Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
553 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...
TIMING OF TSRA AND VARIABLE WINDS GUSTS/VSBYS WITH PASSAGE OF
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT THROUGH 06Z...THEN TRENDS OF CIGS AND VEERING
WINDS BEHIND THIS FEATURE.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL EXCEPT UNDERNEATH TSRA...
WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR PD
RIGHT UNDER A STORM CORE...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SUCH A
TIME RIGHT NOW. WE HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF COLD FRONT/TROUGH
PASSAGE NOW THAT UPPER JET IS ROUNDING UP THE UPPER LOW OVER
KS/CO. WILL TREND WESTERN METRO TERMINALS FROM SOUTH FLOW 10-15 KTS
TO WEST FLOW AROUND 10 KTS BY 03Z...WITH AN HOUR OR SO DELAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN METRO AIRPORTS.

COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH FROPA. WITH SOME ELEVATED FORCING AROUND...WILL CONTINUE VCSH
WORDING WITH CB UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z. WE WILL FINE TUNE TRENDS IN
LATER FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012/
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE DRY LINE. A FEW SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CATCH
UP TO THE DRY LINE DURING THE EVENING AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE
LINEAR WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF DOWNBURSTS. THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL MOVE STEADILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
A FEW STORMS MY LINGER IN THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP AND LOW TEMPERATURE TO COOL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE.

EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO MEXICO DAYS 6 AND 7.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AT
THIS POINT SO HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

HOWIESON/79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  48  57  36  51  34 /  60  10  10  10  10
WACO, TX              50  61  38  52  33 /  70  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             49  59  34  52  32 /  80  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            46  58  35  48  30 /  60  10  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          47  58  37  50  31 /  70  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            48  57  36  50  36 /  70  10  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           49  60  36  51  33 /  80  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         51  62  38  52  35 /  80  20  10  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            50  59  38  49  32 /  60  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     42  58  32  51  30 /  50  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

05/79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-041230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
311 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM DENISON TO WEATHERFORD TO BRECKENRIDGE. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A DRY LINE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF A BONHAM...TO HILLSBORO TO LAMPASAS LINE. A FEW STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
709 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             SOUTHMAYD               33.62N  96.72W
02/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             DENISON                 33.75N  96.55W
02/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
712 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             3 W KRUM                33.27N  97.30W
02/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             2 SE POTTSBORO          33.73N  96.65W
02/03/2012  E2.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CHICKEN EGG SIZED HAIL 1/2 MILE SE OF NORTH TX REGIONAL
            AIRPORT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
721 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             3 E DENISON             33.75N  96.50W
02/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTERS COVERING GROUND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
721 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXZ174-040145-
MILAM TX-
721 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL MILAM COUNTY

AT 721 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAMERON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3079 9693 3093 9676 3092 9673 3090 9672
      3091 9668 3089 9670 3088 9668 3087 9670
      3082 9664 3078 9665 3076 9661 3069 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 247DEG 13KT 3079 9681

HUFFMAN