Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Hastings, NE

052 
WWUS53 KGID 301915
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
215 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEC073-137-301945-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-120530T1945Z/
GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
215 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PHELPS
AND EASTERN GOSPER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BERTRAND...OR 15 MILES WEST OF HOLDREGE...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN PHELPS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9978 4067 9957 4039 9957 4042 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 275DEG 51KT 4048 9962
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

FAY

311 
WWUS53 KGID 301929
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
229 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEC073-137-301945-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-120530T1945Z/
GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
229 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PHELPS
AND EASTERN GOSPER COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOOMIS
TO SMITHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT AT 226 PM CDT GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN 
BERTRAND WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN GOSPER AND WESTERN PHELPS
  COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 9974 4067 9957 4039 9957 4042 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 274DEG 49KT 4050 9953 4050 9969
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.50IN

$$

FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
146 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN
CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY IS POSITIONED FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND ON
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED VALUES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
INFILTRATING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
OUTFLOW AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER IS PROMOTING A BIT MORE CHAOTIC
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR CWA...THAN THAT OF THE TRUE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WHICH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP. KUEX INDICATES
CONVECTION PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS HELPING PROMOTE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION AND RESULTANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATION OVER OUR
CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG THE 300-310K SURFACES. LAPS PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA SUGGEST AIR
PARCELS...ASCENDING FROM AROUND 700MB...ARE CONTENDING WITH LESS
THAN 30J/KG CIN AND 600-1000J/KG CAPE. IN ADDITION...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET ENERGY IS ALSO HELPING PROMOTE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 30-40KTS. EVEN THOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COOL LOW TO MID LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MORE THAN COMPENSATING...WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER-SIZE HAIL ALREADY REPORTED ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. BROAD-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ALSO LIKELY PERSISTING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RESULT.

WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD VARY MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF MAY INDICATE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED ON THE WEST COAST...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. A FEW
SCATTERED RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE 18Z TIME FRAME. THE SREF
AND GFS BOTH EXPECT POPS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE NAM...EC AND 4 KM WRF KEEP
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE HRRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE POPS GENERATED AT ALL.
REGRETTABLY...FILLING IN OF THE POPS ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

REGARDING POPS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE OPEN WAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS...EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER
THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE NEARLY 1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0 TO 6 KM ALSO ARE INDICATIVE OF SEVERE CHANCES
WITH NEARLY 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FAR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SREF...NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE OVEN WAVE
PUSHES PAST THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASE DRASTICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS INDICATES NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING AGAIN WITH NIGHTFALL. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO BE QUITE TRICKY DEPENDING BOTH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY...WHILE
EXPECT MUCH OF AREA ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT ON FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY TO NEARLY 800 MB. GIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX
TRACKING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO A LOW
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR
MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
BUT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK VORT MAX TRYING TO PRESS UP
ON THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CARRY THE POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM BY 20 PERCENT BELOW CONSALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO DOUBTS ABOUT
VERY MANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM UNDER A RATHER DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BRYANT
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SATLZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
311415-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
HAIL TO AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO
OSBORNE KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
126 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             KEARNEY                 40.70N 99.08W
05/30/2012  E0.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
144 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             4 SW BLUE HILL          40.29N 98.50W
05/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
146 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             5 N MILLER              41.00N 99.39W
05/30/2012  E0.25 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

&&

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
146 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEZ076-077-086-087-301930-
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-NUCKOLLS NE-THAYER NE-
146 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN THAYER...NORTHEASTERN
NUCKOLLS...SOUTHERN FILLMORE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 140 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OAK...OR 32 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ONG...
  DAVENPORT...
  CARLETON...
  HEBRON...
  BRUNING...
  BELVIDERE...
  ALEXANDRIA...

LAT...LON 4015 9736 4019 9797 4041 9797 4041 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 272DEG 35KT 4028 9788

HEINLEIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
149 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             6 NNE MILLER            41.01N 99.35W
05/30/2012  E0.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   PUBLIC

&&

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
157 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEZ072-301930-
GOSPER NE-
157 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GOSPER COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF ELWOOD...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN GOSPER COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4056 9997 4055 9966 4039 9964 4040 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 260DEG 24KT 4048 9980

FAY