Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

July 31, 2012Potter County, Tioga County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2012, 7:34 PM EDT for Potter County, Tioga County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2012, 7:34 PM EDT (23:34 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

Counties Potter County, PA, Tioga County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 666 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1048 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 5:41 PM EDT, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 5:41 PM EDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS HUMID AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THU INTO FRI. A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID
AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS PULSE-TYPE TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT
21Z. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU THE NIGHT. FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE ALLEGHENY MTNS EASTWARD TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
OVERNIGHT BASED ON MDL EVOLUTION OF LL JET AND AXIS OF HIGHEST
PWATS.

WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING...GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE...PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN 21Z SPC MESOANALYSIS CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD SVR EARLY THIS EVENING.

PARTIAL CLEARING...LGT WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AGAIN...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AFT...BUT LESS CHC THAN
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD...AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATE.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TAKING PLACE
IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH
AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF SLICING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH LOWER
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL
UPPER FLOW LATER THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF
THE VIGOROUS GREAT LAKES TROF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP
FROPA IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWER THREATS EACH DAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SAT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST SE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TRIMMING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE WE ARE PAST MAX HEATING.

STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

LOWER CIGS AND FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN RATHER HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT...BUT LESS CHC.

MOST OF THU AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CHC OF FOG EACH
MORNING.

A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM...MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE DRY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...MARTIN

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 3:43 PM EDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-011945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:52 PM EDT, 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
652 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ005-006-011-012-037-312330-
CAMERON PA-MCKEAN PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-
652 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CAMERON...
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN TIOGA...POTTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 644 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 14
MILES NORTHEAST OF WOODHULL TO EMPORIUM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT WHARTON...LYMAN RUN STATE PARK...GALETON AND CROSS FORK.

LAT...LON 4135 7790 4155 7842 4160 7842 4200 7786
      4200 7711

FORECASTER: KF

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:00 PM EDT, 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ026>028-050-056-057-063>065-312330-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN
PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-YORK PA-
700 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ADAMS...EASTERN
CUMBERLAND...JUNIATA...NORTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON...NORTHERN MIFFLIN...
PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN DAUPHIN...SOUTHWESTERN SNYDER AND WESTERN YORK
COUNTIES...

AT 653 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
REEDSVILLE TO CARLISLE SPRINGS TO LITTLESTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SHERMANSDALE...
REEDS GAP STATE PARK AND LOWER ALLEN.

LAT...LON 4025 7734 4072 7786 4072 7771 4077 7759
      4082 7725 4038 7675 3972 7666 3972 7736

FORECASTER: KF

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:11 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ004-005-010-312345-
ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
711 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELK...SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 703 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SHEFFIELD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT WETMORE...KANE AND
JAMES CITY.

LAT...LON 4164 7848 4142 7897 4145 7899 4145 7897
      4162 7896 4162 7909 4170 7913 4178 7892

FORECASTER: KF

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:29 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             SHEFFIELD               41.70N  79.03W
07/31/2012  M0.70 INCH       WARREN             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200345

MACH

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:33 PM EDT, 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ028-050-052-056-057-059-063>066-010000-
ADAMS PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-
NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-YORK PA-
733 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DAUPHIN...EASTERN
ADAMS...EASTERN CUMBERLAND...EASTERN PERRY...NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA...
NORTHERN YORK...SOUTHERN SNYDER...SOUTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND...WEST
CENTRAL LANCASTER AND WESTERN LEBANON COUNTIES...

AT 726 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
MCALISTERVILLE TO ROCKVILLE TO SPRING GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE
LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER
UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY FERRY...
RICHFIELD AND HERSHEY.

LAT...LON 3977 7712 4029 7720 4064 7744 4069 7730
      4069 7731 4070 7732 4082 7695 4043 7651
      3990 7647

FORECASTER: KF

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:34 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
734 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ006-012-037-041-010000-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-
734 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN LYCOMING...SOUTHEASTERN POTTER AND WESTERN
TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 726 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
WOODHULL TO WHARTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT GALETON...CROSS FORK AND OLE BULL STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 4144 7756 4148 7805 4156 7814 4157 7815
      4201 7765 4200 7701

FORECASTER: KF

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 7:27 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Bedford, Blair, Somerset	63 min
Jul 31, 11:57 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	48 min
Jul 31, 12:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron, Elk	55 min
Jul 31, 12:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	54 min
Jul 31, 12:56 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Somerset	3 hr
Jul 31, 1:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Somerset	42 min
Jul 31, 1:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	30 min
Jul 31, 1:33 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Cambria	104 min
Jul 31, 1:40 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron, McKean, Potter	35 min
Jul 31, 1:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	32 min
Jul 31, 1:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	24 min
Jul 31, 2:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean, Potter	47 min
Jul 31, 2:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	45 min
Jul 31, 2:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron	25 min
Jul 31, 2:31 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Clearfield	119 min
Jul 31, 2:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland	26 min
Jul 31, 3:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	43 min
Jul 31, 3:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	40 min
Jul 31, 3:21 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	24 min
Jul 31, 3:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	34 min
Jul 31, 3:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	46 min
Jul 31, 3:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clinton	25 min
Jul 31, 3:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	36 min
Jul 31, 3:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	31 min
Jul 31, 4:06 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Somerset	114 min
Jul 31, 4:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	34 min
Jul 31, 4:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	30 min
Jul 31, 4:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clinton	43 min
Jul 31, 4:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	51 min
Jul 31, 4:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Mifflin	47 min
Jul 31, 4:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	34 min
Jul 31, 4:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	48 min
Jul 31, 5:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	74 min
Jul 31, 5:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Snyder	51 min
Jul 31, 5:16 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	McKean	119 min
Jul 31, 5:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin, Huntingdon, Mifflin	42 min
Jul 31, 5:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Blair, Huntingdon	40 min
Jul 31, 5:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	25 min
Jul 31, 5:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin, Huntingdon, Mifflin	33 min
Jul 31, 6:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry	30 min
Jul 31, 6:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Warren	25 min
Jul 31, 6:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Potter	38 min
Jul 31, 7:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry and 1 more	30 min
Jul 31, 7:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Elk	34 min
Jul 31, 7:18 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Perry, York	87 min
Jul 31, 7:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Dauphin, Perry, Snyder, York	27 min
Jul 31, 7:41 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Cameron, Elk, McKean, Potter, Tioga	94 min
Jul 31, 7:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, Schuylkill and 1 more	63 min
Jul 31, 7:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron, Elk, Tioga	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.