Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

384 
WWUS52 KGSP 032001
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCC011-111-121-199-032012-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-120403T2030Z/
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL NC-
401 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MCDOWELL...EAST
CENTRAL YANCEY...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AVERY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3597 8193 3596 8194 3591 8191 3588 8191
      3585 8192 3583 8195 3581 8199 3572 8188
      3579 8227 3597 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 275DEG 8KT 3587 8205

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
256 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING FOR WARM UNSETTLED WEATHER. A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...KGSP RADAR CONTINUES TO LIGHT UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SRN MTNS...WHERE RIDGETOP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE A COLD POOL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM MOVING
ALL THE WAY TO THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT MORE SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MTNS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON.EAST OF THERE...LONGER TERM
PROSPECTS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN. THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REMNANT OF MORNING LOW STRATUS COVERING MOST OF UPSTATE SC AND NE
GEORGIA... WHICH HAS PREVENTED DESTABILIZATION. OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS...DRIER AIR HAS ALSO LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY. THINK
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS BUT WILL HAVE
TROUBLE REACHING MUCH INTO THE PIEDMONT WHERE DEWPTS ARE IN THE LOW
50S. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR NE GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE TO BREAK
OUT...SO A CHANCE WILL BE INCLUDED THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD ONCE AGAIN...AND WERE KEPT NEAR A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND MOSGUIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS
PAST NIGHT...HOWEVER.

EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...WITH BETTER
UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE COMING OVER TOP OF
THE UPPER RIDGE. SOME WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE.
THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE MAY TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT A BIT
EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE RAMPED UP TO THE HIGH
END OF THE CHANCE RANGE...WHICH COULD GO HIGHER BASED ON THE VERY
HIGH POP ON THE 09Z SREF. A GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...SUNRISE THURSDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL SWING EAST
DURING THE DAY...PLACING THE CWA UNDER THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES MAY PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. CAPES SHOULD POOL BETWEEN 1000 TO
1500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG QG FORCING AND INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE
IN POPS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. COVERAGE OF SHRA AND SOUTHERN TSRA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL LOW/TROF
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND A BACK DOOR SFC FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH. I WILL INDICATE A DECREASING CHC IN TSRA AS STABLE CAD
SLOWLY BUILDS SW DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL TRACK EAST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. AT THE LLVL...WINDS WILL REMAIN NE WITH WEAK CAD
LINGERING. ALSO...H925 MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SC AND GA. IT APPEARS
THAT CAD WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
NE WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE U50S TO
L60S...OR 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. POPS WILL COME TO AN END ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUESDAY...THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...AS DEPARTING UPPER LOW MAY LEAVE LINGERING
DEFORMATION ZONE/WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL THEREFORE BE RETAINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THROUGH FRI NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LOW...RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER FOR A CHANGE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN LINGERING COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME ON
FRIDAY...THEN RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS RAPIDLY MODIFIES. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT DISAGREE IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE/PRECIP POTENTIAL. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER THE SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND CONSIDERING ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS AT DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD FORM A BRIEF BROKEN CEILING...BUT CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUD BASE IN THE VFR
RANGE. OTHERWISE...WIND WILL REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
PIEDMONT WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE EAST OF ANY TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO THIS WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. WILL MONITOR FOR
CHANGES THIS EVENING. WIND WILL COME AROUND MORE TO THE WSW ON
WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A PATCH OF LOW MVFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT ACROSS UPSTATE SC THROUGH THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL KEEP AN MVFR CLOUD CEILING AT KGSP/KGMU/KAND THROUGH 20Z
TO 22Z. ONCE THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WE SHOULD SEE MUCH DEEPER
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO...SO A CB CLOUD GROUP WAS
INDICATED AFTER 22Z. KAVL WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE ACTION THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BALSAMS AND
SMOKIES ARE DRIFTING TOWARD THE FR BROAD VALLEY. AN AMENDMENT MIGHT
BE NECESSARY BY 19Z. KHKY WILL BE SIMILAR TO KCLT...BUT WITH CLOUDS
PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO CONSTITUTE A CEILING AROUND 040. THE CONVECTION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
KAVL WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW FOR DENSE FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL BE CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT IMPEDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ANY RAIN AT
THE TAF SITE MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW MOISTURE AND COOL IT OFF
ENOUGH THAT FOG WOULD DEVELOP ANYWAY. THE FOG WAS TAKEN OUT FOR THIS
ISSUANCE BUT IT IS EQUALLY LIKELY TO BE PUT BACK IF THERE IS MORE OF
AN INDICATION THAT IT WILL CLEAR OFF LATE TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE WEEK...WITH ASSOC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
TSTM CHC WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. COLD AIR DAMMING MAY BRING WIDESPREAD LOW
CIGS AND VSBYS BY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068-501>510-SCZ001>008-010>013-019-041030-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
616 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION OUT
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHLY LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             2 W CANTON              35.55N 82.88W
04/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 5-10 MINUTES.

&&

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCZ051-058-031945-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SWAIN AND NORTHEASTERN
GRAHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 253 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALMOND...OR 10 MILES WEST OF
BRYSON CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRYSON CITY...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3535 8375 3553 8370 3560 8337 3533 8338
      3532 8341 3532 8344 3531 8345

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             1 SE ALMOND             35.36N 83.55W
04/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       SWAIN              NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            OBSERVED AT WEST SWAIN FD

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     HAIL             3 S TUCKASEGEE          35.23N 83.12W
04/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            OBSERVED AT THORPE DAM POWERHOUSE. HAIL WAS REPORTED TO
            HAVE COVERED THE GROUND ABT ONE-HALF MILE NORTH OF HERE.

&&

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             1 NW CULLOWHEE          35.32N 83.19W
04/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       JACKSON            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED BY CULLOWHEE VFD.

&&

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

NCZ049-050-505-032000-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
320 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...
OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MICAVILLE...
  BUSICK...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3592 8204 3567 8210 3573 8232 3575 8234
      3579 8234 3580 8234 3582 8236 3582 8241
      3583 8242 3594 8239

ARK