Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
209 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE WEAKENED EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVELS DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT MAIN
EFFECTS FROM THIS FEATURE REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL...CONVECTION. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEAK SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LIMITED TO ISOLATED. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

20

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHUNT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL INDICATE A
POP DISTRIBUTION FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR BEST CHANCES. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKS END AND THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES EVEN NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER BELT OF
SHORTWAVES AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR ALL AREAS SHOULD CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS
VERIFY.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FEEL MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WARRANT A LOWERING OF TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TAKE THE ADVERTISED UPPER 90S OF THE MEX AND KNOCK THEM
BACK TO THE MID 90S.
/17
DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z...BUT ONLY TAF SITES I EXPECT TO BE IMPACTED
WOULD BE KAHN AND KMCN. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING AND
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED THROUGH 01Z WHEN COVERAGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED AT BEST THROUGH 18Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  96  73  96 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  91  68  91 /  30  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  96 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  96  75  94 /  30  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     74  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           74  97  72  96 /  30  30  30  50
ROME            69  96  70  97 /  30  30  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  95  69  93 /  30  30  30  50
VIDALIA         75  96  75  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. CONTINUED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ043-044-032115-
449 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER FAIRPLAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
DOUGLAS AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BILL ARP...WINSTON...FAIRPLAY...HANNAH...
CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY AND PALMETTO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3374 8490 3376 8482 3353 8456 3350 8461
      3351 8482 3355 8483 3358 8482 3358 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 321DEG 15KT 3363 8483

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
454 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ091-103-032130-
454 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WEBSTER AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CHURCH HILL...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WEBSTER AND MARION COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SEMINOLE...DRANEVILLE...PUTNAM...CHURCH
HILL...LEVERETTS...KIMBROUGH...DUMAS...CENTERPOINT...WESTON AND
PRESTON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8465 3215 8464 3216 8465 3218 8463
      3219 8464 3225 8466 3227 8441 3223 8441
      3223 8443 3218 8442 3199 8445 3193 8444
      3191 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 355DEG 10KT 3217 8457

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ016-032130-
455 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN WHITE COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITE COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE QUALATCHEE LAKE...SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION AREA...
ROBERTSTOWN...HELEN...SAUTEE...CLEVELAND...LEAF AND MOSSY CREEK.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8365 3465 8365 3463 8363 3460 8364
      3454 8361 3450 8366 3450 8377 3452 8378
      3450 8380 3456 8386 3465 8387 3475 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 308DEG 8KT 3462 8377

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ086-032130-
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TWIN CITY THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK...CANOOCHEE...TWIN CITY...
STILLMORE AND SWAINSBORO. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8204 3255 8208 3251 8215 3248 8217
      3243 8218 3241 8220 3259 8238 3270 8215
      3256 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 050DEG 0KT 3258 8217

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
522 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ044-054-032200-
522 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN FAYETTE AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 519 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SANDY CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
FAYETTE AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE UNION CITY...FAIRBURN...SANDY CREEK...
TYRONE...KENWOOD...FAYETTEVILLE...PEACHTREE CITY...LAKE HORTON...
INMAN...WOOLSEY...BROOKS AND STARRS MILL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8452 3354 8444 3350 8442 3347 8438
      3342 8440 3332 8438 3325 8444 3326 8450
      3333 8452 3336 8459 3344 8463 3350 8461
      3351 8465 3356 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 334DEG 14KT 3351 8458

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
524 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ072-082>084-095>097-032200-
524 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN TWIGGS...
LAURENS...JONES...WILKINSON...BIBB...BLECKLEY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
ARKWRIGHT TO REBIE...MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS TWIGGS...LAURENS...JONES...WILKINSON...BIBB...BLECKLEY AND
HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE MONTROSE...DUDLEY...DEXTER...REBIE...
ALLENTOWN... DISTRICT PATH...RIPLEY...MYRICKS MILL...FITZPATRICK...
HUBER...DRY BRANCH...DANVILLE...JEFFERSONVILLE...FRANKLINTON AND
CROSS KEYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 8311 3242 8313 3245 8317 3239 8324
      3244 8343 3260 8372 3265 8372 3269 8370
      3275 8383 3285 8388 3295 8371 3298 8372
      3297 8358 3256 8295 3235 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 090DEG 25KT 3293 8371 3264 8351
          3245 8318