Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Detroit, MI

March 15, 2012Monroe County, Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 15, 2012, 5:33 PM EDT for Monroe County, Michigan. It was in force for 87 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 15, 2012, 5:33 PM EDT (21:33 UTC)
Expired: Mar 15, 2012, 7:00 PM EDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: NWS Detroit, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Monroe County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 15, 6:25 PM EDT	HAIL 1	5 Sse Dundee, MI
Mar 15, 6:50 PM EDT	TORNADO	2 Sse Ida, MI	NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR IDA
Mar 15, 6:51 PM EDT	TORNADO	3 S Ida, MI	A TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED IN CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF0...WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 85 MPH. THE ESTIMATED PATH LENGTH OF THE TORNADO IS 0.5 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 50 YARDS. DAMAGE OCCURRED AT IDA CENTER ROAD JUST EAST OF LEWIS R
Mar 15, 6:57 PM EDT	HAIL 1	4 Wsw Monroe, MI
Mar 15, 7:09 PM EDT	HAIL 1	1 N Dundee, MI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 52 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 15, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2007 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 802 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

264 
WUUS53 KDTX 152133
SVRDTX
MIC115-152300-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0017.120315T2133Z-120315T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
533 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL
  SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF BRITTON
  TO OTTAWA LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  OTTAWA LAKE AND CONE AROUND 540 PM EDT.
  PETERSBURG AROUND 550 PM EDT.
  AZALIA AND DUNDEE AROUND 555 PM EDT.
  LAMBERTVILLE AROUND 605 PM EDT.
  SAMARIA AND TEMPERANCE AROUND 610 PM EDT.
  OAKVILLE AND IDA AROUND 615 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  TEMPERANCE...         PETERSBURG...         OTTAWA LAKE...
  MONROE...             MAYBEE...             LUNA PIER...
  LAMBERTVILLE...       IDA...                DUNDEE...
  CARLETON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A
SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8376 4209 8329 4207 8327 4202 8316
      4199 8318 4196 8325 4192 8326 4193 8331
      4189 8333 4186 8338 4180 8340 4179 8344
      4175 8342 4174 8342 4173 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 263DEG 14KT 4207 8379 4172 8378
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

SC

4 follow-up statements

982 
WWUS53 KDTX 152156
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
556 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC115-152300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120315T2300Z/
MONROE MI-
556 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILAN TO OTTAWA LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAMBERTVILLE AROUND 610 PM EDT.
  OAKVILLE AROUND 615 PM EDT.
  SAMARIA AND TEMPERANCE AROUND 620 PM EDT.
  MAYBEE AROUND 630 PM EDT.
  SCOFIELD AND ERIE AROUND 635 PM EDT.
  LA SALLE AROUND 640 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  TEMPERANCE...         PETERSBURG...         OTTAWA LAKE...
  MONROE...             MAYBEE...             LUNA PIER...
  LAMBERTVILLE...       IDA...                DUNDEE...
  CARLETON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8376 4209 8329 4207 8327 4202 8316
      4199 8318 4196 8325 4192 8326 4193 8331
      4189 8333 4186 8338 4180 8340 4179 8344
      4175 8342 4174 8342 4173 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 263DEG 14KT 4208 8367 4173 8369
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DRK

014 
WWUS53 KDTX 152213
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
613 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC115-152300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120315T2300Z/
MONROE MI-
613 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 612 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DUNDEE TO TEMPERANCE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  IDA AROUND 620 PM EDT.
  ERIE AROUND 625 PM EDT.
  LUNA PIER AROUND 630 PM EDT.
  MAYBEE AND TOLEDO BEACH AROUND 635 PM EDT.
  SCOFIELD AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  BOLLES HARBOR AND MONROE AROUND 645 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  TEMPERANCE...         PETERSBURG...         OTTAWA LAKE...
  MONROE...             MAYBEE...             LUNA PIER...
  LAMBERTVILLE...       IDA...                DUNDEE...
  CARLETON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8376 4209 8329 4207 8327 4202 8316
      4199 8318 4196 8325 4192 8326 4193 8331
      4189 8333 4186 8338 4180 8340 4179 8344
      4175 8342 4174 8342 4173 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 251DEG 19KT 4194 8363 4180 8358
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

