Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

July 31, 2012Somerset County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2012, 12:36 PM EDT for Somerset County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2012, 12:36 PM EDT (16:36 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2012, 1:30 PM EDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

County Somerset County, PA

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 666 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1048 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 12:13 PM EDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 12:13 PM EDT, 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1213 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CREATE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HEADING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATER
THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOMEWHAT INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE IS
POPPING OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. CAPES BETWEEN 600 AND 1200 J/KG WILL BE COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING STORMS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE INTENSITY
IN SOME INSTANCES...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
WRN SECTIONS OF PA /PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/ STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING A STRONGER STORM IN
THE VICINITY OF A LAKE BREEZE FRONT.

EARLIER CLOUD COVER HELPED HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT BUT THEY WILL TOP
OUT NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE U70S
ACROSS THE MTNS...AND L-M80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GENERALLY BKN
STRATO/ALTOCU AND SCTD SHRA...AND ISOLTD TSRA.

THE BEST LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO CENTRAL/SERN PENN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING THE GREATEST PROBABILITY
FOR SHOWERS/TSRA. STILL...AMPLE LLVL CONVERGENCE...LINGERING HIGHER
PWAT AIR...AND A FEW WEAK JETLETS EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING NNW
FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A CHC FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL NOSE A FEW DEG F ABOVE NORMAL AT ALL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCTD EVENING TSRA DIMINISHING BY
MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPS AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE COMFORTABLE U50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

IT LOOKS LIKE A TRICKY CALL FOR THURSDAY AT THIS POINT...ESP
CONSIDERING THE PREVIOUS DRY FCST DEPICTED BY US...AND WFOS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THAT PERIOD. IT/S WORTH NOTING THE FOLLOWING THOUGH...

A WEAK...SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE DEPICTS A RATHER
WELL-DEFINED 60-70KT SPEED MAX APPROACHING FROM LAKE ERIE AND FAR
NWRN PENN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINGERING MDTLY HIGH
PWAT AIR AROUND 1.5 INCHES MAY COMBINE WITH THE UPPER JET FORCING
/VIA ITS LEFT EXIT REGION/ AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY CFRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SPARK A FEW POTENT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING 0-3KM NWRLY BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS WILL ENTER
OUR NW ZONES IN THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME...HELPING TO BETTER
ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP.

THERE WILL BE LESS CHC FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY. GFS HIGHLIGHTS A BROAD
AREA OF AROUND 30 DEG F SFC T/TD SPREADS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS...TO WRN NEW ENGLAND INDICATING A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. PWATS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND AROUND
ONE INCH...AND SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

MORE IN THE WAY OF SW FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER AND
MORE HUMID AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION...BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SE LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO TRIM TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BACK TWD
NORMALS VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE WEAKEN FROM AROUND SUNRISE...
BUT EXPECT MORE THIS AFT. CIGS SLOW TO COME UP...THUS 15Z TAFS
ADJUSTED FOR THIS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
KEEPING IFR-MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN 2/3 OF CWA WHILE LLVL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PRODUCING WIDELY SCT
TSTMS ACROSS ALLEGHENY FRONT AND NORTHERN MTNS. BOTH OF THESE
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS TAFS BECOME
VFR. BUT BY LATE MORNING...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...REFIRING SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS/.WITH BEST CHANCES BEING
ACROSS THE NW AND CENTRAL MTNS.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
STILL POSS UNDER TROUGH AS DYING COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE
WEST. VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR-MVFR WITH OCNL SHRA AND SCTD TSRA.
THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 4:20 AM EDT, 8 hours 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-010830-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
420 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 7:27 AM EDT, 5 hours 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ024-025-033-034-311230-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-SOMERSET PA-
727 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BEDFORD...EASTERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHERN BLAIR AND SOUTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES...

AT 722 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
SEWARD TO BERLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT VINCO...
EBENSBURG...LILLY...CRESSON...DUNCANSVILLE AND ROARING SPRING.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 161...I-99 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 0 AND 33.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...THE JOHNSTOWN
EXPRESSWAY...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ROUTE
422...STATE ROAD 56.

