Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
321 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS HUMID AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THU INTO FRI. A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID
AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK SE FLOW AND HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS THAT HAVE DECENT HEATING SINCE
NOONTIME.

LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD MAINLY RESULT IN PULSE TYPE STORMS...
WITH MAINLY HEAVY RAIN. A FEW COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH JUST SOME
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AGAIN...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AFT...BUT LESS CHC THAN
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD...AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATE.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TAKING PLACE
IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH
AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF SLICING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH LOWER
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL
UPPER FLOW LATER THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF
THE VIGOROUS GREAT LAKES TROF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP
FROPA IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWER THREATS EACH DAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SAT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST SE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TRIMMING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE WE ARE PAST MAX HEATING.

STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

LOWER CIGS AND FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN RATHER HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT...BUT LESS CHC.

MOST OF THU AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CHC OF FOG EACH
MORNING.

A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM...MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE DRY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-011945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ026>028-312115-
HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
HUNTINGDON...WEST CENTRAL JUNIATA AND WESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTIES...

AT 426 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
MCALEVYS FORT TO MCVEYTOWN...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT STRODES MILLS AND YEAGERTOWN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22/522...ROUTE
322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 4072 7759 4048 7748 4041 7778 4064 7789

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
441 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ033-312115-
SOMERSET PA-
441 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

AT 435 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SOMERSET...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN
NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY WILL
CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT SOMERSET...FRIEDENS...AND INDIAN LAKE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 104
AND 129.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
219.

LAT...LON 4008 7918 4018 7870 4015 7870 4008 7873
      4005 7877 3994 7876 3990 7913

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ004-005-312145-
MCKEAN PA-WARREN PA-
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES...

AT 454 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF LIMESTONE TO SCANDIA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT BRADFORD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 62...ROUTE 219...
STATE ROAD 59.

LAT...LON 4200 7845 4185 7871 4189 7924 4201 7903

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ037-041-312215-
NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-TIOGA PA-
501 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LYCOMING AND TIOGA
COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
LYCOMING AND TIOGA COUNTIES AT 458 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MORRIS AND MANSFIELD.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 15...
STATE ROAD 14.

LAT...LON 4199 7692 4161 7687 4160 7686 4128 7729
      4175 7760 4178 7761 4201 7729 4200 7693

FORECASTER: STEINBUGL