Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
401 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER EASTERN PENNSVYLANIA TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE ENTIRE STATE ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOST OF THE
COMMONWEALTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS/850 MB THETA-E RIDGE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PA SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION STARTED POPPING OFF
CELLS ON TIME BY 18-19Z...BUT STILL THINKING THAT THE OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING AND FOCUS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE CVRG ISOLD TO
SCT...KEPT POPS AOB 50 PCT...AND FOR THE MOST PART SUB SEVERE.
RECENT UPDRAFT OVER ELK COUNTY WAS IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER...REQUIRING
A SVR FOR A 70 DBZ CORE WHICH BRIEFLY PULSED HIGH ENOUGH FOR
DOWNBURST AND SMALL HAIL CONCERNS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECONDARY SURGING OF THE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS WHICH COULD KEEP CONVECTION
LINGERING LONG PAST MIDNIGHT. OPTED FOR A BROADBRUSH APPROACH TO
AREAS WEST OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLD TO SCT POPS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MIDWESTERN RIDGE AXIS SHARPENS ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT
FIELD DEPRESSING IN RESPONSE TO ALLOW COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS
CENTRAL PA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

AM SUNSHINE SOUTH OF FRONT SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE L/80S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY EARLY AFTN...RESULTING IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SREF MEAN CAPES ARND 1000 J/KG/.
BEST CHC OF ISOLATED SVR WX APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST
PA...WHERE 00Z MDL DATA AGREES THE HIGHEST CAPES WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTN. DWINDLING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE STATE FRI EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH TO THE LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY FOR EARLY MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DRY...COOLER WX PATTERN MOVES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LG
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SE FROM ONTARIO CANADA. PASSAGE OF A WEAK
AND FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA THROUGH SAT. ONE LAST WARMER DAY ON SAT BEFORE TEMPS
FALL BACK LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DRIER AIR
IN PLACE...MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY /IN THE 40S AND EVEN UPPER 30S
IN THE N MTNS/ BEFORE SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN LINE WITH NEXT ORGANIZED PCPN EVENT PROGGED FOR TUE-
WED...AS A MID-UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON DEPTH AND PROGRESSION OF THAT SYSTEM...THOUGH BOTH GEFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS TRACK SFC COLD FRONT THRU THE
AREA LATER TUES OR EARLY WED.

UNSETTLED...COOL WX ON TAP FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROF SLOWLY
PASSES THRU.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI RES MDL DATA/COSPA MQINTAINS TSTMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BUT WITHOUT LARGESCALE FORCING DID NOT MENTION AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.

RETURN OF LOW CIGS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI IN THE SE
AIRFIELDS AND HAVE ADDED MVFR/IFR GROUPS AT MDT AND LNS AFT 03Z.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS.
SAT...ISOLD TSRA IMPACTS PSBL OVER SRN AIRFIELDS.
SUN-MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ006-012-018-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-040615-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-
MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
215 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-025-033-034-040615-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
215 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
143 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ004-031830-
WARREN PA-
143 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY...

AT 136 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 12 MILES WEST OF ELGIN...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT COLUMBUS.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 6.

LAT...LON 4178 7948 4181 7962 4197 7962 4200 7961
      4200 7943

FORECASTER: DEVOIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
320 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ010-011-031945-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-
320 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON AND
SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BENEZETTE...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HICKS RUN AND DRIFTWOOD.

THIS WILL IMPACT STATE ROAD 120.

LAT...LON 4145 7799 4138 7798 4122 7809 4125 7840
      4132 7842 4147 7800

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
355 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ010-011-017-032045-
CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-
355 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ELK...NORTHERN CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN CAMERON COUNTIES...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVERED PORTIONS OF CAMERON...
CLEARFIELD AND ELK COUNTIES AT 351 PM EDT. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WERE GENERALLY MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH...BUT SOME WERE NEARLY
STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND FILL POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THE RAIN WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS. THERE IS A MINOR FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ELK
COUNTY AS WELL.

LAT...LON 4131 7812 4113 7807 4107 7839 4118 7879
      4121 7876 4120 7872 4122 7872 4123 7874
      4127 7876 4133 7889 4159 7893

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

PAZ010-017-032115-
CLEARFIELD PA-ELK PA-
444 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CLEARFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTIES...

AT 443 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PENFIELD...MOVING EAST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT PARKER DAM STATE PARK AND MEDIX RUN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...STATE ROAD 153...STATE
ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4132 7825 4132 7824 4123 7824 4123 7819
      4113 7818 4113 7857 4126 7862 4135 7825

FORECASTER: EVANEGO