LAT...LON 3982 7906 4027 7907 4036 7900 4050 7892
      4050 7826 3994 7825 3983 7830 3982 7830

FORECASTER: MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 11:57 AM EDT, 39 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ024-025-034-311645-
BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-
1157 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CAMBRIA...NORTH
CENTRAL BEDFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR COUNTIES...

AT 1155 AM EDT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
EBENSBURG TO BEAVERDALE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL AFFECT PORTAGE...LORETTO...CRESSON...TUNNELHILL AND HORSESHOE
CURVE.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-99 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 18.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
219...ROUTE 220.

LAT...LON 4058 7847 4024 7842 4031 7876 4046 7877

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 12:20 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ005-010-011-017-311715-
CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-
1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAMERON...EASTERN
ELK...NORTH CENTRAL CLEARFIELD AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 1216 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEAR
PENFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT FORCE...
MEDIX RUN...BENEZETTE AND TRUMAN.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 105 AND 113.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...ROUTE
322...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 153...STATE ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4135 7800 4132 7802 4103 7858 4138 7880
      4168 7841

FORECASTER: MARTIN

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 12:36 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1236 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ033-034-311730-
BEDFORD PA-SOMERSET PA-
1236 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SOMERSET AND
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 1233 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MEYERSDALE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT
MEYERSDALE...CALLIMONT...WELLERSBURG...BERLIN AND SHANKSVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 114
AND 131.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
219...ROUTE 220.

LAT...LON 3972 7900 3972 7919 3985 7928 4010 7883
      3979 7856 3971 7877 3971 7899

FORECASTER: MARTIN

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 7:27 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Bedford, Blair, Somerset	63 min
Jul 31, 11:57 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	48 min
Jul 31, 12:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron, Elk	55 min
Jul 31, 12:56 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Somerset	3 hr
Jul 31, 1:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Somerset	42 min
Jul 31, 1:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	30 min
Jul 31, 1:33 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Cambria	104 min
Jul 31, 1:40 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron, McKean, Potter	35 min
Jul 31, 1:43 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	32 min
Jul 31, 1:51 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	24 min
Jul 31, 2:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean, Potter	47 min
Jul 31, 2:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	45 min
Jul 31, 2:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron	25 min
Jul 31, 2:31 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Clearfield	119 min
Jul 31, 2:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland	26 min
Jul 31, 3:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	43 min
Jul 31, 3:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	40 min
Jul 31, 3:21 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	24 min
Jul 31, 3:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	34 min
Jul 31, 3:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	46 min
Jul 31, 3:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clinton	25 min
Jul 31, 3:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	36 min
Jul 31, 3:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	31 min
Jul 31, 4:06 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Somerset	114 min
Jul 31, 4:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	34 min
Jul 31, 4:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	30 min
Jul 31, 4:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clinton	43 min
Jul 31, 4:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	51 min
Jul 31, 4:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Mifflin	47 min
Jul 31, 4:41 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	34 min
Jul 31, 4:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	48 min
Jul 31, 5:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	74 min
Jul 31, 5:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Snyder	51 min
Jul 31, 5:16 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	McKean	119 min
Jul 31, 5:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin, Huntingdon, Mifflin	42 min
Jul 31, 5:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Blair, Huntingdon	40 min
Jul 31, 5:35 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	McKean	25 min
Jul 31, 5:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin, Huntingdon, Mifflin	33 min
Jul 31, 6:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry	30 min
Jul 31, 6:50 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Warren	25 min
Jul 31, 6:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Potter	38 min
Jul 31, 7:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry and 1 more	30 min
Jul 31, 7:11 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Elk	34 min
Jul 31, 7:18 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Perry, York	87 min
Jul 31, 7:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Dauphin, Perry, Snyder, York	27 min
Jul 31, 7:34 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Potter, Tioga	26 min
Jul 31, 7:41 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Cameron, Elk, McKean, Potter, Tioga	94 min
Jul 31, 7:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, Schuylkill and 1 more	63 min
Jul 31, 7:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cameron, Elk, Tioga	34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.