Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND STALL OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY TUESDAY. THAT FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT IN MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL REACH OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS NOW IN THE PLAINS WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE A TROUGH
DOWNSTREAM SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE NC MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS SURVIVING ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS HEATING ABATES AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES...AND WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO WSW AND
NW. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THE SC BORDER BY DAYBREAK...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS
WITH IT. VERY SMALL POPS WILL BE CARRIED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...THEN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN UNSTABLE AIR. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW ND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUOTE WARM MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH THE
ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE...BUT WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWN UNDER THE CLOUD
COVER IN NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING. ALOFT...A
SHALLOW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER SW TOWARD THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
ALLOW ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WILL
ADVERTISE HIGHER CHC POPS IN THE MTNS MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE ERN PIEDMONT. WENT
WITH WITH A SHARPER GRADIENT OF NE TO SW MAX TEMPS ON TUE AFTN GIVEN
THE FRONTAL POSITION.

THE CONTRAST ACROSS THE SFC FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STEADILY LIFTS BACK NE THROUGH WED AS A SFC LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SE
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE LOW. THE NAM IS FASTEST WITH
THE GFS SLOWEST...WHILE THE GEFS/SREF MEANS ARE IN BETWEEN. A BLEND
ON TIMING IS FEATURED...WITH SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
MAXIMIZED IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WED AFTN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM 1
TO 2 CATEGORIES OVER TUE AS THE REGION BECOMES MORE SOLIDLY WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE CUT OFF LOW OVER KANSAS
AT 00Z THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING EAST FROM TENNESSEE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS.  THE GFS CREATES MORE OF A COOL AIR WEDGE ON THURSDAY
WITH DRIER AIR EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 AT 12Z THUR.  THERE ARE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES TOWARD OUR
AREA INTO FRIDAY.  HIGHER CAPE VALUES ON THURSDAY FROM THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS TO NE GA TO UPSTATE.  SOME HIGHER SHEAR VALUES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING.  ECMWF IS
MORE CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND GFS MORE NORTH
SUCH AS ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
GFS TENDS TO LINGER THE MOISTURE AROUND INTO SATURDAY.  THE UPPER
RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE ON SUNDAY.  CLOUDINESS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ACROSS TENNESSEE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRY
AIR ERODE THE EDGED OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER. AFTERWARD...CIRRUS WILL
DOMINATE THE SKY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ANVIL DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN
THE TN VALLEY ARRIVES. SW WINDS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...THEN VEER NW
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING AN
MVFR CIG. WINDS WILL KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE...CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN KY WILL ARRIVE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION ITSELF WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION REACHING THE SC TAF SITES
REMAINS IN DOUBT...BUT CB AND A LOW VFR CIG WILL BE CARRIED AT
KAVL...AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT THE FOOTHILL SITES. SW WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TO WSW TONIGHT....TURNING NW IN THE NC MOUNTAINS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN NC...BRINGING LOW
CLOUDS...AND VEERING WINDS TO THE NW EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
CLOUD COVER DOES APPEAR TO REACH SC EAST OF KGSP AND KSPA MONDAY
MORNING. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A MENTION AT AT NC SITES MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
ISOLATED TO MENTION.

OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCES FOR TS
WILL INCREASE TOWARD MID-WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-021930-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH THE MOUNTAIN OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ALSO
RECEIVE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ501>510-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-021930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST WELL
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY ALSO
RECEIVE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-021930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
318 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH THE PIEDMONT FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             HODGES                  34.29N 82.25W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC IN HODGES. TIME
            OBTAINED FROM RADAR DATA.

0854 PM     HAIL             5 WSW GREENWOOD         34.16N 82.23W
03/31/2012  E1.50 INCH       GREENWOOD          SC   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL FELL ON HANOVER ROAD NEAR THE
            GREENWOOD AND ABBEVILLE COUNTY LINE. STRONG WIND AS WELL
            BUT NO KNOWN DAMAGE IN THE AREA.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

NCZ048-051-052-012030-
HAYWOOD-MADISON-SWAIN-
353 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...NORTHERN
HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF WHITE PINE...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
DANDRIDGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...NORTHERN HAYWOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

WATERVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3573 8271 3568 8282 3570 8285 3567 8289
      3566 8288 3549 8331 3567 8335 3566 8330
      3573 8324 3573 8321 3577 8316 3580 8308
      3578 8299 3587 8291

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004-012030-
FRANKLIN-GREATER OCONEE-HART-STEPHENS-
403 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STEPHENS...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN HART AND SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AVALON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
TOCCOA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE HARTWELL...
  WHITWORTH...
  FAIR PLAY...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3446 8332 3461 8323 3461 8317 3453 8294
      3452 8294 3448 8299 3449 8290 3448 8289
      3434 8304

HG