFC...LLVL CONVERGENCE
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE MTNS. WHILE THERE WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...THERE SHOULD STILL
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY
AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN. POPS HAVE BEEN NOTCHED UP
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE ADJACENT
FORECAST OFFICES DOING THE SAME. STORMS WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST THIS
AFTN...AND BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS. IT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MAKING MUCH EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THE NC ZONES WITH DRIER LLVL AIR IN PLACE.

DOWN ACROSS SC AND NE GA THE STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE LUCK.
THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE ACROSS SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I FAVOR THE NAM WHICH MAINTAINS
THE IDENTITY OF THE WEAK WEDGE RIDGE OVER WRN GA TDA. THIS WILL
FAVOR AREAS WEST OF THE FA FOR THE BEST AFTN AND EVENING COVERAGE
OUTSIDE THE MTNS. STRATO-CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ALSO FILL IN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPSTATE. THE
CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT SHOULD
HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC
ZONES AND ERN UPSTATE. THAT/S SOMEWHAT RELATIVE AS TEMPS WILL STILL
RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MID LEVELS ARE STILL RATHER
WARM...AND MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

CONVECTION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN/SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM
FEATURE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVING OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WILL INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS ALONG
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW YET ANOTHER (STRONGER)
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE TENN VALLEY
UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING OVER THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE TOMORROW...OWING
MAINLY TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS/WEAK LAPSE RATES. NEVERTHELESS...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME DEGREE OF FORCING...30-50 POPS ARE
WARRANTED...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTH NEARER
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. SINCE INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND
SHEAR LITTLE MORE THAN RESPECTABLE...CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.

BY EARLY THURSDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR. IN FACT...WITH FROPA
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT...MAX TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL (OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL) FOR A
CHANGE. MEANWHILE...THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND RESULTANT IMPROVING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
UPGLIDE OVER DEVELOPING COLD AIR WEDGE SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANDING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.

RELATIVELY HIGH POPS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEGREE OF
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT A LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FROM THU
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AS DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAY LEAVE LINGERING
DEFORMATION ZONE/WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL THEREFORE BE RETAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR A CHANGE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME ON
FRIDAY...THEN RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS RAPIDLY MODIFIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DISAGREE IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE/PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND CONSIDERING ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE AIRFIELD THIS
MORNING...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. AN MVFR DECK IS
STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE IN...THOUGH THE TIMING HAS BEEN BUMPED BACK A
LITTLE TO 1400 UTC. IT SHOULD COME IN UP AROUND 2KFT. A GENERAL ESE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND NOON...WITH
THE WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER. ISOLATED TO SCT TSTMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN...THOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
THOUGH CONDITIONS DON/T LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG OR LOW STRATUS
WITH A LIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

ELSEWHERE...THE NAM MOS DID A GOOD JOB WITH THE LOW CIGS AS KGSP AND
KGMU WENT IFR AT 1000 UTC. THE LLVL FLOW ISN/T QUITE AS FAVORABLE AT
KAND...BUT AN MVFR DECK IS EXPECTED THERE IN SHORT ORDER...AND AN
IFR TEMP GROUND HAS BEEN ADDED. THE IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO
THE THE MVFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT BY EARLY AFTN.
KAVL HAS HAD NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. I DON/T SEE ANY FOG OR
STRATUS ON THE FOG PRODUCT...SO I/LL GO WITH VFR CONDITIONS THERE
THIS MORNING. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTN AND
CB/S HAVE BEEN RETAINED THERE. KAVL WILL FALL WELL BELOW THEIR
CROSSOVER TEMP TONIGHT...AND DENSE VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP. KHKY
SHOULD RETAIN MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT HAS TURNED THE WINDS OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. KAVL IS CALM. THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH BY AROUND NOON...AND STAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AT LIGHT SPEEDS.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE WEEK...WITH ASSOC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
TSTM CHC WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID-WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND
VSBYS BY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068-501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-041030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
616 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCZ052-031730-
HAYWOOD-
1254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM EDT...

AT 1251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVE CREEK...OR 13 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3579 8296 3575 8296 3575 8293 3562 8285
      3562 8284 3561 8283 3554 8315 3560 8318
      3563 8317 3565 8320 3567 8318 3568 8321
      3571 8323

NED