Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
655 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE
MEMPHIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THROUGH ALABAMA AND SHOULD
BE NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NO SEVERE STORMS AS OF
YET. A FEW REPORTS OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ACROSS AL BUT THAT HAS
BEEN IT SO FAR. THIS IS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA BY 18Z. AS IT MOVES THROUGH IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONT BUT THEY ARE SHOWING THE
CAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCAPES EXPECTED AROUND 300 J/KG WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR PEAKING AROUND 60KT BETWEEN 12-18Z. LIFTED
INDICES ARE STRONGEST RIGHT AT 12Z ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER WITH
READINGS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A
SECOND...MUCH DRIER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE THU
AND THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE COLDER AIRMASS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THU/FRI.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY AND CHILLY TREND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE ALMOST 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOOKS LIKE THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO NW GA TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 7 INTO THE
SLIGHT/CHANCE RANGE.

01
&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THOUGH MID MORNING....BEFORE IMPROVING
INTO THE MVFR-LOW VFR RANGE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE
AFTER SUNSET. VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IMPROVING TO 6 PLUS BY LATE
MORNING AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE MORNING AS FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  41  59  27 / 100  10  10  10
ATLANTA         58  43  54  26 /  80  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     57  42  50  24 / 100  20  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    60  43  53  25 /  80  10  10  10
COLUMBUS        61  44  60  29 /  50   0   5  10
GAINESVILLE     57  42  54  26 / 100  20  10  10
MACON           64  42  63  29 /  90   0   5  10
ROME            62  44  52  24 /  80  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  58  40  57  24 /  80  10   5  10
VIDALIA         67  46  68  34 / 100   0   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
509 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
509 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 1PM.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 300 WITH LIFTED INDICES
EXPECTED IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE BY 10AM. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND SHEAR
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
527 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ044-054-111100-
527 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM EST...

AT 524 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TYRONE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PEA SIZE ARE LIKELY AS THIS
STORM MOVES ACROSS FAYETTE AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 AM EST.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE TYRONE...
PALMETTO...SANDY CREEK...UNION CITY...FAIRBURN AND COLLEGE PARK.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 8464 3366 8442 3365 8442 3364 8446
      3359 8446 3336 8458 3340 8462 3344 8463
      3348 8463 3350 8461 3351 8474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 203DEG 45KT 3346 8465

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ033-044-045-111115-
545 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN NORTHWESTERN DEKALB AND CENTRAL FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
EST...

AT 542 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR EAST POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN DEKALB AND CENTRAL FULTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE LAKEWOOD PARK...HAPEVILLE...EAST POINT...CASCADE
HEIGHTS...EDGEWOOD...DRUID HILLS...VIRGINIA HIGHLAND...SWEET
AUBURN...ATLANTIC STATION...PIEDMONT PARK...GRANT PARK...TURNER
FIELD AND MIDTOWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8457 3383 8445 3385 8446 3388 8444
      3391 8445 3398 8437 3401 8440 3396 8427
      3392 8426 3390 8423 3366 8440 3369 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 207DEG 56KT 3372 8449

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
653 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ056-057-068-111230-
653 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...PIKE AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

AT 651 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF MOLENA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS SPALDING...PIKE AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH
730 AM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
HILLTOP...CONCORD...ZEBULON...WILLIAMSON...EXPERIMENT...
HIGHLAND MILLS...GRIFFIN...TOWALAGA...SUNNY SIDE...LUELLA AND
HAMPTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8427 3339 8410 3299 8440 3304 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1153Z 210DEG 52KT 3306 8442

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ046-048-057-111245-
711 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN ROCKDALE...NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM EST...

AT 705 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS ROCKDALE...NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH
745 AM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE LOCUST
GROVE...MCDONOUGH...KELLEYTOWN...OAK HILL...PORTERDALE...
OXFORD...COVINGTON...MILSTEAD AND CONYERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8402 3364 8380 3330 8409 3330 8411
      3330 8413 3332 8415 3339 8410 3343 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 208DEG 59KT 3337 8413

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             2 S WILLIAMSON          33.15N 84.36W
01/11/2012  E0.75 INCH       PIKE               GA   PUBLIC

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ062-074>076-085-097-111530-
945 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WASHINGTON...
WARREN...LAURENS...JOHNSON...GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 AM EST...

AT 945 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON...WARREN...LAURENS...JOHNSON...GLASCOCK
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8228 3293 8227 3285 8230 3281 8237
      3281 8241 3278 8240 3276 8243 3274 8245
      3258 8267 3269 8285 3334 8245 3332 8240
      3331 8232 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 219DEG 49KT 3272 8268