Alert archive / South Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

March 31, 2012York County, South Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this special weather statement at Mar 31, 2012, 8:45 PM EDT for York County, South Carolina. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2012, 8:45 PM EDT (00:45 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2012, 9:30 PM EDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

County York County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.8 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 372 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -18 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1795 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 31, 8:00 PM EDT, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 8:00 PM EDT, 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
800 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...REACHING THE COAST ON SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
THEN MOVE IN AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
ANOTHER NORTHERN GULF WEATHER DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE PICTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...PLENTY OF INSTBY ACRS THE CWFA...AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ATTM. WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
OVER 1000 J/KG ACRS THE PIEDMONT...A FEW SVR STORMS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY EVENING. UPDATED THE POPS TO RELFECT RADAR TRENDS.
OVERALL...HIGH-RES MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR THE UPSTATE FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT...WHILE ISOLD CONVECTION WANES ACRS
THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.

AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FORM
THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FRONT AND INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF TI WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN IN A NW FLOW WITH
DRYING BELOW 850 MB IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING SYSTEM. NAM CAPE
EXCEEDS 1000 J/KG IN THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND UP TO
1000 J/KG APPEARS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT. ENOUGH VERTICAL
SPEED SHEAR IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND.

THE FRONT EXITS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS FOG
BY DAYBREAK ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT NO MORE THAN PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS SUPPORTED AT THIS TIME. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES AWAY FROM
OUR AREA...LEADING TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ON SUNDAY A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...AN MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOWS SOME BRIEF MOISTURE AT 850 MB
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME...WITH THE MAV CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...AND THE
NAM ONLY SINGLE DIGITS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR MID MAY
NORMALS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH NW FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A TROUGH AND EASTERN PORTION OF A MISS VALLEY
RIDGE.  MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE FROM GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AND OFF THE JERSEY COAST EARLY MONDAY.  DISSIPATING ENERGY WILL
LEAVE SOME CLOUDINESS OVER NC MOUNTAINS MONDAY.  THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR CLT AND GSP IF THE
FORECAST HOLDS.  MOUNTAIN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
THE RECORD AT AVL OF 87 DEGREES...BUT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WOULD
BREAK THE RECORD OF 84 AT GSP AND THE 86 RECORD AT CLT.

THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT NO
LONGER A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD
CERTAINLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORDS OF 87 AT GSP AND 90 AT
CLT.  CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING ON TUESDAY AS WE WILL HAVE A
FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND A FRONT MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.  GFS HAS
CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 1600 RANGE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE GA
AND UPSTATE AND NOSING INTO THE SHELBY AND GASTON AREA OF NC.
CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS OPPOSED TO
FRIDAY WHEN THOSE WERE EXTREMELY DIFFERENT BY DAY 7.  AT 00Z
WED...BOTH HAVE THE LOW GENERALLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THE GFS
HAS IT MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND OPENING IT UP BY 00Z FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES SE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM KENTUCKY.  THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
A CUT OFF LOW FROM OKLAHOMA TO REACH SAVANNAH GA AT 06Z SATURDAY.
THERE ARE VARIOUS SMALL SCALE FEATURES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN FEATURE WHICH AFFECTS OUR WEATHER IN MID TO
LATE WEEK.  HPC WENT CLOSER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AND THAT ONE HAS
MORE OF A DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH CENTERED EASTERN GREAT LAKES / PA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  THE ECMWF HAS THE CUT OFF LOW BECOMING
ALMOST STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NEAR SAVANNAH.  THIS
BEING DISCOUNTED...WE SHOULD HAVE DRYING CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEKEND...UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM REACHES OUR AREA FROM THE WEST.
THAT NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS DELAYED UNTIL SOMETIME THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
GOING WITH BEST CONVECTION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHEAR
VALUES LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL MID WEEK
AND CLOSE TO NORMAL BY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...A FEW ISOLD SHRA/TSRA IN THE AREA...BUT NOT LIKELY TO MAKE
DIRECT IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE TDWR DOES SHOW SOME SUBTLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRIFTING SWD. SO
THINK THE WIND SHUD SHIFT TO PREDOMINATELY N...BUT REMAIN LIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY JUST SOME CIRRUS WITH LGT WINDS. GUIDANCE
GENERALLY TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTIC...WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG IN
THE AREA. SO ONLY GOING MVFR BR AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR RETURNS BY MID
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS VEER FROM N/NE TO S AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A CLUSTER OF TSRA HAVE SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH OF
KGMU/KGSP...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF KAND. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
AND LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING N/NE THIS EVENING. FAIRLY DECENT AMOUNT OF
RAIN FELL AT KGMU AND KGSP. SO THERE IS SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT THOSE
SITES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU AND USHER IN
DRIER AIR. WITH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE ONLY MVFR BR AT KAND/KHKY PER
PREVIOUS TAF...AND AT KGMU/KGSP. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SWLY WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA AND TSTMS INTO THE REGION TUE AND WED. IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
RESTRICTIVE CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 6:02 AM EDT, 14 hours 43 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM
WILL BE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 8:26 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
826 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             WARE SHOALS             34.39N 82.24W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM RELAYED REPORT FROM WARE SHOALS PD.

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 8:29 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
829 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             4 NE DUE WEST           34.37N 82.35W
03/31/2012  E0.88 INCH       ABBEVILLE          SC   PUBLIC

            ROBINSON STREET IN DONALDS.

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 8:35 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
835 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     HAIL             HODGES                  34.29N 82.25W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       GREENWOOD          SC   PUBLIC

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 8:37 PM EDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
837 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             2 NE HONEA PATH         34.47N 82.37W
03/31/2012  E0.75 INCH       ANDERSON           SC   PUBLIC

&&

CSH

Local storm report, Mar 31, 8:39 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
839 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             NINETY SIX              34.17N 82.02W
03/31/2012  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          SC   PUBLIC

&&

CSH

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 8:45 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
845 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

SCZ009-014-010130-
CHESTER-YORK-
845 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CHESTER AND YORK
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF CLOVER...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF
YORK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  YORK...
  MCCONNELLS...
  ROCK HILL...

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3471 8111 3510 8141 3512 8140 3517 8133
      3516 8119 3486 8087

RB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 9:22 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Avery	38 min
Apr 1, 3:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Haywood	37 min
Apr 1, 4:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Haywood, Madison, Yancey	65 min
Apr 1, 5:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Burke, Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford and 1 more	57 min
Apr 1, 5:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln	46 min
Apr 1, 6:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Graham, Swain	38 min
Apr 1, 6:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Catawba, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg	47 min
Mar 31, 8:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Abbeville, Greenwood, Laurens	64 min
Mar 31, 8:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Chester, York	19 min
Apr 1, 5:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Abbeville	42 min
Apr 1, 5:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Abbeville	29 min
Apr 1, 6:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Abbeville	31 min
Apr 1, 6:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Greenwood	26 min
Apr 1, 6:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Laurens, Union	49 min
Apr 1, 7:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Laurens	49 min
Apr 1, 4:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GSP	Franklin	27 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in South Carolina, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.