Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Detroit, MI

244 
WWUS53 KDTX 152020
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
420 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC093-152130-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120315T2130Z/
LIVINGSTON MI-
420 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIVINGSTON
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOWELL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HOWELL AROUND 430 PM EDT.
  CHILSON AROUND 435 PM EDT.
  BRIGHTON AROUND 445 PM EDT.
  HARTLAND AROUND 455 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  OAK GROVE...          PINCKNEY...           HOWELL...
  HARTLAND...           HAMBURG...            GREGORY...
  FOWLERVILLE...        COHOCTAH...           BRIGHTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 8401 4278 8369 4244 8366 4242 8414
      4277 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 259DEG 21KT 4258 8400
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

KURIMSKI

354 
WWUS53 KDTX 152037
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
437 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC093-152130-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120315T2130Z/
LIVINGSTON MI-
437 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIVINGSTON
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HOWELL TO PINCKNEY...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HARTLAND AND CHILSON AROUND 445 PM EDT.
  TYRONE TOWNSHIP AND LAKELAND AROUND 450 PM EDT.
  HAMBURG AND BRIGHTON AROUND 455 PM EDT.
  ISLAND LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA AROUND 505 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  OAK GROVE...          PINCKNEY...           HOWELL...
  HARTLAND...           HAMBURG...            GREGORY...
  FOWLERVILLE...        COHOCTAH...           BRIGHTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 8401 4278 8369 4244 8366 4242 8414
      4277 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 259DEG 21KT 4264 8382 4246 8395
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

KURIMSKI

935 
WWUS53 KDTX 152045
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
445 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC093-152130-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120315T2130Z/
LIVINGSTON MI-
445 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIVINGSTON
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HOWELL TO PINCKNEY...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HOWELL AND LAKELAND AROUND 450 PM EDT.
  HAMBURG AND CHILSON AROUND 455 PM EDT.
  ISLAND LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA AND BRIGHTON AROUND 505 PM EDT.
  HARTLAND AROUND 515 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  OAK GROVE...          PINCKNEY...           HOWELL...
  HARTLAND...           HAMBURG...            GREGORY...
  FOWLERVILLE...        COHOCTAH...           BRIGHTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 8401 4278 8369 4244 8366 4242 8414
      4277 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 259DEG 21KT 4257 8397 4247 8390
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.75IN

$$

KURIMSKI

724 
WWUS53 KDTX 152101
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
501 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIC093-152130-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120315T2130Z/
LIVINGSTON MI-
501 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LIVINGSTON
COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PINCKNEY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKELAND AND CHILSON AROUND 515 PM EDT.
  HAMBURG AROUND 520 PM EDT.
  ISLAND LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA AND BRIGHTON AROUND 525 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  OAK GROVE...          PINCKNEY...           HOWELL...
  HARTLAND...           HAMBURG...            GREGORY...
  FOWLERVILLE...        COHOCTAH...           BRIGHTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 8401 4278 8369 4244 8366 4242 8414
      4277 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 263DEG 21KT 4249 8395
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

DRK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
356 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT

FOCUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO CENTER AROUND DEVELOPING CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRED LATE YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM
18Z SHOWED A CAP HAD DEVELOPED AROUND 850MB. CONSERVATIVE SOUNDING
MODIFICATION WITH A T/TD OF 74/60 YIELDED ABOUT 2400 J/KG OF
CAPE...AND HAD COMPLETELY WIPED OUT THE CAP. TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA HAD RISEN TO 74 OR ABOVE AT 300 PM...AND SPC
ANALYSIS MAPS ALSO SHOW LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM OFF STORM COMPLEXES IN OHIO
AND WEST VIRGINIA. THIS BOUNDARY SETTLED ROUGHLY FROM SAGINAW BAY TO
LANSING TO JACKSON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS THEN
ENHANCED AS WINDS TURNED TO THE WEST BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THIS LINE IS STARTING TO FILL IN
WITH CONVECTION...AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO
FILL IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
OTHER SOURCE FOR UPWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WILL BE THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. PULSE TYPE
STORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON...THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A FEW LINE SEGMENTS. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AS TALL AND FAT CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST
UPDRAFTS REACHING THE 0C AND -20C LEVELS. (FREEZING LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 11KFT WITH THE -20C LEVEL NEAR 20KFT).
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...WITH A SLIGHT INVERTED V LOOK
TO THE SOUNDINGS...AND ALSO JUST GIVEN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ONE CHANGE
FROM THIS MORNING...FLOW IN THE LOWEST LEVELS HAS TURNED MORE
SOUTHERLY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CANNOT THEREFORE
RULE OUT A SUPERCELL OR TWO. BEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 3PM AND 10PM.

