Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
801 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL LIFT ONLY A LITTLE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARMER AND
MORE-MOIST AIR TO THE WEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MORE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO ROLL AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...PRODUCING
EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STORMS ARE FINALLY FIRING UP OVER NWRN PA/WRN NY WITH ADVANCE OF
MID LEVEL COOLING. LAPSE RATES STILL STEEP AND CAPES >1000J/KG
INVOF THAT CLUSTER OF CELLS. THESE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
BROKEN LINE OF CONV DO HAVE SOME HIGH EHI VALUES...SO MONITORING
FOR CIRCULATION WARRANTED. HAVE GUSTY WINDS MENTIONE IN THE
GRIDS/ZFP. ACTIVITY OVER SWRN SECTIONS HAS DIED WITH LOSS OF
SUN/HEAT. BUT THE CONV TO THE NW IS PROGGED BY MOST MODELS TO
CONTINUE IN AN ORDERLY FASHION INTO THE CENTRAL COS THROUGH 06Z
AND DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT AFTER 06Z AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION DIPS
INTO THE COOL/STABLE AIR TO THE EAST.

AFTN DISC...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS CENTRAL MTNS
CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORIENTED IN A N-S DIRECTION. AT
18Z...FRONT LOCATED IN VICINITY OF KBFD-KUNV-KDCA. THE FNTL
BNDRY/LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY ACT AS THE FOCUS TO TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TDY. SPC HAS OUTLINED THE SW 1/2
OF THE CWA IN THE DAY 1 SLGT RISK...WHICH SEEMS WARRANTED GIVEN
LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGS COOLER THAN LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE
WEST...OWING TO SFC RIDGING ALG THE NRN MID-ATLC COAST AND
MARITIME INFLUENCE FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
RATHER PRONOUNCED FROM SW TO NE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20F.

S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE MCS OVR IA/WI WILL TRACK EWD THRU
THE GRT LKS THIS AFTN...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ONGOING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE STRENGTH AS IT SHIFTS FURTHER
EWD AND DIVES INTO NRN AND ERN PA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PCPN THUR NGT WILL BE
ACRS THE NRN TIER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEARS LKLY
ON FRIDAY AS A SFC COLD FNT SINKS SLOWLY SWD FM THE LWR LAKES. AFTERNOON
TEMPS ON FRI ARE PROGGED TO REACH THE MID 80S OVR THE LWR SUSQ
VLY...WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL
RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LESS HIGH CLOUDS...THERE WILL BE LESS OF A CAP...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF AN 850 MB TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GIVEN ENOUGH MOISTURE...HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY. EXPECT
ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. BEFORE ENDING AFTER SUNSET....THOUGH IT COULD PERSIST
LONGER ALONG THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
DISAGREEING ON THE POSITION OF AN UPPER CYCLONE OVR SOUTH EASTERN CANADA.
THE GFS/GEFS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND THEREFORE INDICATE
LOWER HGTS OVR THE NE STATES SUN-MON. THE NCEP DATA ALONG WITH THE
CANADIAN WOULD SUGGEST A DRY/COOLER PD DURING THIS TIME AS HIGH
PRES PUSHES A SFC FNT SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE.
MEANWHILE...THE OP EC IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER
AND BASICALLY KEEPS THE RING-OF-FIRE PATTERN GOING THRU THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A BROAD CONSENSUS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED PCPN
EVENT BY NEXT TUE-WED AS A MID-UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD FM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THAT
SYSTEM...THOUGH BOTH SYSTEMS BRING IT THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THE EC IS FASTER COMPARED WITH EH GFS...WHERE THE GFS BEGINS
AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE EC IS THE OPPOSITE.
BEGINNING AS A TROUGH...AND CLOSING OFF ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES
THE COAST. HAVE LEFT BROAD LOW POPS IN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ENDED UP PUTTING THUNDER IN BFD...STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS LIKELY LATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.

FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS...LOW CIGS AND FOG ALREADY
IN PLACE...JUST EAST OF UNV.

OUTLOOK...
THU...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSS...ESP SOUTH AND EAST IN THE MORNING.
SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...ESP WEST.
FRI...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS...ESP NORTH.
SAT...SCT PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS.
SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/RXR/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/RXR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-066-031915-
POTTER-NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-LANCASTER-
307 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017>019-024>028-033>036-056-063>065-031915-
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-
307 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RXR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
812 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M0.88 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200012

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
838 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

0805 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

0810 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

0811 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M0.88 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200013 CTP1200014 CTP1200015 CTP1200012

EVANEGO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
949 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

0805 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

            HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

0810 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

            HALF-DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

0811 PM     HAIL             BRADFORD                41.96N  78.64W
05/02/2012  M0.88 INCH       MCKEAN             PA   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN AND NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

0846 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S CORYVILLE           41.85N  78.39W
05/02/2012                   MCKEAN             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON ROUTE 446 IN KEATING TWP.

0905 PM     HAIL             GALETON                 41.73N  77.64W
05/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       POTTER             PA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

0918 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AYERS HILL              41.73N  77.97W
05/02/2012                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES REPORTED DOWN IN SUMMIT TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200013 CTP1200014 CTP1200015 CTP1200012 CTP1200017
CTP1200016 CTP1200018

EVANEGO

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