Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY TUESDAY. THAT FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA
FOR THIS EVE. POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER WERE INCREASED ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS UPDATE.

AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW IN THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE A TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NC MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SURVIVING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS HEATING ABATES AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES...AND WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO WSW AND
NW. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE SC BORDER BY DAYBREAK...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
WITH IT. VERY SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...THEN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN UNSTABLE AIR. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW ND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUOTE WARM MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE...BUT WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWN UNDER THE CLOUD
COVER IN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. ALOFT...A
SHALLOW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER SW TOWARD THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALLOW ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WILL
ADVERTISE HIGHER CHC POPS IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE ERN PIEDMONT. WENT
WITH WITH A SHARPER GRADIENT OF NE TO SW MAX TEMPS ON TUE AFTN GIVEN
THE FRONTAL POSITION.

THE CONTRAST ACROSS THE SFC FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STEADILY LIFTS BACK NE THROUGH WED AS A SFC LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE LOW. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH
THE GFS SLOWEST...WHILE THE GEFS/SREF MEANS ARE IN BETWEEN. A BLEND
ON TIMING IS FEATURED...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
MAXIMIZED IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WED AFTN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM 1
TO 2 CATEGORIES OVER TUE AS THE REGION BECOMES MORE SOLIDLY WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OVER KANSAS
AT 00Z THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM TENNESSEE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS.  THE GFS CREATES MORE OF A COOL AIR WEDGE ON THURSDAY
WITH DRIER AIR EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 AT 12Z THUR.  THERE ARE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES TOWARD OUR
AREA INTO FRIDAY.  HIGHER CAPE VALUES ON THURSDAY FROM THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO NE GA TO UPSTATE.  SOME HIGHER SHEAR VALUES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING.  ECMWF IS
MORE CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND GFS MORE NORTH
SUCH AS ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS TENDS TO LINGER THE MOISTURE AROUND INTO SATURDAY.  THE UPPER
RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE ON SUNDAY.  CLOUDINESS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ACROSS TENNESSEE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVE WITH
COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW...PSBLY BRINGING SOME LOW
CLOUDS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON LOW CIGS MON MRNG SO
ADJUSTED TAFS ACCORDINGLY. WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING AROUND DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCES FOR TS
WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID-WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT/RB
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-021930-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE MOUNTAIN OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ALSO
RECEIVE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ501>510-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-021930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ALSO
RECEIVE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-021930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
533 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BLACK MOUNTAIN     35.63N 82.31W
04/01/2012                   BUNCOMBE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TREE DOWN IN THE BACKYARD.

&&

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
546 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

SCZ010-011-012215-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-
546 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHERN ANDERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF LOWNDESVILLE...OR 15 MILES WEST
OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABBEVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3406 8246 3407 8248 3406 8254 3421 8274
      3425 8274 3437 8263 3415 8225 3406 8235
      3405 8242

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW MARION            35.66N 82.02W
04/01/2012                   MCDOWELL           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ALONG SUGER HILL ROAD.

&&

JOH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
559 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

NCZ056-068>070-504-508-012245-
CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-GASTON-GREATER BURKE-GREATER RUTHERFORD-LINCOLN-
559 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLEVELAND...EASTERN RUTHERFORD...
LINCOLN...SOUTHERN BURKE...SOUTHERN CATAWBA AND WESTERN GASTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CASAR TO CHESNEE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  POLKVILLE...
  BOILING SPRINGS NC...
  LAWNDALE...
  VALE...
  EARL...
  CHERRYVILLE...

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3559 8101 3515 8116 3519 8196 3565 8176

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

SCZ011-019-012245-
ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
614 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABBEVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3399 8232 3406 8234 3406 8244 3415 8260
      3430 8249 3413 8210 3398 8222 3401 8226
      3397 8230

HG

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