Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Fort Worth, TX

693 
WWUS54 KFWD 300220
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
920 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXC503-300300-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-120530T0300Z/
YOUNG TX-
920 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 918 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OLNEY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. BASEBALL SIZED HAIL WAS 
REPORTED AT LAKE KICKAPOO IN ARCHER COUNTY. THE STRONGEST PART OF 
THE HAIL CORE WILL REACH THE YOUNG COUNTY LINE AT ABOUT 930. AT THIS 
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF THE HAIL CORE WILL LIKELY PASS 
EAST OF OLNEY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OLNEY AROUND 935 PM CDT...
  NEWCASTLE AROUND 1000 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 3340 9884 3340 9842 3312 9843 3308 9886
      3309 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 346DEG 13KT 3344 9870

$$

811 
WWUS54 KFWD 300237
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
937 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXC503-300300-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-120530T0300Z/
YOUNG TX-
937 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 936 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
EAST OF OLNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STORM HAS SLOWED 
SLIGHTLY AND TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST TRACK. IT CONTINUES TO 
HAVE A RADAR SIGNATURE INDICATIVE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL NORTHERN YOUNG COUNTY AT 950 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3340 9881 3340 9842 3312 9843 3309 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 336DEG 13KT 3338 9861

$$

028 
WWUS54 KFWD 300255
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXC503-300300-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0143.000000T0000Z-120530T0300Z/
YOUNG TX-
955 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY...

AT 955 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
EAST OF OLNEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9881 3340 9842 3312 9843 3309 9879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 332DEG 14KT 3338 9863

$$


CAVANAUGH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.

CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...BUT
INITIAL 00Z RAOB DATA FROM FWD SHOWS A SMALL BUT EFFECTIVE CAP
REMAINING ABOVE THE FLAT CU...GENERALLY 8-10KFT AGL. WITH NO FOCUS
FOR INITIATION...ANY CONVECTION IN THE SHORT TERM WOULD HAVE TO
ORIGINATE UPSTREAM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR A DRYLINE IN SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE GUIDED THE
STORMS EAST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERNMOST STORM HAS
BEGUN TO TURN RIGHT TOWARD ITS INFLOW AND WILL SOON BE ENTERING
AN AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY. IF ANY CONVECTION IMPACTS
METROPLEX TAF SITES...IT WILL BE FROM SUCH STORMS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEASTWARD. BUT UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...THE UPPER SUPPORT IS
LACKING...AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (ALBEIT BENIGN) WILL BE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IF CONVECTION NOW IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS ABLE
TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE RED RIVER LATE
TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH MENTION IN THE 10-15Z (5-10AM CDT)
TIME FRAME...WHEN ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO INGEST MOIST PARCELS
FROM BENEATH THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. IF A WELL DEVELOPED COLD
POOL ACCOMPANIES THE MCS...THUNDER MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED. AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTION MATCHES THE PUBLIC
FORECAST POP OF 30 PERCENT.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/
A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE DRYLINE EXTENDS
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE DRYLINE HAS BEGUN TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS JUST WEST OF NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS NOT QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS YESTERDAY DUE IN
PART TO INCREASED HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO. NONETHELESS...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
RECOVERED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. SB CAPE HAS
ALREADY CLIMBED ABOVE 2500 J/KG PER THE LATEST ANALYSES AND SHOULD
TOP OUT OVER 3000 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. THIS COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND FAIRLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY
OF THESE STORMS BECOMING ORGANIZED AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WOULD OCCUR
LATE TONIGHT IF A MCS DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH...THEN HOLDS TOGETHER
AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE LIKELY PATH OF
PROPAGATION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE
THE POTENTIAL COMPLEX WEAKENS TOMORROW MORNING.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM MONTANA INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
SHOULD GIVE THE FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TOMORROW AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
FINALLY COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A SHORT WHILE....WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  93  71  85  60 /  30  20  30  30  20
WACO, TX              73  92  73  87  63 /  10  10  20  30  20
PARIS, TX             71  90  69  81  57 /  40  30  50  40  20
DENTON, TX            70  92  70  84  58 /  30  20  40  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  91  70  83  58 /  30  20  40  30  20
DALLAS, TX            72  92  71  85  60 /  30  20  30  30  20
TERRELL, TX           71  92  70  85  60 /  30  20  30  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         71  92  72  87  62 /  20  10  30  30  20
TEMPLE, TX            71  91  72  88  64 /  10  10  10  30  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  93  69  84  58 /  30  20  30  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/69

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF A COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME MAY
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF OKLAHOMA. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF A
COMANCHE TO ATHENS LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
810 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ091-092-102-300145-
MONTAGUE TX-WISE TX-COOKE TX-
810 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTY
  MONTAGUE COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF NOCONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH. THE WIND APPEARS TO BECOMING FROM AN AREA OF DOWNBURST ACTIVITY
THAT IS ALSO INITIATING NEW CONVECTION ON ITS LEADING EDGE.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...MUENSTER...NOCONA...
ST. JO...FORESTBURG AND STONEBURG.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3352 9720 3343 9735 3343 9738 3341 9738
      3329 9758 3363 9799 3388 9798 3389 9794
      3386 9786 3387 9783 3392 9779 3394 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 315DEG 40KT 3363 9770

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
837 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TXZ102-103-300200-
DENTON TX-WISE TX-
837 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
  EASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 837 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENTON...JUSTIN...KRUM AND
SANGER.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3343 9727 3330 9703 3300 9740 3343 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 309DEG 25KT 3341 9744