Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Hastings, NE

776 
WWUS53 KGID 301806
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
106 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEC047-137-301830-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-120530T1830Z/
DAWSON NE-PHELPS NE-
106 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
PHELPS AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 103 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELM CREEK TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF
OVERTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4063 9957 4071 9948 4078 9949 4078 9943
      4064 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 282DEG 26KT 4075 9940 4068 9941
          4063 9947
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

FAY

771 
WWUS53 KGID 301814
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
114 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEC047-137-301825-
/O.CAN.KGID.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-120530T1830Z/
DAWSON NE-PHELPS NE-
114 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL PHELPS AND
SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4063 9957 4071 9948 4078 9949 4078 9943
      4064 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 282DEG 26KT 4074 9932 4067 9933
          4062 9939

$$

FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD VARY MORE THAN WHAT THE TAF MAY INDICATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED ON THE WEST COAST...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. A FEW
SCATTERED RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE 18Z TIME FRAME. THE SREF
AND GFS BOTH EXPECT POPS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE NAM...EC AND 4 KM WRF KEEP
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE HRRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE POPS GENERATED AT ALL.
REGRETTABLY...FILLING IN OF THE POPS ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

REGARDING POPS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE OPEN WAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS...EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER
THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE NEARLY 1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0 TO 6 KM ALSO ARE INDICATIVE OF SEVERE CHANCES
WITH NEARLY 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FAR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SREF...NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE OVEN WAVE
PUSHES PAST THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASE DRASTICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS INDICATES NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING AGAIN WITH NIGHTFALL. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO BE QUITE TRICKY DEPENDING BOTH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY...WHILE
EXPECT MUCH OF AREA ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT ON FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY TO NEARLY 800 MB. GIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX
TRACKING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO A LOW
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR
MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
BUT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK VORT MAX TRYING TO PRESS UP
ON THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CARRY THE POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM BY 20 PERCENT BELOW CONSALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO DOUBTS ABOUT
VERY MANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM UNDER A RATHER DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...SALTZMAN
LONG TERM...WESELY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
311415-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
HAIL TO AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO
OSBORNE KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             9 N ELWOOD              40.72N 99.86W
05/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

            WATER COVERING THE ROAD AS WELL.

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 PM     HAIL             JOHNSON LAKE            40.68N 99.85W
05/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       GOSPER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             3 S LEXINGTON           40.73N 99.75W
05/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEZ072-073-301815-
GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PHELPS AND CENTRAL GOSPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1239 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SMITHFIELD...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  SMITHFIELD...
  BERTRAND...
  LOOMIS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4062 9943 4046 9944 4046 9996 4062 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 264DEG 36KT 4054 9978

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1251 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             ELM CREEK               40.72N 99.38W
05/30/2012  E0.88 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

GUERRERO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEZ075>077-085>087-301845-
ADAMS NE-CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-NUCKOLLS NE-THAYER NE-WEBSTER NE-
1256 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS...NORTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...NORTHWESTERN THAYER...NORTHERN NUCKOLLS...SOUTHWESTERN
FILLMORE AND SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
WEBSTER COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM CDT.

AT 1253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUE HILL...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF
HASTINGS...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROSEMONT...
  LAWRENCE...
  DEWEESE...
  FAIRFIELD...
  EDGAR...
  OAK...
  ONG...
  DAVENPORT...
  SHICKLEY...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4044 9769 4019 9772 4022 9831 4035 9860
      4046 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 275DEG 36KT 4036 9843

HEINLEIN