KURIMSKI

652 
WWUS53 KDTX 152230
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
630 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC115-152300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120315T2300Z/
MONROE MI-
630 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 629 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MAYBEE TO IDA...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CARLETON AND ERIE AROUND 640 PM EDT.
  LUNA PIER AROUND 645 PM EDT.
  TOLEDO BEACH AND LA SALLE AROUND 650 PM EDT.
  BOLLES HARBOR AND MONROE AROUND 655 PM EDT.
  SOUTH ROCKWOOD AND ESTRAL BEACH AROUND 700 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  TEMPERANCE...         PETERSBURG...         OTTAWA LAKE...
  MONROE...             MAYBEE...             LUNA PIER...
  LAMBERTVILLE...       IDA...                DUNDEE...
  CARLETON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8376 4209 8329 4207 8327 4202 8316
      4199 8318 4196 8325 4192 8326 4193 8331
      4189 8333 4186 8338 4180 8340 4179 8344
      4175 8342 4174 8342 4173 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 251DEG 19KT 4200 8346 4185 8358
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

KURIMSKI

804 
WWUS53 KDTX 152242
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
642 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC115-152300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120315T2300Z/
MONROE MI-
642 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONROE COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MILAN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OAKVILLE AROUND 650 PM EDT.
  SCOFIELD AND MAYBEE AROUND 655 PM EDT.
  CARLETON AROUND 700 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  TEMPERANCE...         PETERSBURG...         OTTAWA LAKE...
  MONROE...             MAYBEE...             LUNA PIER...
  LAMBERTVILLE...       IDA...                DUNDEE...
  CARLETON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8376 4209 8329 4207 8327 4202 8316
      4199 8318 4196 8325 4192 8326 4193 8331
      4189 8333 4186 8338 4180 8340 4179 8344
      4175 8342 4174 8342 4173 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 267DEG 33KT 4205 8368
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

KURIMSKI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 15, 3:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 3:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO CENTER AROUND DEVELOPING CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRED LATE YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM
18Z SHOWED A CAP HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 850MB. CONSERVATIVE SOUNDING
MODIFICATION WITH A T/TD OF 74/60 YIELDED ABOUT 2400 J/KG OF
CAPE...AND HAD COMPLETELY WIPED OUT THE CAP. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA HAD RISEN TO 74 OR ABOVE AT 300 PM...AND SPC
ANALYSIS MAPS ALSO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM OFF STORM COMPLEXES IN OHIO
AND WEST VIRGINIA. THIS BOUNDARY SETTLED ROUGHLY FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
LANSING TO JACKSON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS THEN
ENHANCED AS WINDS TURNED TO THE WEST BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THIS LINE IS STARTING TO FILL IN
WITH CONVECTION...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHER SOURCE FOR UPWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WILL BE THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. PULSE TYPE
STORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON...THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A FEW LINE SEGMENTS. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AS TALL AND FAT CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST
UPDRAFTS REACHING THE 0C AND -20C LEVELS. (FREEZING LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 11KFT WITH THE -20C LEVEL NEAR 20KFT).
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...WITH A SLIGHT INVERTED V LOOK
TO THE SOUNDINGS...AND ALSO JUST GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ONE CHANGE
FROM THIS MORNING...FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS HAS TURNED MORE
SOUTHERLY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CANNOT THEREFORE
RULE OUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO. BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3PM AND 10PM.

MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE THUMB AS FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST OFF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD...DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...AND WINDS GO CALM.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL
SUITE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MI ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION...DESPITE THE FACT THAT
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE AMPLE STRATUS NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY PROBABLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE COLD GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH FRI AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON PLACEMENT OF THIS
FRONT AS A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL BRING THE
COLD MARINE LAYER WELL INLAND ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY.
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MARINE LAYER...THESE LOCALS MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN STRATUS FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE DAY. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ERODE ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THE FORECAST GRIDS WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFLECT THIS THERMAL GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S
NEAR LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY AND WELL IN THE 70S FARTHER SOUTH.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE
AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND A LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL REINFORCE THE WARM-MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COUPLED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MARCH STANDARDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS THE CURRENT CHANCE
POPS DURING THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARRANTED. THERE IS AGAIN
A POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BREAK 80 ON SATURDAY UNDER GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AS FOR SUNDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION SUPPORT KEEPING HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEAK...WHILE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN US /ACTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/. THIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF EXTREMELY MILD WEATHER /TEMPS
AVERAGING A GOOD 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE TIMES NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PUT A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY. THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER SO EARLY IN THE SPRING WILL ALSO
PLACE MARCH 2012 AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MARCHES ON RECORD /IF NOT THE
WARMEST/.

