Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE WEAKENED EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVELS DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT MAIN
EFFECTS FROM THIS FEATURE REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL...CONVECTION. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEAK SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LIMITED TO ISOLATED. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

20

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHUNT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL INDICATE A
POP DISTRIBUTION FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR BEST CHANCES. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKS END AND THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES EVEN NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER BELT OF
SHORTWAVES AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR ALL AREAS SHOULD CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS
VERIFY.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FEEL MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WARRANT A LOWERING OF TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TAKE THE ADVERTISED UPPER 90S OF THE MEX AND KNOCK THEM
BACK TO THE MID 90S.
/17
DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT TO BE IMPACTED
WOULD BE KAHN AND KMCN. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED THROUGH 01Z WHEN COVERAGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  96  73  96 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  91  68  91 /  30  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  96 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  96  75  94 /  30  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     74  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           74  97  72  96 /  30  30  30  50
ROME            69  96  70  97 /  30  30  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  95  69  93 /  30  30  30  50
VIDALIA         75  96  75  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. CONTINUED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ074-085-031930-
302 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WASHINGTON
AND JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 256 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PRINGLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WASHINGTON AND JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RIDDLEVILLE...DAVISBORO...
HARRISON...NEW HOME...DONOVAN...KITE...WRIGHTSVILLE AND PRINGLE.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 8245 3269 8250 3266 8249 3265 8251
      3272 8290 3302 8276 3300 8255 3295 8254
      3292 8251 3282 8252 3276 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 017DEG 5KT 3283 8259

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ059-060-031945-
309 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN PUTNAM AND JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SHADY DALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PUTNAM AND JASPER COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FARRAR...SHADY DALE...PIEDMONT...CENTRAL
GEORGIA EXPERIMENT STATION...WILLARD AND EATONTON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3322 8361 3346 8369 3349 8361 3343 8353
      3344 8352 3345 8344 3332 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 336DEG 3KT 3341 8355

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ052-053-031945-
312 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN COWETA AND HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 309 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM POWERS CROSSROADS TO WARESVILLE...MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS COWETA AND HEARD COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HANDY...FROLONA...ROOSTERVILLE...
PLANT WANSLEY...CENTRALHATCHEE...EPHESUS...POWERS CROSSROADS...
WARESVILLE...TEXAS...FRANKLIN...GLENN AND CORINTH. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3343 8525 3343 8502 3346 8498 3344 8496
      3344 8492 3333 8484 3322 8486 3322 8495
      3317 8508 3319 8510 3316 8513 3312 8524
      3342 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 359DEG 9KT 3334 8503 3323 8523

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ078-079-089>091-031945-
315 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN TALBOT...MUSCOGEE...MARION...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 314 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BOX SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TALBOT...MUSCOGEE...MARION...CHATTAHOOCHEE AND HARRIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
OLIVE BRANCH...BAUGHVILLE...GENEVA...JUNIPER...EELBECK/WEST FORT
BENNING...UPATOI...MIDLAND AND BOX SPRINGS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 8482 3266 8469 3270 8463 3256 8449
      3239 8469 3256 8486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 049DEG 5KT 3257 8464

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ050-061-031945-
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN GREENE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER VEAZEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GREENE AND HANCOCK COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE VEAZEY...SILOAM...REYNOLDS PLANTATION...
SPRINGFIELD...SHOULDERBONE...LIBERTY AND WHITE PLAINS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8316 3330 8317 3331 8315 3334 8314
      3339 8319 3339 8320 3352 8327 3361 8308
      3350 8298 3347 8301 3345 8299 3344 8293
      3340 8290
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 332DEG 3KT 3349 8312

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ025-035>037-031945-
319 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN OCONEE...BARROW...CLARKE AND JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTGATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
OCONEE...BARROW...CLARKE AND JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTER...JAMES
HOLLAND YOUTH SPORTS COMPLEX...SANDY CREEK RECREATION AREA...BARRETTS
MILL...ARCADE...WESTGATE PARK...OCONEE HEIGHTS...ATHENS...BEAR CREEK
RESERVOIR...BEECHWOOD HILLS...STATE BOTANICAL GARDEN OF GEORGIA...
EASTVILLE...BOGART...WATKINSVILLE AND STATHAM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 8349 3406 8338 3404 8338 3404 8335
      3395 8335 3385 8339 3393 8365 3409 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 019DEG 6KT 3401 8348