Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
117 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM AROUND KGLE...KDTO...KDAL EASTWARD THROUGH 20Z. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE WEST OF A CHILDRESS...
ABILENE...SAN ANGELO LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AFTER 02Z...AS NOTED
BY THE VCTS/TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAY
AFFECT THE AIRPORT AFTER 09Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES 15-16Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

58

&&

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT TO
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
ATHENS TO NORTH OF WACO AND THEN NORTHWEST TOWARDS GRAHAM. WITH
THE ATMOSPHERE STILL UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR LIFT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

REGARDING STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS THAT COULD UNFOLD
LATER TODAY. FIRST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND WILL FORM IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS COULD
EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT REACHES NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THE
OTHER SCENARIO INVOLVES ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS OKLAHOMA. THIS MCS COULD ALSO
MARCH SOUTH CROSSING THE RED RIVER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH ONE OR BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS POSSIBLE...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR THIS EVENING TO INCREASE THE POPS IN THE WEST.
THE INHERITED HIGH POPS ALONG THE RED RIVER TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOTH SCENARIOS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPDATE...SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
THE SKY AND WIND TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. ALSO...ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA AND A FEW DEGREES ELSEWHERE.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH AND RESULT IN THE SOME SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL SINCE THEY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER THIS MORNING AND RETREAT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE A SOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...
DOWNBURST WINDS AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES AS SURFACE WINDS
BACK WITH THE RETREATING BOUNDARY. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...BUT THE THREAT AREA WILL ALL HINGE ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETREATS.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO FORM IN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A
COLD FRONT TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH STORM CHANCES
SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP NORTH TEXAS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THE FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT TO REACH THE
NORTHWEST ZONES SATURDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP SATURDAY POPS AT
10 PERCENT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  83  73  84  61  84 /  30  40  30  10  10
WACO, TX              93  73  86  62  86 /  20  20  30  20   5
PARIS, TX             82  69  82  56  79 /  20  70  40  10  10
DENTON, TX            80  72  83  59  82 /  30  40  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  71  84  57  80 /  30  50  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            83  73  84  61  82 /  30  40  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  72  85  59  80 /  30  50  30  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         91  72  86  62  81 /  30  30  30  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            93  72  86  63  87 /  20  20  30  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     90  70  84  56  83 /  20  40  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-311230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
1254 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL TO OVER 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST AND WEST
OF THE AREA ALONG A DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
RED RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING THROUGH PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1035 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ119-301600-
DALLAS TX-
1035 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY

AT 1035 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF COCKRELL HILL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BALCH SPRINGS...COCKRELL
HILL...DALLAS...HUTCHINS...LANCASTER AND WILMER.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3274 9656 3254 9667 3255 9669 3271 9704
      3273 9704 3288 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 296DEG 19KT 3276 9690

85/NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     HAIL             1 S KRUGERVILLE         33.27N  96.99W
05/30/2012  E1.00 INCH       DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES AT
            THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 377 AND INDUSTRIAL PARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ092-301645-
COOKE TX-
1117 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN COOKE COUNTY

AT 1117 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GAINESVILLE...LINDSAY AND
VALLEY VIEW.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3363 9706 3343 9705 3342 9727 3343 9735
      3360 9747 3371 9725
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 329DEG 17KT 3359 9732

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ119>121-301745-
DALLAS TX-KAUFMAN TX-ROCKWALL TX-
1221 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  WESTERN KAUFMAN COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ROCKWALL COUNTY

AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DALLAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BALCH SPRINGS...COMBINE...
CRANDALL...DALLAS...FORNEY...GARLAND...HEATH...HIGHLAND PARK...
MESQUITE...RICHARDSON...ROCKWALL...ROWLETT...SEAGOVILLE...SUNNYVALE
AND UNIVERSITY PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3291 9632 3245 9639 3278 9689 3299 9679
      3299 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 313DEG 25KT 3282 9667

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ103-104-301815-
DENTON TX-COLLIN TX-
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL DENTON COUNTY

AT 1244 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE LEWISVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALLEN...CROSS ROADS...
FRISCO...HACKBERRY...KRUGERVILLE...LITTLE ELM...PARKER...PLANO...
SHADY SHORES...THE COLONY AND LAKE LEWISVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3309 9656 3298 9665 3300 9683 3303 9685
      3320 9712 3332 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 313DEG 23KT 3314 9689

85/NH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
121 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ103-104-301845-
DENTON TX-COLLIN TX-
121 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COLLIN COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY

AT 121 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COLONY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HACKBERRY...HEBRON...
LEWISVILLE...MURPHY...PARKER...PLANO...THE COLONY AND LAKE
LEWISVILLE.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3315 9688 3302 9653 3298 9658 3299 9697
      3300 9702 3305 9705 3316 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 300DEG 20KT 3307 9689