Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1013 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE CWA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. EXPECTING NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW GA
BETWEEN 16-17Z. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 21Z TODAY. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO EDITED SKY AND WX GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN POPS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

31

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 403 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE
MEMPHIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THROUGH ALABAMA AND SHOULD
BE NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NO SEVERE STORMS AS OF
YET. A FEW REPORTS OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ACROSS AL BUT THAT HAS
BEEN IT SO FAR. THIS IS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA BY 18Z. AS IT MOVES THROUGH IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONT BUT THEY ARE SHOWING THE
CAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCAPES EXPECTED AROUND 300 J/KG WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR PEAKING AROUND 60KT BETWEEN 12-18Z. LIFTED
INDICES ARE STRONGEST RIGHT AT 12Z ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER WITH
READINGS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A
SECOND...MUCH DRIER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE THU
AND THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE COLDER AIRMASS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THU/FRI.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 403 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY AND CHILLY TREND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE ALMOST 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOOKS LIKE THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO NW GA TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 7 INTO THE
SLIGHT/CHANCE RANGE.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 655 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THOUGH MID MORNING....BEFORE IMPROVING
INTO THE MVFR-LOW VFR RANGE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE
AFTER SUNSET. VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IMPROVING TO 6 PLUS BY LATE
MORNING AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE MORNING AS FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  59  27  45 /  10  10  10   5
ATLANTA         43  54  26  43 /  10  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  50  24  37 /  20  20  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    43  53  25  42 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        44  60  29  50 /   0   5  10   5
GAINESVILLE     42  54  26  41 /  20  10  10   5
MACON           42  63  29  50 /   0   5  10   5
ROME            44  52  24  43 /  20  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  40  57  24  46 /  10   5  10   5
VIDALIA         46  68  34  52 /   0   5  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/49/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
509 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
509 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 1PM.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 300 WITH LIFTED INDICES
EXPECTED IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE BY 10AM. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND SHEAR
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             2 S WILLIAMSON          33.15N 84.36W
01/11/2012  E0.75 INCH       PIKE               GA   PUBLIC

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ062-074>076-085-097-111530-
945 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WASHINGTON...
WARREN...LAURENS...JOHNSON...GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 AM EST...

AT 945 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON...WARREN...LAURENS...JOHNSON...GLASCOCK
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8228 3293 8227 3285 8230 3281 8237
      3281 8241 3278 8240 3276 8243 3274 8245
      3258 8267 3269 8285 3334 8245 3332 8240
      3331 8232 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 219DEG 49KT 3272 8268

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1028 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ002>004-111600-
1028 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WHITFIELD...
WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EST...

AT 1025 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
MODERATE THUNDERSTORM OVER SUTTLES MILL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS
IT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF WHITFIELD...WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1100 AM EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8512 3459 8532 3499 8528 3499 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 193DEG 36KT 3464 8521

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1100 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ011-012-019-111630-
1100 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN CHATTOOGA...
FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM EST...

AT 1058 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROME...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF CHATTOOGA...FLOYD AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 1130
AM EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8511 3459 8498 3450 8493 3439 8497
      3440 8498 3439 8498 3439 8501 3435 8501
      3432 8503 3422 8502 3421 8505 3416 8504
      3422 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1600Z 204DEG 27KT 3428 8513

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1113 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ003-004-111645-
1113 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WHITFIELD AND
CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 AM EST...

AT 1112 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TUNNEL HILL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM EST.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE MILL CREEK...ROCKY
FACE...TUNNEL HILL...WOOD STATION...RINGGOLD...VARNELL...SALEM AND
COHUTTA.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8482 3472 8502 3478 8517 3499 8513
      3499 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 199DEG 21KT 3483 8509

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1131 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ002-011-019-111700-
1131 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WALKER...
CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL NOON EST...

AT 1130 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF WALKER...CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH NOON
EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8534 3471 8513 3463 8505 3459 8506
      3459 8507 3455 8506 3454 8509 3449 8509
      3427 8523 3440 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 206DEG 41KT 3445 8529