Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE WEAKENED EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVELS DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT MAIN
EFFECTS FROM THIS FEATURE REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL...CONVECTION. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEAK SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LIMITED TO ISOLATED. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

20

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHUNT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL INDICATE A
POP DISTRIBUTION FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR BEST CHANCES. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKS END AND THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES EVEN NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER BELT OF
SHORTWAVES AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR ALL AREAS SHOULD CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS
VERIFY.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FEEL MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WARRANT A LOWERING OF TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TAKE THE ADVERTISED UPPER 90S OF THE MEX AND KNOCK THEM
BACK TO THE MID 90S.
/17
DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT TO BE IMPACTED
WOULD BE KAHN AND KMCN. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED THROUGH 01Z WHEN COVERAGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  96  73  96 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  91  68  91 /  30  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  96 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  96  75  94 /  30  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     74  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           74  97  72  96 /  30  30  30  50
ROME            69  96  70  97 /  30  30  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  95  69  93 /  30  30  30  50
VIDALIA         75  96  75  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. CONTINUED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
654 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKEWOOD PARK           33.70N 84.39W
07/03/2012                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FULTON COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF POWERLINES DOWN IN
            THE LAKEWOOD PARK AREA.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
702 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ097-109>111-032330-
702 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 35 MPH WINDS IN WHEELER...
TELFAIR...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 701 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK THE THUNDERSTORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHEELER...TELFAIR...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HELENA...JAY BIRD
SPRINGS...ACHORD...CEDAR GROVE...MCRAE...LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE
PARK...LANDSBURG...GLENWOOD...ALAMO AND SCOTLAND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8305 3223 8299 3234 8281 3220 8263
      3219 8263 3197 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 277DEG 1KT 3213 8290

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ013-021-032345-
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN PICKENS AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALMADGE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PICKENS AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SALACOA VALLEY...TALMADGE...HINTON...
REAVIS MOUNTAIN...NELSON...MARBLEHILL...TATE AND JASPER. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8432 3447 8432 3447 8426 3434 8426
      3437 8428 3436 8460 3448 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 274DEG 5KT 3440 8453

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ106-032345-
713 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN CRISP COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 710 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RAINES...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CRISP COUNTY THROUGH 745 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE RAINES...CORDELE...WENONA...EAST CRISP...HATLEY AND
ARABI. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 8388 3183 8390 3184 8391 3198 8390
      3199 8361 3181 8361 3180 8362 3180 8378
      3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 274DEG 5KT 3188 8380

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ108>111-040000-
727 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN WILCOX...
WHEELER...TELFAIR AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HELENA TO
TEMPERANCE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS WILCOX...WHEELER...TELFAIR AND DODGE
COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE MILAN...RHINE...BROWNING...FIVE POINTS...
TEMPERANCE...GODWINSVILLE...LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK...SPRING
HILL...JORDAN...HORSE CREEK WMA...WORKMORE...TOWNS...CHINA
HILL...HELENA AND MCRAE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3180 8314 3184 8318 3185 8337 3206 8327
      3217 8315 3209 8280 3209 8270 3196 8256
      3192 8261 3192 8267 3185 8275 3185 8277
      3182 8281 3178 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 270DEG 5KT 3201 8296 3206 8317
          3187 8317

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ104-106-040000-
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 35 MPH WINDS IN SUMTER AND CRISP
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 726 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COBB...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
SUMTER AND CRISP COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAMAR...HUNTINGTON...LESLIE...DESOTO...
COBB...FORT EARLY AND GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL STATE PARK. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8395 3191 8394 3191 8417 3205 8417
      3205 8397 3203 8396 3203 8388 3184 8391
      3184 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 274DEG 5KT 3194 8400