Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
541 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS IS FIRING UP CONVECTION
ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST WILL AIDE IN THE EXPECTED CONVECTION FOR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
FUEL THE SYSTEM PUMPING IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT
GOES SOUNDING IMAGERY IS SHOWING ROUGHLY 1.5 INCH PWATS OVER THE
AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ENTER
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CURRENTLY...A S/W DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ENTERING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS...AIDING IN MORNING CONVECTION...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BIGGER FOCUS
COMES IN TO PLAY WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL SHIFT FARTHER INTO
TEXAS...BEFORE BEING PULLED NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF THINGS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY WITH THE
TRACKING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...ONE
BEING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND THE SECOND BEING THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER...MULTIPLE WEATHER
INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SPLIT FLOW ALOFT...WITH PRESSURE HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING TEMPERATURES. THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO AIDE IN THE INCREASED SHEARING FROM 0-6KM TO
45-50KTS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND SHEARING...
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE REMAINS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAJOR THREATS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...PARTICULARLY OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS
WHERE HIGHER HELICITY VALUES REMAIN. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL...
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS
MAY PRODUCE A STORM WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN SPEED EASTWARDLY AS TIME PROGRESSES THIS EVENING...
WHICH MAY HELP REDUCE THE TIMING A STRONG STORM WOULD BE OVER THE
AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ABUNDANT RAINFALL. EXPECTING THE EVENTS TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEST DURING THE MORNING TO LATE MORNING HOURS...EXPANDING EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH THE MAIN EVENT OCCURRING BY THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DETERMINING HOW LONG
TO KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
IS MAIN CONCERN. PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AT 00Z SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE VICTORIA AREA WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA TAPERING OFF TO 20
POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
WINDING DOWN BY SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. WILL
KEEP SOME LOW END POPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A HIGHWAY 281 LINE. LATEST NAM GENERATES SOME MORE
QPF AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PUSHING CONVECTION OFF THE
COAST. AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND...WITH 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BOTH SAT/SUN. MODELS
INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WHILE
THE EUROPEAN IS WEAKER WITH UPPER TROUGH. FOR NOW...HELD ON TO THE
LOW END POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS BEFORE INCLUDING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    85  72  83  68  84  /  50  90  60  20  20
VICTORIA          83  69  79  64  81  /  50  90  60  40  30
LAREDO            85  72  88  69  89  /  70  70  30  20  10
ALICE             82  70  85  66  86  /  60  90  50  20  20
ROCKPORT          82  74  82  71  81  /  50  90  70  30  20
COTULLA           80  67  83  65  86  /  70  80  30  20  10
KINGSVILLE        85  71  84  67  85  /  60  90  60  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       83  74  82  70  82  /  50  90  60  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

CB/85...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
501 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

TXZ239-101045-
WEBB-
501 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING WEBB COUNTY...

AT 458 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAREDO COMMUNITY COLLEGE...OR 5 MILES WEST
OF LAREDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

CB