Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Fort Worth, TX

866 
WWUS54 KFWD 300618
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXC147-181-300627-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0145.000000T0000Z-120530T0645Z/
FANNIN TX-GRAYSON TX-
118 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRAYSON AND FANNIN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

AT 117 AM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  WINDS BEHIND 
THE OUTFLOW HAVE DIMINISHED PER AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVATION 
STATIONS.  A NEW WARNING MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR STORMS MOVING 
TOWARDS GRAYSON COUNTY FROM LOVE COUNTY OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3391 9689 3386 9686 3388 9681 3383 9676
      3384 9672 3374 9651 3377 9641 3370 9636
      3371 9632 3377 9629 3376 9619 3384 9615
      3387 9595 3340 9596 3334 9638 3340 9639
      3342 9694 3394 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 353DEG 27KT 3350 9683 3343 9647
          3353 9612

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CONVECTION LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING.

GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT...
STRONG WINDS FROM DISSIPATING STORMS WILL CONTINUE SUBSIDING...
WILL LIKELY NOT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN INITIAL GROUPS OF 06Z TAFS.

CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING...
ALTHOUGH EVENING CONVECTION NEAR TAF SITES HAS DISSIPATED...
ACTIVITY IN OKLAHOMA IS ORGANIZING INTO AN MCS. TIME OF ARRIVAL
STILL IN REMARKABLY GOOD SHAPE...10Z (5 AM CDT) OR THEREAFTER.
WIDESPREAD DOWNBURST HAS REDUCED THE BUOYANCY OF THE SURFACE
LAYER...BUT MCS MAY BE UNABLE TO INGEST SURFACE PARCELS ANYWAY.
EXPECT INTENSITY TO WANE AS THE MCS CROSSES THE RED RIVER...BUT
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD PERSIST.

WEDNESDAY...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 15KTS MUCH OF THE DAY.

WACO...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THE MCS WILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER DAYBREAK. STRONGER WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY. STRATUS INTRUSION WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE AS EARLY AS
06Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED...
AN MVFR STRATUS INTRUSION IS LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED INTO EXTENDED PORTION OF TAFDFW.

25

&&

.UPDATE...

ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE DFW METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING
AREAS DUE TO HIGH WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM ORPHANED ANVIL CLOUDS DRAGS STRONG WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DALLAS LOVE FIELD RECORDED A 58 MPH WIND GUST
EARLIER AND REPORTS OF LIGHT WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM
PARKER COUNTY EAST THROUGH DALLAS COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT THE WINDS
TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS AS THEIR STRENGTH SEEMS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MAINTENANCE OF THE ANVIL LEVEL
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS NO LONGER BEING FED HYDROMETEORS FROM A
PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE DOWNWIND PROPAGATING MCS THAT HAS
ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
ACTIVITY FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ENHANCEMENT OF
THE ANVIL PRECIPITATION IN TRANSPORTING HIGH MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE INDICATES THAT A STABLE LAYER DOMINATES THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE OVER NORTH TEXAS. ASSUMING THIS IS VALID...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THAT THIS LARGELY SURFACE BASED MCS WILL STRUGGLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF ONCE IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER. IT IS BECOMING A
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS TO LACK STRONG
MESOSCALE PRESSURE FEATURES THAT WOULD TEND TO DYNAMICALLY SUSTAIN
THIS SYSTEM IN SPITE OF THE SOMEWHAT INHIBITIVE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
BASED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. DO NOT THINK THAT THEY WILL
TOTALLY DISSIPATE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...BUT THINK THAT THEY
WILL STRUGGLE TO CONTAIN THEIR OUTFLOW AS THE CROSS THE RED RIVER
MAKING SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND
ISSUE WARNINGS FOR WIND AND HAIL AS NECESSARY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS JUST WEST OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS NOT QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS YESTERDAY DUE IN
PART TO INCREASED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. NONETHELESS...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. SB CAPE HAS
ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE 2500 J/KG PER THE LATEST ANALYSES AND SHOULD
TOP OUT OVER 3000 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THIS COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THESE STORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WOULD OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT IF A MCS DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...THEN HOLDS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE LIKELY PATH OF
PROPAGATION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE
THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX WEAKENS TOMORROW MORNING.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MONTANA INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
FINALLY COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT WHILE....WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  93  71  85  60 /  30  20  30  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  73  87  63 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             71  90  69  81  57 /  40  30  50  40  20
DENTON, TX            70  92  70  84  58 /  30  20  40  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  91  70  83  58 /  30  20  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            72  92  71  85  60 /  30  20  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           71  92  70  85  60 /  30  20  30  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  92  72  87  62 /  20  10  30  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  91  72  88  64 /  10  10  10  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  93  69  84  58 /  30  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ101>105-
117>123-134.

&&

25/69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ091-092-102-300145-
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-COOKE TX-
810 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTY
  MONTAGUE COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF NOCONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH. THE WIND APPEARS TO BECOMING FROM AN AREA OF DOWNBURST ACTIVITY
THAT IS ALSO INITIATING NEW CONVECTION ON ITS LEADING EDGE.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...MUENSTER...NOCONA...
ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3352 9720 3343 9735 3343 9738 3341 9738
      3329 9758 3363 9799 3388 9798 3389 9794
      3386 9786 3387 9783 3392 9779 3394 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 315DEG 40KT 3363 9770

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
837 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ102-103-300200-
DENTON TX-WISE TX-
837 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  EASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 837 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENTON...JUSTIN...KRUM AND
SANGER.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3343 9727 3330 9703 3300 9740 3343 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 309DEG 25KT 3341 9744

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
936 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     HAIL             5 S SLIDELL             33.30N  97.40W
05/29/2012  E0.75 INCH       WISE               TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            55 MPH WINDS REPORTED AS WELL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     TSTM WND GST     DALLAS                  32.77N  96.78W
05/29/2012  M58 MPH          DALLAS             TX   ASOS

            MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH AT LOVE FIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1115 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N SIPRINGTOWN         32.98N  97.68W
05/29/2012                   PARKER             TX   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF OF A HOUSE. ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS.