Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
602 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER EASTERN PENNSVYLANIA TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE STATE ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS/850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION STARTED POPPING OFF
CELLS ON TIME BY 18-19Z...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING AND FOCUS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG ISOLD TO
SCT...KEPT POPS AOB 50 PCT...AND FOR THE MOST PART SUB SEVERE.
RECENT UPDRAFT OVER ELK COUNTY WAS IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER...REQUIRING
A SVR FOR A 70 DBZ CORE WHICH BRIEFLY PULSED HIGH ENOUGH FOR
DOWNBURST AND SMALL HAIL CONCERNS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECONDARY SURGING OF THE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS WHICH COULD KEEP CONVECTION
LINGERING LONG PAST MIDNIGHT. OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH APPROACH TO
AREAS WEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MIDWESTERN RIDGE AXIS SHARPENS ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
FIELD DEPRESSING IN RESPONSE TO ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AM SUNSHINE SOUTH OF FRONT SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE L/80S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY EARLY AFTN...RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SREF MEAN CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG/.
BEST CHC OF ISOLATED SVR WX APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA...WHERE 00Z MDL DATA AGREES THE HIGHEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTN. DWINDLING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE FRI EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH TO THE LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY...COOLER WX PATTERN MOVES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LG
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SE FROM ONTARIO CANADA. PASSAGE OF A WEAK
AND FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THROUGH SAT. ONE LAST WARMER DAY ON SAT BEFORE TEMPS
FALL BACK LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DRIER AIR
IN PLACE...MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY /IN THE 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S
IN THE N MTNS/ BEFORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN LINE WITH NEXT ORGANIZED PCPN EVENT PROGGED FOR TUE-
WED...AS A MID-UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON DEPTH AND PROGRESSION OF THAT SYSTEM...THOUGH BOTH GEFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS TRACK SFC COLD FRONT THRU THE
AREA LATER TUES OR EARLY WED.

UNSETTLED...COOL WX ON TAP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF SLOWLY
PASSES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ADJUSTED 21Z TAFS FOR CONVECTION. WIND...HAIL THREAT FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

HI RES MDL DATA/COSPA MQINTAINS TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BUT WITHOUT LARGESCALE FORCING DID NOT MENTION AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.

RETURN OF LOW CIGS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI IN THE SE
AIRFIELDS AND HAVE ADDED MVFR/IFR GROUPS AT MDT AND LNS AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS.
SAT...ISOLD TSRA IMPACTS PSBL OVER SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/MARTIN/STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ006-012-018-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-040615-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
215 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-025-033-034-040615-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
215 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ028-049-050-052-056-057-032300-
DAUPHIN PA-JUNIATA PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-SNYDER PA-UNION PA-
613 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN SNYDER...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHWESTERN DAUPHIN...
SOUTHEASTERN UNION AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 610 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
MIDDLEBURG TO MILLERSTOWN TO PORT ROYAL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT KRATZERVILLE...SELINSGROVE...RESLER...REBUCK
AND ELIZABETHVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY 147...
ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 209...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE
522...STATE ROAD 61.

LAT...LON 4056 7753 4059 7749 4068 7711 4095 7701
      4086 7668 4041 7685 4036 7731

FORECASTER: DANGELO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
656 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ050>053-057>059-040000-
COLUMBIA PA-DAUPHIN PA-LEBANON PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-
SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-
656 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN SNYDER...
NORTHERN DAUPHIN...NORTHERN LEBANON...NORTHUMBERLAND...SOUTHERN
COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN MONTOUR AND WESTERN SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...

AT 653 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
RIVERSIDE TO TREVORTON TO REBUCK TO ELIZABETHVILLE TO HALIFAX...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT ELYSBURG...CATAWISSA...MAINVILLE...MOUNT
CARMEL...PINE GROVE AND FRACKVILLE.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-78 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 8...I-81 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 82 AND
123.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE HIGHWAY
147...ROUTE 11...ROUTE 11/15...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 22...ROUTE 209...
ROUTE 522...STATE ROAD 61...STATE ROAD 501.

LAT...LON 4051 7627 4051 7634 4049 7643 4041 7629
      4039 7629 4039 7696 4089 7689 4089 7682
      4095 7688 4098 7688 4097 7620

FORECASTER: MARTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
705 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ035-036-032330-
FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
705 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 702 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COVE MILLS...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT BIG COVE TANNERY
AND CLAYLICK.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 159 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 3978 7833 3985 7829 3987 7798 3972 7771
      3972 7826

FORECASTER: EVANEGO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
730 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ034>036-040015-
BEDFORD PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA-
730 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

AT 727 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COVE MILLS...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SOME TOWNS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS WILL INCLUDE NEEDMORE...BIG COVE
TANNERY AND CLAYLICK.

THIS WILL IMPACT I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 3983 7845 3995 7832 3986 7783 3972 7779
      3971 7814

FORECASTER: EVANEGO