Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Hastings, NE

546 
WWUS53 KGID 301528
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1028 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEC047-073-137-301600-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-120530T1600Z/
DAWSON NE-GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
1028 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PHELPS...NORTHERN GOSPER AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100
AM CDT...

AT 1025 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED NEAR JOHNSON LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEXINGTON...SMITHFIELD AND OVERTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4081 9998 4077 9943 4072 9943 4060 9943
      4052 9960 4062 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 277DEG 32KT 4074 9980 4068 9982
          4064 9989
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

FAY

420 
WWUS53 KGID 301546
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1046 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEC047-073-137-301600-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-120530T1600Z/
DAWSON NE-GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
1046 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
PHELPS...NORTHERN GOSPER AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100
AM CDT...

AT 1043 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON TO
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD TO SMITHFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  OVERTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4080 9983 4077 9943 4060 9943 4052 9960
      4062 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 277DEG 32KT 4071 9964 4065 9966
          4061 9973
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE TAF
24HR VALID PERIOD CENTERS AROUND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN PRETTY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF KGRI OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACK INTO THE KGRI AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. WILL KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UP IN THE VFR
RANGE...BUT THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE KNOCKED BACK IF THE SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WERE TO BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH. THERE MIGHT THEN BE A
PRETTY GOOD LULL PERIOD...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PROJECT WHEN OR
HOW LONG THE LULL WILL BE. EXPECT THAT A LATER ROUND OR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE KGRI AREA THIS
EVENING. THE WIND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...HELPING TO BREAK DOWN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. A SECONDARY RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED ON THE WEST COAST...AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. A FEW
SCATTERED RETURNS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THE WAVE MOVES CLOSER ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE 18Z TIME FRAME. THE SREF
AND GFS BOTH EXPECT POPS TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE NAM...EC AND 4 KM WRF KEEP
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE HRRR REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH VERY LITTLE POPS GENERATED AT ALL.
REGRETTABLY...FILLING IN OF THE POPS ALONG THE TROUGH THIS MORNING
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE CASE...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

REGARDING POPS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE OPEN WAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE PLAINS...EXPECTING MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SURFACE LOW...HOWEVER
THE GFS DOES ADVERTISE NEARLY 1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE SKIRTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER AXIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE MENTION
OF SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS FROM 0 TO 6 KM ALSO ARE INDICATIVE OF SEVERE CHANCES
WITH NEARLY 35 TO 50 KTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE FAR
NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE WITH VERY LITTLE CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THE SREF...NAM...GFS...AND
ECMWF ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE OVEN WAVE
PUSHES PAST THE REGION. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS DECREASE DRASTICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...THUS EXPECTING MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...COMPLETELY
CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...SLIDES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE COULD GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE GFS INDICATES NEAR 1000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE
QUICKLY DECREASING AGAIN WITH NIGHTFALL. THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE WEST SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM. EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY TO BE QUITE TRICKY DEPENDING BOTH ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER. WENT WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TODAY...WHILE
EXPECT MUCH OF AREA ON THURSDAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A BIT ON FRIDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
MIXING DURING THE DAY TO NEARLY 800 MB. GIVEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION ALONG WITH A FEW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A NOTABLE WARMING TREND. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
RESULTING IN HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX
TRACKING BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA LEADING TO A LOW
END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE PLAINS WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OUR
MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY
BUT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH A WEAK VORT MAX TRYING TO PRESS UP
ON THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL CARRY THE POPS ON TUESDAY...BUT LOWERED
THEM BY 20 PERCENT BELOW CONSALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO DOUBTS ABOUT
VERY MANY THUNDERSTORMS BEING ABLE TO FORM UNDER A RATHER DOMINATING
UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
516 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
311030-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
516 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
HAIL TO AT LEAST THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO
OSBORNE KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON NEBRASKA TO
OSBORNE KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
857 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEZ060-072-301430-
DAWSON NE-GOSPER NE-
857 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GOSPER AND SOUTHWESTERN
DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 852 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES WEST OF
GOTHENBURG TO 8 MILES WEST OF EUSTIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  JOHNSON LAKE...
  COZAD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 219 AND 236.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4088 10023 4088 9987 4064 9969 4062 9998
      4069 9999 4070 10022 4070 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1357Z 265DEG 31KT 4084 10047 4066 10012

FAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
946 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

NEZ060-301515-
DAWSON NE-
946 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL
1015 AM CDT...

AT 943 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF EUSTIS...OR 26 MILES WEST
OF LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  FARNAM...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 225 AND 227.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4086 10022 4083 9990 4070 9994 4069 9999
      4070 10022 4070 10023 4072 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 278DEG 26KT 4075 10022

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1013 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 AM     HAIL             6 N EUSTIS              40.75N 100.03W
05/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       DAWSON             NE   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

GUERRERO