MOISTURE DEPTH IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE THUMB AS FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST OFF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL
BRING POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
MILD...DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH...AND WINDS GO CALM.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY

SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST BY THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL
SUITE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MI ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
WARMING SHOULD SUPPRESS DAYTIME CONVECTION...DESPITE THE FACT THAT
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING
ACROSS FAR SRN LOWER MI. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE AMPLE STRATUS NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
SEEMS HIGHLY PROBABLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE COLD GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTH FRI AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON PLACEMENT OF THIS
FRONT AS A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL BRING THE
COLD MARINE LAYER WELL INLAND ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY.
GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW AND EXPECTED DEPTH OF THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MARINE LAYER...THESE LOCALS MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN STRATUS FOR A GOOD
PART OF THE DAY. ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ERODE ANY MORNING CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THE FORECAST GRIDS WILL ATTEMPT
TO REFLECT THIS THERMAL GRADIENT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S
NEAR LAKE HURON AND SAGINAW BAY AND WELL IN THE 70S FARTHER SOUTH.

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL UNDERGO CONSIDERABLE
AMPLIFICATION THIS WEEKEND...WITH A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND A LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL REINFORCE THE WARM-MOIST AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COUPLED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR MARCH STANDARDS WILL LEAD TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN DEEP LAYER SWRLY FLOW. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THUS THE CURRENT CHANCE
POPS DURING THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK WARRANTED. THERE IS AGAIN
A POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BREAK 80 ON SATURDAY UNDER GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW. AS FOR SUNDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION SUPPORT KEEPING HIGHS TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEAK...WHILE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN US /ACTUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES/. THIS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF EXTREMELY MILD WEATHER /TEMPS
AVERAGING A GOOD 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE TIMES NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PUT A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY. THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER SO EARLY IN THE SPRING WILL ALSO
PLACE MARCH 2012 AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MARCHES ON RECORD /IF NOT THE
WARMEST/.

&&

.MARINE...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN LAKE HURON
SOUTHWARD...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT...THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AND ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON...AS COOLER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION AND WINDS
BECOME CALM. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
(AFTER THIS EVENING) WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK
UPPER WAVE CROSSES UNDER THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 211 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

//DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES OVER THE
REGION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT
SINKING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND BY A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AROUND ONE
INCH IN DIAMETER THE MAIN THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL FADE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CHANGING OVER
TO FOG POTENTIAL AFTER 06Z. SEASONABLY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOL DEEPENS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY FORM ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE. FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL
ALSO PROMOTE THIS POTENTIAL AS A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALSO SETS UP.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET BETWEEN 16Z-06Z WITH A
  MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE AFTER 20Z..BUT LOW
  CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 200
  FT OR 1/2SM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HLO
LONG TERM....SC
MARINE.......HLO
AVIATION.....HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
929 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-161330-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
929 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 60
MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AFTER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS COMING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-161330-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
929 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS TO 55 KNOTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST AT
20 KNOTS.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS COMING LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGER IMMEDIATELY.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

HLO

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1110 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     HAIL             WARREN                  42.49N 83.03W
03/15/2012  M1.50 INCH       MACOMB             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RKULIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1125 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 AM     HAIL             2 WNW ST. CLAIR SHORES  42.51N 82.93W
03/15/2012  M0.50 INCH       MACOMB             MI   911 CALL CENTER

&&

RKULIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1144 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIZ063-070-151645-
MACOMB-ST. CLAIR-
1144 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 1143 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORMS 8 MILES WEST OF MOUNT CLEMENS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MACOMB TOWNSHIP BY 1155 AM EDT...
  MOUNT CLEMENS BY 1205 PM EDT...
  NEW BALTIMORE BY 1220 PM EDT...
  HARSENS ISLAND BY 1240 PM EDT...
  ALGONAC BY 1245 PM EDT...

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
331 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     HAIL             5 W ST. CLAIR SHORES    42.48N 82.99W
03/15/2012  E1.75 INCH       MACOMB             MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ADODSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
339 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             1 NNE HARBOR BEACH      43.86N 82.65W
03/15/2012  M1.00 INCH       HURON              MI   COAST GUARD

            HAIL WAS ACCUMULATING ON GROUND

&&

ADODSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
347 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-152045-
GENESEE-LAPEER-LENAWEE-LIVINGSTON-MACOMB-MONROE-OAKLAND-SHIAWASSEE-
ST. CLAIR-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
347 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
SOUTH OF DURAND TO 10 MILES WEST OF CHELSEA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WHILE TRAVELING EASTWARD
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CADMUS...             LENNON...             GAINES...
  MONTROSE...           GREGORY...            COHOCTAH...
  WESTON...             UNADILLA...           SAND CREEK...
  OAK GROVE...          TIPTON...             LYNDON TOWNSHIP...
  FLUSHING...           JASPER...             DEERFIELD TOWNSHIP...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BT