Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1013 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE CWA AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TODAY. EXPECTING NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NW GA
BETWEEN 16-17Z. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY 21Z TODAY. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. HAVE ALSO EDITED SKY AND WX GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN POPS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE
HOURLY WEATHER GRIDS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

31

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 403 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE
MEMPHIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING THROUGH ALABAMA AND SHOULD
BE NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER BY 12Z. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT NO SEVERE STORMS AS OF
YET. A FEW REPORTS OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ACROSS AL BUT THAT HAS
BEEN IT SO FAR. THIS IS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR CWA BY 18Z. AS IT MOVES THROUGH IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY BOWING SECTIONS OF THE LINE. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA WITH THE FRONT BUT THEY ARE SHOWING THE
CAPE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCAPES EXPECTED AROUND 300 J/KG WITH
0-6KM BULK SHEAR PEAKING AROUND 60KT BETWEEN 12-18Z. LIFTED
INDICES ARE STRONGEST RIGHT AT 12Z ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER WITH
READINGS IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE. COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A
SECOND...MUCH DRIER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE THU
AND THIS IS THE FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THE COLDER AIRMASS.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS THU/FRI.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 403 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY AND CHILLY TREND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE ON AVERAGE ALMOST 10-15 DEG COOLER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LOOKS LIKE THESE DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MON AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO NW GA TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR DAY 7 INTO THE
SLIGHT/CHANCE RANGE.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 655 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012/
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DOMINATE THOUGH MID MORNING....BEFORE IMPROVING
INTO THE MVFR-LOW VFR RANGE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER AGAIN BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE
AFTER SUNSET. VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING IN
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IMPROVING TO 6 PLUS BY LATE
MORNING AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
EARLY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY LATE MORNING AS FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 23 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

49

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          41  59  27  45 /  10  10  10   5
ATLANTA         43  54  26  43 /  10  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     42  50  24  37 /  20  20  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    43  53  25  42 /  10  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        44  60  29  50 /   0   5  10   5
GAINESVILLE     42  54  26  41 /  20  10  10   5
MACON           42  63  29  50 /   0   5  10   5
ROME            44  52  24  43 /  20  20  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  40  57  24  46 /  10   5  10   5
VIDALIA         46  68  34  52 /   0   5  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/49/01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
509 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
509 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 1PM.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST THIS MORNING. CAPES EXPECTED AROUND 300 WITH LIFTED INDICES
EXPECTED IN THE 0 TO -2 RANGE BY 10AM. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND SHEAR
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ033-044-045-111115-
545 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN NORTHWESTERN DEKALB AND CENTRAL FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
EST...

AT 542 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR EAST POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN DEKALB AND CENTRAL FULTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 AM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM
INCLUDE LAKEWOOD PARK...HAPEVILLE...EAST POINT...CASCADE
HEIGHTS...EDGEWOOD...DRUID HILLS...VIRGINIA HIGHLAND...SWEET
AUBURN...ATLANTIC STATION...PIEDMONT PARK...GRANT PARK...TURNER
FIELD AND MIDTOWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8457 3383 8445 3385 8446 3388 8444
      3391 8445 3398 8437 3401 8440 3396 8427
      3392 8426 3390 8423 3366 8440 3369 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1044Z 207DEG 56KT 3372 8449

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
653 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ056-057-068-111230-
653 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN SPALDING...PIKE AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

AT 651 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF MOLENA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS SPALDING...PIKE AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH
730 AM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
HILLTOP...CONCORD...ZEBULON...WILLIAMSON...EXPERIMENT...
HIGHLAND MILLS...GRIFFIN...TOWALAGA...SUNNY SIDE...LUELLA AND
HAMPTON.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8427 3339 8410 3299 8440 3304 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1153Z 210DEG 52KT 3306 8442

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
711 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ046-048-057-111245-
711 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN ROCKDALE...NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM EST...

AT 705 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED NEAR LOCUST GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
60 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AS
THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS ROCKDALE...NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH
745 AM EST. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE LOCUST
GROVE...MCDONOUGH...KELLEYTOWN...OAK HILL...PORTERDALE...
OXFORD...COVINGTON...MILSTEAD AND CONYERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 8402 3364 8380 3330 8409 3330 8411
      3330 8413 3332 8415 3339 8410 3343 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1210Z 208DEG 59KT 3337 8413

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     HAIL             2 S WILLIAMSON          33.15N 84.36W
01/11/2012  E0.75 INCH       PIKE               GA   PUBLIC

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ062-074>076-085-097-111530-
945 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WASHINGTON...
WARREN...LAURENS...JOHNSON...GLASCOCK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 AM EST...

AT 945 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON...WARREN...LAURENS...JOHNSON...GLASCOCK
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3308 8228 3293 8227 3285 8230 3281 8237
      3281 8241 3278 8240 3276 8243 3274 8245
      3258 8267 3269 8285 3334 8245 3332 8240
      3331 8232 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 219DEG 49KT 3272 8268

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1028 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

GAZ002>004-111600-
1028 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN WHITFIELD...
WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EST...

AT 1025 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
MODERATE THUNDERSTORM OVER SUTTLES MILL...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS
IT MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF WHITFIELD...WALKER AND CATOOSA COUNTIES
THROUGH 1100 AM EST.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8512 3459 8532 3499 8528 3499 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 193DEG 36KT 3464 8521