&&

.MARINE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
SOUTHWARD...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AND ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON...AS COOLER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
BECOME CALM. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
(AFTER THIS EVENING) WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE CROSSES UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 211 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

//DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE
REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND BY A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AROUND ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER THE MAIN THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL FADE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CHANGING OVER
TO FOG POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z. SEASONABLY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOL DEEPENS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL
ALSO PROMOTE THIS POTENTIAL AS A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALSO SETS UP.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET BETWEEN 16Z-06Z WITH A
  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AFTER 20Z..BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 200
  FT OR 1/2SM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 15, 4:52 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
452 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-162100-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
452 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH 9 PM EDT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...HOWEVER
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE
TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AFTER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS COMING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTERS
HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-162100-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
452 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON...INCLUDING ALL NEARSHORE WATERS...LAKE ST CLAIR...AND THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE UNTIL 9 PM EDT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...HOWEVER DAMAGING WINDS TO 55 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 20 KNOTS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AFTER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS COMING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY. SPOTTERS
HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED.

HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 15, 4:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
417 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             4 SSW CASEVILLE         43.89N 83.32W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       HURON              MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0412 PM     HAIL             6 SE ELKTON             43.76N 83.10W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       HURON              MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADODSON

Local storm report, Mar 15, 4:36 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
436 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             1 ENE HOWELL            42.62N 83.91W
03/15/2012  E0.75 INCH       LIVINGSTON         MI   PUBLIC

&&

ADODSON

Local storm report, Mar 15, 4:45 PM EDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
445 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             6 N BAY CITY            43.67N 83.91W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       BAY                MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ADODSON

Local storm report, Mar 15, 4:55 PM EDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
455 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             BAY CITY                43.59N 83.89W
03/15/2012  M2.00 INCH       BAY                MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAILING FOR AT LEAST 25 MINUTES AT BAY CITY STATE
            RECREATION PARK

&&

ADODSON

Local storm report, Mar 15, 5:21 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
521 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     HAIL             4 SE CHELSEA            42.27N 83.97W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       WASHTENAW          MI   911 CALL CENTER

&&

ADODSON

Local storm report, Mar 15, 5:28 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
528 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 S PINCKNEY            42.40N 83.96W
03/15/2012                   WASHTENAW          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF FUNNEL CLOUD NORTH OF DEXTER TOWNHALL RD AND N
            TERRITORIAL RD

&&

ADODSON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 10:35 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		55 min
Mar 15, 10:55 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Macomb, Wayne	30 min
Mar 15, 12:56 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		94 min
Mar 15, 1:56 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		64 min
Mar 15, 3:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Huron	72 min
Mar 15, 3:06 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		105 min
Mar 15, 3:24 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		2 hr
Mar 15, 3:28 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		92 min
Mar 15, 3:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Bay	59 min
Mar 15, 4:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Huron	48 min
Mar 15, 4:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Livingston	81 min
Mar 15, 4:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Genesee, Saginaw	30 min
Mar 15, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Bay	77 min
Mar 15, 4:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lenawee	84 min
Mar 15, 4:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Genesee, Tuscola	95 min
Mar 15, 4:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Shiawassee	55 min
Mar 15, 4:53 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		97 min
Mar 15, 4:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	93 min
Mar 15, 5:07 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	DTX	Livingston, Washtenaw	53 min
Mar 15, 5:28 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		92 min
Mar 15, 5:28 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	62 min
Mar 15, 5:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lapeer, Tuscola	83 min
Mar 15, 5:45 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	DTX	Monroe	16 min
Mar 15, 6:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Genesee, Tuscola	29 min
Mar 15, 6:22 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		113 min
Mar 15, 6:28 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	47 min
Mar 15, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lenawee	42 min
Mar 15, 6:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Tuscola	56 min
Mar 15, 6:44 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	DTX	Lapeer	34 min
Mar 15, 6:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Oakland	29 min
Mar 15, 6:51 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	DTX	Washtenaw	3 hr
Mar 15, 6:57 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		93 min
Mar 15, 6:58 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	DTX	Lenawee, Monroe	47 min
Mar 15, 7:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Wayne	25 min
Mar 15, 7:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Huron, Sanilac	54 min
Mar 15, 7:12 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	DTX		2 hr
Mar 15, 7:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lapeer	73 min
Mar 15, 7:19 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	DTX	Genesee, Lapeer, Tuscola	5 hr
Mar 15, 7:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Bay	16 min
Mar 15, 7:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Monroe	52 min
Mar 15, 7:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lapeer	47 min
Mar 15, 7:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DTX	Lenawee	44 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.